County playing catch-up on hospitalizations, and continuing to re-sort by race / ethnicity. COVID still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – stay safe!
Wednesday, March 3: 53 new Solano cases overnight, 37 (!) new hospitalizations, and 1 new death. Since February 2020: 30,216 cases, over 930 hospitalized, 165 deaths.Compare previous report, Tuesday, March 2:Summary
- CASES – Solano County reported 53 new cases overnight, a total of 30,216 cases since the outbreak started.
- DEATHS – the County reported 1 new death today, someone aged 50-64. A total of 165 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began. In January-February, Solano recorded 66 coronavirus deaths, fully 40% of Solano’s COVID deaths to date! While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday and Super Bowl surge.
- ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 19 fewer active cases today, a total of 257 active cases. Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185, then in February down to 481 and TODAY we are at 257. Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, hopefully quarantined and hopefully staying away from grandma and grandpa!
- HOSPITALIZATIONS – Today, Solano reported 2 new currently hospitalized cases, total of 37. In addition, the County executed its occasional “catch-up” of hospitalizations previously unreported, adding 37 (!) new hospitalizations among the age groups, now totaling 930 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began. Today’s report added 1 person aged 0-17, 12 persons aged 18-49, 9 persons aged 50-64, and 15 of us over 65. [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.
- ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25] Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has fallen in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE, and reported 30% available today same as yesterday. California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had 17 available ICU beds yesterday, March 2. (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
- VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 69% of ventilators available, up from 64% yesterday, but still substantially lower than last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate and our Purple Tier rating
Solano County reported on Tuesday of last week that our 7-day average positive test rate dropped dramatically from 12.4% to 5.9% in just one day. Today the County reported the rate at 6.0%, up a bit overnight, from 5.8%. It seems totally unlikely for a 7-day average to drop so precipitously overnight. Currently, Solano has come in under the State’s purple/red tier threshold of 8%. Even so, DON’T EXPECT A QUICK MOVE DOWN TO THE RED TIER. Before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% measures AND a case rate at or below 31 new cases per day for two consecutive weeks. Solano’s new case rate, by my calculation, was at 41.6 per day over the last week, and 40.9 per day over the last two weeks. (Caution: I’ve learned that the County often uses different methods of calculating, so my numbers may not match Dr. Matyas’ numbers. But these numbers do reflect the County’s daily COVID Dashboard updates.) The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was at 2.2% today, down from 2.3% yesterday.
- Youth 17 and under – 5 new cases overnight, total of 3,524 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,216 total cases. 1 new hospitalization was reported today among this very young age group, total of 19 since the outbreak began. Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group. But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30. Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low. The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 19 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
- Persons 18-49 years of age – 30 new cases overnight, total of 16,679 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. The County reported 12 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today. A total of 258 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths. Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders. I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
- Persons 50-64 years of age – 15 new cases overnight, total of 6,313 cases. This age group represents 20.9% of the 30,216 total cases. The County reported 9 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 249 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. 1 new death was reported in this age group today, a total of 27 deaths.
- Persons 65 years or older – only 3 new cases overnight, total of 3,689, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,216 total cases. The County reported 15 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 404 hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths were reported in this age group today. A total of 128 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 165 total deaths.
- Benicia remained steady for the 2nd day in a row today, total of 855 cases since the outbreak began.
- Dixon added 2 new cases overnight, total of 1,764 cases.
- Fairfield added 14 new cases overnight, total of 8,218 cases.
- Rio Vista added 1 new case overnight, total of 331 cases.
- Suisun City added 5 new cases overnight, total of 2,047 cases.
- Vacaville added 9 new cases overnight, total of 7,934 cases.
- Vallejo added 20 new cases overnight, total of 8,976 cases.
- Unincorporated areas added 2 new cases today, total of 91 cases.
Race / Ethnicity – County’s re-sorting by race/ethnicity continues…
The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics. This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans. Note a MAJOR CHANGE in the County’s reporting on race / ethnicity this week. Prior this week, we were sure that the County data undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a much larger group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities. Monday’s Latinx numbers were virtually reversed with those of Multirace / Other, and the re-sorting by race and ethnicity continues today. (Appearing 3 times now in succession, the new data is not likely an error. It is most likely a revision based on a new reading of the old data.) Note that the remaining members of the Multirace/Other group are still undoubtedly primarily Latinx. This week’s jump in Latinx numbers are STILL likely undercounting the harsh effects of COVID among our Latinx community. Worst case, if you were to assume ALL of the Multirace/Others are Latinx and add the stats for the two groups, you would see that this combined 33% of Solano’s population accounts for 45% of cases, 38% of hospitalizations but only 25% of deaths.
- Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 14% of cases (up from 12%), 15% of hospitalizations (up from 13%), and 19% of deaths (up from 18%).
- Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases (up from 11%), but 17% of hospitalizations (no change), and 20% of deaths (up from 19%).
- Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 32% of cases (up from 30%), 30% of hospitalizations (up from 28%), and 18% of deaths (up from 17%).
- Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases (down from 18%), 8% of hospitalizations (down from 11%), and 7% of deaths (down from 11%).
- White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases (up from 28%), 30% of hospitalizations (no change), and 36% of deaths (up from 34%).
The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis. The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions. For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.