You, me and Omicron, oh my!

By Roger Straw, November 28, 2021

You think YOU’RE tired of this…  I’ve about had it!

Roger Straw, The Benicia Independent

I’m a news junkie.  Every morning since I don’t know when, I’ve gotten up in the morning and sat in front of the newspaper and tv news over 3 cups of coffee.

With cream – well, it can’t be all work and no play.

But waking this morning, I almost couldn’t bring myself to do it.  I didn’t want to see the daily news shows.  I’d heard the early reports yesterday about the outbreak of the new COVID variant – Omicron – in Southern Africa and its early spread to Europe.  And I actually dreaded learning more.

But, no!  I’m the one PUSHING COVID news here in Benicia / Solano County, right?  Almost daily, since April, 2020, I’ve monitored the local and regional COVID news and let you know.  I’ve spent over a year and a half immersed in the daily toll: numbers with faces behind each one, totals that belie pain and loss and grief, words and spreadsheets and blog postings that failed, really, at every turn, to tell the heart-rending stories of friends and families.

I was actually tired of it long ago.  And now this.

You know that I’m not among those saying we are almost out of the danger zone.  I’ve never let up on the alarm bells.  But when Omicron surfaced, it seemed too much even for me.  Please, not again, not more, not more….

How many of you out there have long ago turned off the tv reports on COVID, or at least diverted your attention?  We keep on with the masking and social distancing, but increasingly, we need to plug our ears.  I know my readership is down on the BenIndy.  People are really, really tired of hearing about COVID.

Brian Stelter, of CNN’s Reliable Sources outlines the difficulty we all are facing – early warnings about Omicron with no certainty as to what is coming.  I’ll leave it to him to sum up what we know and don’t know, and to help clarify our anxiety-ridden responses to Omicron.  This is really good, and well-written – read on…

 

Covid news “purgatory”

Friday’s satirical headline by The Onion said it best: “Nation Nearly Strings Together 3 Good Days In Row.”

The blessing of Thanksgiving on Thursday was followed by a curse on Friday: Urgent news about the new Covid variant named Omicron. “We know almost nothing about the Omicron variant,” as this headline on The Atlantic‘s website helpfully states. But the abrupt reactions to the news — stock selloffs, travel restrictions, endless Twitter threads — made Omicron the top story of the weekend across all sorts of news websites and networks.

Now the world is in a sort of information holding pattern, as reflected by this banner on CNN Sunday afternoon: “QUESTIONS & CONCERNS BUT STILL SPARSE DATA ON NEW COVID VARIANT.” Zeynep Tufekci put it this way: “South Africa has gifted us an early warning with Omicron. But earlier the warning, the less we know.”

Author and podcaster Derek Thompson, one of the smartest voices out there about the media and society, said Sunday that “the gap between information and meaning at this moment in the Omicron story is immense. It’s deeply impressive but also discombobulating to have access to so much genetic and virological data with the big-picture takeaway being ‘we don’t really know what any of this means yet.'” He added“there’s something uncanny about these sort of news purgatories where information is abundant but meaning is scarce, and the only reasonable thing is to *not* draw conclusions from an abundance of factoids.”

True — but that’s hard to do when the information sounds alarming and is repeated ad nauseam all across the media…

A two-week wait

“Wait two weeks” seems to be the consensus. Dr. Paul Burton, the chief medical officer for Moderna, told CNN’s Paula Reid on Sunday, “We have to go through a couple of weeks here of uncertainty.” The White House’s readout of President Biden’s meeting with Dr. Anthony Fauci and members of his Covid Response Team made the same point: “Dr. Fauci informed the President that while it will take approximately two more weeks to have more definitive information on the transmissibility, severity, and other characteristics of the variant, he continues to believe that existing vaccines are likely to provide a degree of protection against severe cases of Covid.” So in the meantime, get boosted if you haven’t already. “There’s no reason to panic, but it’s a great reason to get boosted,” NIH Director Dr. Francis Collins told Dana Bash on “State of the Union…”

Biden admin is in “a messaging bind”

WaPo’s Dan Diamond observed that “in interviews, officials keep admitting that Omicron (and the current lack of data) presents a messaging bind. No one wants to sound alarm unnecessarily — but failing to warn about potential risks is a bigger sin in public health, especially if actions now could protect people.”

Politico’s Alex Thompson said on CNN’s “Inside Politics” that he spoke with a WH official late Saturday “and the phrase they kept using over and over is ‘We’re not going to get caught flat-footed.’” That’s why Fauci and Collins blanketed the Sunday AM shows, Thompson said. But what’s left unsaid, he added, is that “they did get caught flat-footed by Delta” last summer. But the risk now, Thompson added on Twitter, is “that they are overcorrecting…”


Let’s inform, not speculate

Oliver Darcy writes: “When there are information vacuums — coupled with the need to fill cable news air time, get eyeballs reading news stories, and satisfy the SEO gods — it can be tempting to delve into the arena of speculation. That’s been quite clear over the past few days. Actual data has been more scarce than speculation on what the variant might mean for the world moving forward. But journalists, particularly newsroom leaders who set the tone of coverage, should resist the temptation to hype conjecture. We still have very little knowledge on what the new variant could mean for the world. Unnerving the public by playing out the worst-case scenarios in stories and amplifying the worst fears of the scientific community in chyrons and headlines isn’t the way to go. Audiences deserve better.”

>> Dr. Jonathan Reiner‘s reaction when I asked him if Omicron should be the lead story right now: No, “because it’s a story that is based entirely on speculation. We will have data from really hard-working scientists over the next few weeks that will help inform how we can put this new variant into context…”

FOR THE RECORD, PART ONE

 — Biden will deliver an update on the new variant sometime Monday…

— Over the weekend I noticed a corollary to the “choose your own news” phenomenon: “Choose your own Twitter thread.” Some threads have ominous warnings about Omicron while others are much more optimistic…

— Johns Hopkins epidemiologist David Dowdy criticizing his colleagues: “In this situation – where data are early & societal implications are large – scientists have a duty not to oversell. And we are doing exactly that. Shame on us…” (Twitter)

— Dr. Peter Hotez, a regular doc across cable news, said “my biggest concern” is not Omicron, it’s that “we’re about to undergo another big winter Delta wave…” (MSNBC)

— “I have come to the conclusion that people love to panic,” science journalist Erin Biba remarked. She called it “completely and utterly exhausting that doomsday headlines and uninformed reporters create mass hysteria before we even have any details or information. Always wait! Before you panic, wait! Wait until you have more info…” (Twitter)

— Juliette Kayyem wrote this on Wednesday, pre-Omicron, and reaffirmed it on Sunday: “Even though the threat still exists,” the US “needs to be nudged into the recovery phase — and only elected leaders can provide that nudge…” (The Atlantic)

“Two years into this horror show…”

NYT reporter Stephanie Nolen left South Africa on Thursday after spending time with scientists there – and wound up reporting live from an airplane quarantined on the tarmac in Amsterdam. She wrote that “Europe apparently panicked” about the variant news “while I was somewhere over the Sahara; by the time we landed, we were told we would not be permitted off the plane.” She eventually tested negative and was allowed to continue onward to Canada.

On Sunday afternoon, Nolen finished her multi-day Twitter thread by saying she is “opting to self-quarantine, in an AirBnB, and keep testing, after the airport exposure I had courtesy of the Dutch authorities.” She expressed frustration with Dutch and British officials, plus the people on her flight who failed to wear masks, “even when I pleaded and we KNEW people were already testing positive.” She wrote, “Two years into this horror show, we’ve just got to be smarter and better at managing. I don’t know how you make people care about each other.”

BIG PICTURE…

“Covid is everything”

On Sunday’s “Reliable,” I talked with Chris Arnade, the banker turned photographer who now walks the streets of American towns and writes about what he hears and learns. He remarked about Covid being the primary drag on voters’ perceptions of Biden: “Covid is everything.” Those three words apply to more than Biden’s approval rating, obviously. Covid continues to be the throughline of every story, every struggle.

And folks who feel forgotten, who feel exploited by “elites,” feel like Covid-era policies benefited the Zoom class and punished them, Arnade said. There’s a huge cynicism towards institutions,” he added, “and Covid has made that cynicism worse.” We’re already seeing some incredibly cynical reactions to the news about Omicron…

Benicia moves back into SUBSTANTIAL transmission, breaking its 19-day streak of reporting MODERATE transmission of COVID-19

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  CLICK HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Wednesday, November 24, 2021
[NOTE: Benicia will keep mask mandate in effect at least until Dec. 7 – click to scroll down for details.  – R.S.]

Wednesday, November 24: Solano County reports 88 new infections. Solano remains in SUBSTANTIAL rate of transmission.  Benicia sees 8 new infections, moves back into SUBSTANTIAL transmission.

Solano County COVID dashboard SUMMARY:
[Sources: see below.]

DEATHS: Solano reported no new deaths today, 10 over the past 9 days.  The County reported 27 COVID deaths in September, 18 in October, and 10 so far in November.  A total of 325 Solano residents have died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

CASES: The County reported 88 new COVID cases today.  CASES BY AGE GROUP: 13 of these 88 cases (15%) were youth and children under 18.  50 were age 18-49, 14 were age 50-64, and 11 were 65+.  Below: color-coded analysis of cases reported by age group, expressed as a percentage of total cases.  Increases are in red and decreases are in green as reported by Solano County since April of 2020.  Note  the steady increase among children and youth of Solano County.  The population of those age 0-17 in Solano County is roughly 22%.COMPARE: U.S. cases among age 0-17 as percentage of total cases is at 9.9% as of today. (From the CDC covid-data-tracker.)

COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION RATE: Over the last 7 days, Solano has seen SUBSTANTIAL community transmission, with 251 new cases (down from 262 on Monday).  CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 cases in 7 days would move Solano up into the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate, and we will need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to rate as having only MODERATE community transmission.

ACTIVE CASES: Solano’s 339 ACTIVE cases is up from Monday’s 325, and still far above our summer rates.

CASES BY CITY on Wednesday, November 24:

  • Benicia added 8 new cases today, a total of 1,581 cases since the outbreak began, and 14 cases over the last 7 days.  This put Benicia back up into the SUBSTANTIAL transmission rate, and broke Benicia’s 19-day streak of recording MODERATE transmission see chart belowMODERATE is defined as less than 14 cases, based on Benicia population.  Benicia will need to maintain fewer than 14 new cases-per-7-days for 30 consecutive days before relaxing its mask mandateNote above that Solano County is also currently experiencing SUBSTANTIAL transmission.

  • Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 2,580 cases.
  • Fairfield added 16 new cases today, total of 12,505 cases.
  • Rio Vista reported 3 new cases today, total of 630 cases.
  • Suisun City added 9 new cases today, total of 3,306 cases.
  • Vacaville added 24 new cases today, a total of 12,324 cases.
  • Vallejo added 24 new cases today, a total of 13,629 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 0 new cases today, a total of 145 cases.

POSITIVE TEST RATE:  Solano’s 7-day percent positivity rate was 4.4% today, up slightly from Monday’s 4.3%.  COMPARE: Today’s California rate is 1.8%.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center]  Today’s U.S. rate is 6.13%. [Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker.] 

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT hospitalizations were up today from 22 to 24 persons, but still above the range we saw during last summer.

TOTAL hospitalizations: Solano County’s TOTAL hospitalized over the course of the pandemic must be independently discovered in the County’s occasional update of hospitalizations by Age Group and by Race/Ethnicity.  Solano Public Health did not update its age and race hospitalizations charts today.  Solano hospitals have previously reported a total of 3,017 COVID patients since the beginning of the outbreak.

ICU Bed Availability is 37% today, down a bit from 38% on Monday, in the County’s GREEN zone, but we remain in the worrisome range we saw during last winter’s surge.

Ventilator Availability today fell today from 77% to 73%.

MASK MANDATE
Benicia’s mask mandate will remain in effect, at least through December 7.  See
Vallejo also passed an indoors mask mandate on August 31.  In the Bay Area, Solano County REMAINS the only holdout against a mask mandate for public indoors spaces.

SOLANO COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS failed to consider an agendized proposal for a countywide MASK MANDATE on Tuesday, September 14.  Recent Bay Area news put Solano in a sad light: all other county health officers issued a joint statement offering details on when they would be able to lift mask mandates (not likely soon).  TV news anchors had to point out that Solano would not be considering such a move since our health officer had not been able to “justify” a mask mandate in the first place.  The Solano Board of Supervisors has joined with Dr. Bela Matyas in officially showing poor leadership on the COVID-19 pandemic.


HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 on my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).


>>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and updated Monday, Wednesday and Friday around 4 or 5pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.


Sources

Solano Co. Health Dept disclosing many previously unreported COVID deaths – 4 more over the weekend

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  CLICK HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Monday, November 22, 2021
[NOTE: Benicia will keep mask mandate in effect at least until Dec. 7 – click to scroll down for details.  – R.S.]

Monday, November 22: Solano County reports 4 new deaths (10 in last 7 days), and 83 new infections. Solano remains in SUBSTANTIAL rate of transmission.  Benicia sees 3 new infections, remains in MODERATE transmission.

Solano County COVID dashboard SUMMARY:
[Sources: see below.]

DEATHS: Solano reported 4 new COVID-related deaths today, 10 over the past 7 days.  One who died was age 18-49,  one age 50-64 and two over 65.  Two were Hispanic/Latinx, one White, (and one unreported).  The County reported 27 COVID deaths in September, 18 in October, and 10 so far in November.  A new total of 325 Solano residents have died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

The Fairfield Daily Republic interviewed Dr. Matyas and reported on the recent surge in COVID-relate deaths:

“Four more Covid-related deaths were reported Monday in Solano County and the Public Health Division is reviewing as many as a dozen more reports.  The four individuals – two men, two women – all lived at home and had significant health issues. Three were unvaccinated, the county reported. Both women were over 65, while one man was in his 40s and the other was 64.  That brings the pandemic total of deaths to 325, with 68 from the recent surge that started after July 4. Of that total, 14 had been vaccinated – about 20.6%. The deaths were from mid-September to the end of October.”

CASES: The County reported 83 new COVID cases today.  CASES BY AGE GROUP: 9 of these 83 cases (11%) were youth and children under 18.  42 were age 18-49, 21 were age 50-64, and 11 were 65+.  Below is my color-coded analysis of cases reported by age group, as a percentage of total cases.  I am showing increases in red and decreases in green as reported by Solano County since April of 2020.  Note  the steady increase among children and youth of Solano County.  The population of those age 0-17 in Solano County is roughly 22%.COMPARE: U.S. cases among age 0-17 as percentage of total cases is at 15.4% as of today. (From the CDC covid-data-tracker.)

COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION RATE: Over the last 7 days, Solano has seen SUBSTANTIAL community transmission, with 262 new cases (down from 271 on Friday).  CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 cases in 7 days would move Solano up into the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate, and we will need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to rate as having only MODERATE community transmission.

ACTIVE CASES: Solano’s 325 ACTIVE cases is up from Friday’s 366, but still far above our summer rates.

CASES BY CITY on Monday, November 22:

  • Benicia added 3 new cases today, a total of 1,573 cases since the outbreak began.  Benicia remained at the very top of the MODERATE range of community transmission with 13 new cases over the last 7 days. Benicia has now seen MODERATE 7-day spread for 8 consecutive Solano updates (19 days, since Wed. Nov. 3)see chart belowMODERATE is defined as less than 14 cases, based on Benicia population.  Benicia will need to maintain fewer than 14 new cases-per-7-days for 30 consecutive days before relaxing the mask mandate.  See update on Benicia’s mask mandate below.  And note above that Solano County is currently experiencing SUBSTANTIAL transmission.

  • Dixon added 5 new cases today, total of 2,576 cases.
  • Fairfield added 19 new cases today, total of 12,489 cases.
  • Rio Vista reported 1 new case today, total of 627 cases.
  • Suisun City added 9 new cases today, total of 3,297 cases.
  • Vacaville added 26 new cases today, a total of 12,300 cases.
  • Vallejo added 18 new cases today, a total of 13,605 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 2 new cases today, a total of 145 cases.

POSITIVE TEST RATE:  Solano’s 7-day percent positivity rate was 4.3% today, down from 4.8% on Friday.  COMPARE: Today’s California rate is 1.6%.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center]  Today’s U.S. rate is 6.64%. [Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker.] 

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT hospitalizations were down today from 26 to 22 persons, but still above the range we saw during last summer.

TOTAL hospitalizations: Solano County’s TOTAL hospitalized over the course of the pandemic must be independently discovered in the County’s occasional update of hospitalizations by Age Group and by Race/Ethnicity.  Solano Public Health did not update its age and race hospitalizations charts today.  Solano hospitals have previously reported a total of 3,017 COVID patients since the beginning of the outbreak.

ICU Bed Availability is 38% today, down a bit from 39% on Monday, in the County’s GREEN zone, but we remain in the worrisome range we saw during last winter’s surge.

Ventilator Availability today rose today from 75% to 77%.

MASK MANDATE
Benicia’s mask mandate will remain in effect, at least through December 7.  See
Vallejo also passed an indoors mask mandate on August 31.  In the Bay Area, Solano County REMAINS the only holdout against a mask mandate for public indoors spaces.

SOLANO COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS failed to consider an agendized proposal for a countywide MASK MANDATE on Tuesday, September 14.  Recent Bay Area news put Solano in a sad light: all other county health officers issued a joint statement offering details on when they would be able to lift mask mandates (not likely soon).  TV news anchors had to point out that Solano would not be considering such a move since our health officer had not been able to “justify” a mask mandate in the first place.  The Solano Board of Supervisors has joined with Dr. Bela Matyas in officially showing poor leadership on the COVID-19 pandemic.


HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 on my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).


>>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and updated Monday, Wednesday and Friday around 4 or 5pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.


Sources

Solano County – no COVID update today, technical error

By Roger Straw, Monday, November 22, 2021

Monday, November 22: Solano County issues no COVID update today, citing “technical error.”  See latest report summary at beniciaindependent.com/coronavirus.