By Roger Straw, December 24, 2020 [Sources: see below.]
Thursday, December 24: 486 new cases overnight, no new deaths. Since Feb: 17,330 cases, more than 725 hospitalized, 95 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Dec. 23:Summary
- Solano County reported 486 (!!) new cases overnight, A NEW SINGLE-DAY RECORD INCREASE IN POSITIVE CASES. In just the last 14 days, Solano has seen an increase of 4,764 new cases. We’re averaging 340 (!!) new cases every day! (source: covid19.ca.gov) Total of 17,330 cases since the outbreak started.
- Deaths – No new deaths reported today, a total of 95 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
- Active cases – Solano reported 135 more active cases today for a total of 1,555 active cases. Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 1,555! Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons? Who knows? To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
- Hospitalizations – CAUTION ON SOLANO HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County “occasionally” updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers. Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized. Today, Solano reported 4 fewer CURRENTLY hospitalized persons, total of 118. And among the age groups, the County reported no change in hospitalization numbers, for a continuing total of 728 persons hospitalized since the outbreak began. [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below. For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
- ICU Beds – Solano County reported only 21% available today, up from 15% yesterday, still in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE. COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano hospitals had 12 available ICU beds as of yesterday, December 23. (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
- Testing – The County report on COVID-19 testing today showed “UNAVAILABLE.” As of yesterday, Solano had tested a total of 159,358 unduplicated residents since the outbreak began. 35.6% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.
Positive Test Rate – 1 IN EVERY 5 TESTED IS POSITIVE – VIRUS SPREADING LIKE WILDFIRE
Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test rate today at 20.9%, up from yesterday’s 18.6%, far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%. Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus. The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on an alarming rise lately, down from yesterday’s 12.6% to 12.1% today. (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results. However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results. The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.)
By Age Group – Continuing the post-Thanksgiving surge, especially in age groups 18-49 and 50-64 years
- Youth 17 and under – 42 new cases today, total of 1,931 cases, representing 11.2% of the 17,330 total cases. No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began. Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group. But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30. Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low. The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
- Persons 18-49 years of age – 237 (!!) new cases today, total of 9,945 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents nearly 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today. A total of 233 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 7 deaths. Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders. I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
- Persons 50-64 years of age – 142 (!!) new cases today, total of 3,552 cases. This age group represents just over 20% of the 17,330 total cases. The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today. A total of 196 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 16 deaths.
- Persons 65 years or older – 65 (!) new cases today, total of 1,828, representing 10.9% of Solano’s 17,330 total cases. The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today. A total of 282 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths were reported in this age group today. A total of 72 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 95 total deaths.
- Benicia added 9 new cases today, total of 469 cases since the outbreak began.
- Dixon added 19 new cases today, total of 1138 cases.
- Fairfield added 91 (!) new cases today, total of 4,957 cases.
- Rio Vista added 4 new cases today, total of 143 cases.
- Suisun City added 27 new cases today, total of 1,207 cases.
- Vacaville added 265 (!!!) new cases today, total of 4,185 cases. Something is happening in Vacaville – stay tuned!
- Vallejo added 71 new cases today, total of 5,170 cases.
- Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 61 cases.
Race / Ethnicity
The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics. This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans. Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.
- Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
- Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 21% of deaths.
- Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 18% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
- White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 28% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 32% of deaths.
The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis. The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions. For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.