Solano County sees huge spike in COVID-19 cases – 162 more since yesterday


Tuesday, June 30: 162 new cases today, no new deaths. Since the outbreak started: 1,288 cases, 104 hospitalized, 24 deaths.

Compare with previous report, Monday June 29:Summary

  • Solano County reported 162 new cases today (!), total of 1,288 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 268 new cases, an average of 38 per day.
  • No new deaths today, total of 24, 1 more hospitalized, total of 39 currently, 104 since the outbreak started.
  • Solano reported 139 more ACTIVE cases today, total 209.  This figure has been on a yoyo this week.  For whatever reason, 250 last Friday, only 70 on Monday, and back up to 209 today.  Sorry, I can’t explain this….
  • Testing – Solano county reported 854 residents were tested since yesterday.  Good progress!

Solano’s new Public Health Dashboard design has 2 tabs

The County’s new Public Health Dashboard design includes a second tab (panel), the “Details / Demographics” tab (shown here).  Note that both tabs are user interactive – hover over a chart (or tap) to get details. On this Details/Demographics tab, most of the small charts have a small additional tab showing the rate per 100,000.   Go there and explore the two tabs.  (Expand a chart by clicking the small button in its upper right corner.)

SEVEN DAY MOVING AVERAGE – CORRECTED…

Yesterday’s Seven Day moving average of confirmed cases seemed erroneous and/or misleading – see at right.  Today’s chart seems much more realistic, tracking as a 7-day average the increase of 601 cases we have seen in the last 2 weeks:

Cases are up dramatically here.  Masks and social distancing are still required and important!  Today’s chart shows a 7-day moving average of 27 new cases per day, up from a misleading 5 in yesterday’s report.

BY AGE GROUP

  • Youth 17 and under – 23 new cases today (!), total of 111 cases, only one ever hospitalizedTwo weeks ago, there were only 40 cases among this age group – we’ve seen 71 new cases in 14 days!  I continue to be alarmed for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to over 8.5% of the 1,288 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 101 new cases today (!), total of 739 cases.  This age group represents 57% of the 1,288 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among this age group today, and no new deaths.  Total of 27 hospitalized at one time and 2 deaths.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 27 new cases today, total of 260 cases.  This age group represents 20% of the 1,288 total casesNo new hospitalizations today, total of 35 hospitalized at one time.  No new deaths, total of 3 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 11 new cases today, total of 177 cases.  This age group represents 14% of the 1,288 total cases1 new hospitalization and no new deaths today.  Total of 41 hospitalized at one time and 19 deaths.  In this older age group, 23% were hospitalized at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups And this group counts for 19 of the 24 deaths, or 79%.

CITY DATA

  • Vallejo added 44 new cases today, total of 506.
  • Fairfield added 60 new cases today, total of 423.
  • Vacaville added 31 new cases today, total of 183 cases.
  • Suisun City added 11 new cases today, total of 81 cases.
  • Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 26 cases.
  • Dixon added 12 new case today, total of 51 cases.
  • Rio Vista and “Unincorporated” are still not assigned numerical data: today both remain at <10 (less than 10).  3 new cases were evidently in this group today, unaccounted for among the other city counts.  There are 18 cases somewhere among the 2 locations in this categoryResidents and city officials have pressured County officials for city case counts.  Today’s data is welcome, but remains incomplete for folks in Rio Vista and unincorporated areas of the County.
  • A “Rate” column shows the rate of positive COVID-19 cases (per 100,000 population) for each city.  Benicia is leading the way here, with a rate of only 94 cases per 100,000. Compare with other Solano cities in the chart, and note that the CDC reports today’s rate in California at 547 per 100,000 (up from 534 yesterday).  Johns Hopkins lists the overall Solano County rate at 252 (up from 250 yesterday).

RACE / ETHNICITY

The County report on race / ethnicity data includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 24% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations and 22% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 29% of hospitalizations, and 35% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 37% of cases.  They account for 25% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases and 15% of hospitalizations, but 22% of deaths.

MUCH MORE…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

90-year old Fairfield man Solano County’s latest COVID-19 death

Solano placed on state’s Covid watch list as hospitalizations rise

Fairfield Daily Republic, by Todd R. Hansen, June 30, 2020
Dr. Bela Matyas, Solano County Health Officer

FAIRFIELD — A local man in his 90s became the 24th person to die in Solano County because of Covid-19, the Public Health Division reported on Monday.

He contracted the disease from his family, Dr. Bela Matyas, the county public health officer, said in a phone interview.

“It’s not linked to any of the outbreaks in the county,”said Matyas, adding the man had been in the hospital for nearly a month.

Solano also became the 16th county to be placed on the state’s watch list because of a jump in hospitalizations, which if prolonged, could mean the forced closure of bars.

The county reported a jump of 13 hospitalizations since Friday afternoon’s report, bringing the total to 38.

The number of new cases, however, only went up by eight to 1,116, despite testing numbers going up by 2,504 to 29,620, the county reported. The number of active cases also saw a significant decrease from 250 to 70.

“Most of those cases are from the past and we finally caught up to them,” said Matyas, explaining that many are from the 80 or so farm laborers who work in the Sonoma and Napa vineyards, but spread the disease primarily because of their close living conditions in Fairfield and Dixon.

Graduation parties and Memorial Day weekend activities were also primary causes to why the active case numbers climbed, and now that those infectious periods are over and the county reporting has caught up, the numbers fell.

Matyas remains concerned about another spike because of the Fourth of July weekend.

And that could have a significant impact on Solano bars.

While Matyas said there is a “disconnect” between bar patronage and the actual cause of Covid-19 cases in Solano – again, due mostly to family gatherings – he understands why Gov. Gavin Newsom has to send some kind of message to county residents to ease their social practices.

Matyas said if the numbers continue to linger at the higher level, or go up over a three-day period, then the state will issue a recommendation that the bars be closed.

If the trend continues for 14 days, the state will order the bars closed, Matyas said.

Of the eight new cases reported, three were in Fairfield, bringing the city’s count to 363. Vallejo added two more to take its total to 462, and Vacaville also had two more cases for a tally of 152. The final new case was reported in Dixon, which now has 39 confirmed cases.

Suisun City (70), Benicia (25) and the combination of Rio Vista and the unincorporated area of the county (15) stayed the same.

KQED: Solano County on State’s COVID-19 Watch List after Spike in Hospitalizations

[Editor: See July 1 update: Solano County among 19 California counties ordered to close bars, indoors restaurant seating and more.  – R.S.]
KQED Coronavirus Updates, June 29, 2020

A recent increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations has landed Solano County on the state of California’s list for “targeted engagement,” to slow further spread of the coronavirus, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced on Monday.

While cases of the coronavirus and hospitalizations are on the rise throughout California, the state is zeroing in on counties experiencing the most acute spikes.

“Being on the county monitoring list brings with it additional attention and focus, additional assistance, some additional resources at the state level,” said Mark Ghaly, secretary of California’s Health and Human Services Agency.

Ghaly hopes the designation “really galvanizes the response at the county level in order to … make sure that spread does not increase so rapidly.”

Nineteen counties have been placed under increased monitoring by the state, covering nearly three quarters of California’s population. On Monday, Glenn, Merced and Orange counties were added along with Solano.

In Solano County, hospitals have seen a 23% increase in their three-day average of COVID-19 patients. The spike has been attributed in part to a jump in infections among dozens of North Bay farmworkers, many of whom work in Napa and Sonoma, but reside in Solano County.

State and county health officials have identified a list of steps to improve virus mitigation, including working with vineyard management companies to implement physical distancing measures and enlisting Spanish interpreters to educate workers on public health guidelines.

Solano County details from Gov. Newsom’s Watch List, June 29 2020

By Roger Straw, June 30, 2020
See July 1 update: Solano County among 19 California counties ordered to close bars, indoors restaurant seating and more

First below is an excerpt from the CA Dept. of Public Health’s Watch List, detailing recent increasing hospitalizations in Solano County and “key action steps” that Solano is taking in coordination with the State.

Below that is a detail from the State’s County Data Chart, showing Solano County among those counties with increasing hospitalization rate of >10%.  On June 29, Solano shows a 23% increase in 3-day avg COVID+ hospitalized patients.

[See also coverage in the SF Chronicle: Coronavirus cases climb, Bay Area counties pause reopening. Also on KQED: Solano County on State’s COVID-19 Watch List after Spike in Hospitalizations.]


County Data Monitoring

Step 2: Targeted Engagement with CDPH
County Data Chart
California Department of Public Health, June 29, 2020

Solano County (has variance) is increasing hospitalization. Drivers include a large outbreak among farm workers in the vineyards in Sonoma and Napa who are residing in Solano, as well as an ongoing surge in cases related to family gatherings and other social gatherings on the weekends.  The farm worker cases total many dozens over the past one to two weeks, and the close-contact cases appear to have begun with weekend activities in early May and are continuing to the present.  The large number of such cases overall is resulting in an increase in hospitalized cases.  These cases are not at present resulting in a strain on the hospitals or in ICU admissions but the county is monitoring this closely.  County reports that hospitals in their jurisdiction have multiple levels of surge capacity for hospitalizations and for ICU admissions, if these become necessary. Key action steps include: working with the neighboring counties and with the vineyard management companies to implement social distancing measures; 2) educating the workers themselves (using Spanish interpreters) on social distancing measures; 3) providing appropriate cautionary messages through social media and the press about the risks of gatherings, not social distancing and not using personal protection measures.


County Data Monitoring

County Data Chart
June 29, 2020

Elevated Disease Transmission Increasing Hospitalization Limited Hospital Capacity
Threshold <150 Case Rate >100
OR
Case Rate >25 AND Positivity >8%
>10% Increase <20% ICU Beds Available
OR
<25% Ventilators Available
County Avg # tests per day (per 100,000 population) (7 day average with a 7 day lag) Case rate per 100,000 (14 days) Testing positivity (%) (7 day average with a 7 day lag) % Change in 3-day avg COVID+ hospitalized patients % ICU beds currently available % Ventilators currently available
Solano 185.4  ✔ 23.5