COVID spread has slowed some, but it’s still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – stay safe!(Solano race/ethnicity data: see major update below.)
Tuesday, March 2: 48 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths. Since February 2020: 30,163 cases, over 890 hospitalized, 164 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, March 1:Summary
- CASES – Solano County reported 48 new cases overnight, a total of 30,163 cases since the outbreak started.
- DEATHS – the County reported no new deaths today . A total of 164 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began. 42 COVID deaths were reported in Solano County during the month of February. In January, Solano recorded a total of 24 coronavirus deaths. 40% of Solano’s 164 COVID deaths occurred in January-February! While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday and Super Bowl surge.
- ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 130 more active cases today, a new total of 276 active cases. Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185 – and February’s average was down to 481, and TODAY we are at 276. Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, hopefully quarantined and hopefully staying away from grandma and grandpa!
- HOSPITALIZATIONS – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.) Today, Solano reported no change in the number of currently hospitalized cases, total of 35. Among the age groups, the County reported 1 new hospitalization today, a senior over 65, and a total of 893 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began. Accuracy of the County’s hospitalization numbers cannot be certain. [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below. For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
- ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25] Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has fallen in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE, and came in at 30% available today up from 29% yesterday. California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had only 13 available ICU beds yesterday, March 1. (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
- VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 64% of ventilators available, same as yesterday, and down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate
Solano County reported on Tuesday of last week that our 7-day average positive test rate dropped dramatically to 5.9% from 12.4% the day before. Today the County reported the rate at 5.8%, up a bit overnight, from 5.6%. It seems totally unlikely for a 7-day average to drop so precipitously overnight. I’m working on how to report on Dr. Matyas’ complicated explanation – stay tuned. Currently, Solano has come in under the State’s purple/red tier threshold of 8%. Even so, DON’T EXPECT A QUICK MOVE DOWN TO THE RED TIER: before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% measures AND a case rate at or below 31 new cases per day for two consecutive weeks. The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was at 2.3% today, same as yesterday.
- Youth 17 and under – 6 new cases overnight, total of 3,519 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,163 total cases. No new hospitalizations were reported today among this age group, total of 18 since the outbreak began. Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group. But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30. Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low. The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 18 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
- Persons 18-49 years of age – 27 new cases overnight, total of 16,649 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today. A total of 246 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths. Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders. I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
- Persons 50-64 years of age – 13 new cases overnight, total of 6,298 cases. This age group represents 20.9% of the 30,163 total cases. The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 240 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 26 deaths.
- Persons 65 years or older – only 2 new cases overnight, total of 3,686, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,163 total cases. The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today, a total of 389 hospitalized since the outbreak began. No new deaths were reported in this age group today. A total of 128 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 164 total deaths.
- Benicia remained steady today, total of 855 cases since the outbreak began.
- Dixon added 4 new cases overnight, total of 1,762 cases.
- Fairfield added 13 new cases overnight, total of 8,204 cases.
- Rio Vista added 3 new cases overnight, total of 330 cases.
- Suisun City added 5 new cases overnight, total of 2,042 cases.
- Vacaville added only 8 new cases overnight, total of 7,925 cases.
- Vallejo added 15 new cases overnight, total of 8,956 cases.
- Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 89 cases.
Race / Ethnicity – MAJOR UPDATE
The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics. This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans. Note a MAJOR CHANGE in YESTERDAY’s reporting on race / ethnicity. Prior to yesterday, we were sure that the County data undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a much larger group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities. Yesterday’s Latinx numbers were virtually reversed with those of Multirace / Other, AND REMAIN SO TODAY – see below. (Appearing twice now in succession, the new data is not likely an error. It is most likely a revision based on a new reading of the old data.) Note that the remaining members of the Multirace/Other group are still undoubtedly primarily Latinx. Today’s jump in Latinx numbers are STILL likely undercounting the harsh effects of COVID among our Latinx community. Worst case, if you were to assume ALL of the Multirace/Others are Latinx and add the stats for the two groups, you would see that this combined 33% of Solano’s population accounts for 48% of cases, 39% of hospitalizations and 38% of deaths.
- Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 13% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
- Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths. (No change.)
- Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases (previously 16%), 28% of hospitalizations (previously 21%), and 17% of deaths (previously 12%).
- Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 18% of cases (previously 33%), 11% of hospitalizations (previously 11%), and 11% of deaths (previously 11%).
- White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 28% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 34% of deaths.
The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis. The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions. For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.