This thing is far from over…
Thursday, October 22: 44 new cases overnight, no new deaths, 16 (!) new hospitalizations. Since the outbreak began: 7,249 cases, 421 hospitalized, 74 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Oct. 21:Summary
- Solano County reported 44 new cases overnight, total of 7,249 cases since the outbreak started. Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 541 new cases, average of 39 per day (significantly higher than the previous weeks’ daily averages).
- Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 74 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
- Active cases – Solano reported 23 additional ACTIVE cases today, total of 324. Last week, Solano reported over 300 active cases for the first time since September 4, and we’re back to that level again yesterday and today. Today’s total is the highest since September 3. Note that only 18 of these 324 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined. Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons? Who knows? To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
- Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons fell by 3 today, total of 18. This despite two other seemingly contradictory reports: a sharp drop in ICU beds available (see below) AND a sudden large increase in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started. Total hospitalized rose from 405 yesterday to 421 today, the first daily increase of more than 1 since October 2. I suspect the County is backfilling old numbers reported for the first time today. (Is it possible these numbers were held back deliberately for a time to help qualify for a more lenient tier under state health ratings? It is well known that our County health department favors re-opening and has been publicly critical of state health regulations.) For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
- ICU Beds – the County reported a sharp decrease in ICU beds available, down from 39% yesterday to 29% today, and displaying in cautionary YELLOW. Today’s 29% is the lowest since the County began reporting beds by percentage on June 22. (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)
- Testing – The County reports today that 547 more residents were tested overnight, new total of 100,496. (Solano has AVERAGED 511 tested per day over the last 3 weeks.) Solano has a long way to go; only 22.4% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested. (And even less, considering that some individuals have been tested more than once.)
Positive Test Rate
Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell today from 5.3% to 4.9%. Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus. The much more stable California 7-day test rate rose slightly today, from 2.6% to 2.7%. (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results. However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results. The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.)
- Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 823 cases, representing 11.4% of the 7,249 total cases. 1 new hospitalization was reported among this age group today, the first Solano youth to be hospitalized in a month, for a new total of 7 hospitalizations since the outbreak began. Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group. But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30, increasing to 11.4% for the first time today. Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low. The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 7 youth have now been hospitalized.
- Persons 18-49 years of age – 24 new cases today, total of 4,307 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. The County reported 4 new hospitalizations in this young age group today, total of 135 hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths in this group today, total of 5 deaths. Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us. I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
- Persons 50-64 years of age – 6 new cases today, total of 1,391 cases. This age group represents over 19% of the 7,249 total cases. 6 new hospitalizations were reported today, total of 115 hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
- Persons 65 years or older – 4 new cases today, total of 726. This age group’s 726 cases represent 10% of the 7,249 total cases.
5 new hospitalizations reported today, total of 164. In this older age group, 22.6% of cases required hospitalization at one time. No new deaths, total of 54 of our elders who died of COVID. This group accounts for 54 of the 74 total deaths, or 73%.
- Benicia remained steady today, total of 186 cases since the outbreak began.
- Dixon added 2 new cases today, total of 465 cases.
- Fairfield added 14 new cases today, total of 2,357 cases.
- Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 57 cases.
- Suisun City added 2 new cases today, total of 527 cases.
- Vacaville added 16 new cases today, total of 1,270 cases.
- Vallejo added 10 new cases today, total of 2,364 cases.
- Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 23 cases.
Race / Ethnicity
The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics. This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans. Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.
- Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
- Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
- Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 28% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
- White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 30% of deaths.
The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis. The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two. Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.