Tag Archives: Bay Area

California public health juggling the numbers, easing restrictions too soon, doing away with color-coded tiers

Solano County Public Health overly optimistic

[Editor: Note five highlighted references to Solano County.  – R.S.]

California plans to retire color-coded tiers, as more Bay Area counties poised to enter orange

San Francisco Chronicle, by Aidin Vaziri, April 2, 2021
Sam Benson (left) serves water as co-partner Tanner Walle greets guests March 12 at Valley Bar & Bottle, a new wine shop, bar and restaurant in Sonoma.
Sam Benson (left) serves water as co-partner Tanner Walle greets guests March 12 at Valley Bar & Bottle, a new wine shop, bar and restaurant in Sonoma. Yalonda M. James / The Chronicle

California is preparing to retire its color-coded tiered reopening plan as vaccination rates improve and coronavirus cases continue to drop, state officials said Friday, as several Bay Area counties prepared to move into a less restrictive tier next week.

Details about a so-called green tier — which would presumably allow almost all activities to resume in counties with very low threat from the virus — will be “coming soon” as part of the state’s transition toward shutting down the tiered system entirely, said Dee Dee Myers, the state’s top economic adviser.

“We said we would reopen the economy as soon as it was safe to do so,” Myers said during a Friday briefing during which she and the state health officer introduced guidance bringing back indoor events and large private gatherings.

The optimistic update from the state came as cases continue to climb in other parts of the United States and public health officials nationally and locally advised extreme caution in reopening the economy.

Cases are still declining in California, though they’ve flattened in some counties, and the state plans to open vaccine access to everyone 16 and older in less than two weeks as supply improves. Only three counties — none in the Bay Area — remain in the most restrictive purple tier of California’s pandemic reopening plan.

The four Bay Area counties in the red tier, the second most restrictive, could all move to orange next week. Only Sonoma County is currently meeting the state’s orange tier metrics, but the other three — Contra Costa, Napa and  Solano  — could move too, based on an expected readjustment to the metrics tied to vaccine equity.

The new metrics could also allow San Francisco to move to the least-restrictive yellow tier a bit faster, though the earliest it would be eligible is April 13.

Sonoma County, which had been stuck in the purple tier for more than six months before moving to red three weeks ago, is poised to move into orange on Tuesday unless its numbers suddenly tank — as happened with Napa County last week, when it just missed moving to the orange tier.

“It’s hard to predict for sure, but at the moment, it looks likely that we’re on track to enter orange tier sometime next week,” said Kim Holden, a spokesperson for the county’s Public Health Department.

The move would mean wineries could open indoor tasting rooms and bars, and music and sports venues could open outdoors with limits. Sonoma County would join San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Santa Clara counties in the orange tier. The state announces new tier assignments every Tuesday, and the relaxed restrictions take effect on Wednesday.

The three other Bay Area counties that remain in the red tier don’t currently meet metrics to move to orange. But they will once the state readjusts those metrics.

California announced a plan in early March tying the number of vaccinations in low-income communities to an accelerated reopening system. The tier assignments already were loosened once, when the state reached 2 million vaccinations in those communities. They will be further loosened when the state hits 4 million vaccinations.

As of Friday the state was at 3.7 million vaccinations in low-income communities. “It’s very possible that sometime next week we will be crossing that (4 million) threshold,” said Dr. Tomás Aragón, the state health officer, on Friday.

Currently, counties need to report fewer than 3.9 cases per 100,000 residents, adjusted based on the amount of testing they do, to move to the orange tier. Contra Costa, Napa and  Solano  counties are all above that rate. But when the metrics are readjusted, the new maximum case rate for the orange tier will be 5.9 per 100,000. All three counties meet that metric.

“We are currently holding steady and well within the red tier at 5.5 cases per day per 100,000, and especially so when the state closes in on the 4 million doses,” said  Shai Davis, a spokesperson for Solano County’s health department . “We aim to see a downward trend in daily new cases and be able to progress to the orange tier when eligible.”

The tier adjustments also would lower the case rate for the yellow tier — from 1 case per 100,000 currently to under 2 cases per 100,000. San Francisco is meeting the second goal, but under state rules it must remain in the orange tier for at least one more week before moving to yellow.

Despite the encouraging signs, the  Solano County Department of Health and Social Services  on Thursday urged residents to continue to adhere to coronavirus mitigation measures through the upcoming religious and spring break holidays, noting an uptick of new cases.

“The rising number of COVID-19 cases is concerning, especially as we approach the holidays where the risk of spread can increase,” said  Dr. Bela Matyas, the county’s health officer , in a statement. “Being in the red tier does not mean we can let our guard down.”

Santa Clara County’s public health officials also cautioned vigilance as they are continuing to see increases in the number and proportion of confirmed cases of coronavirus variants.

“We’re already seeing surges in other parts of the country, likely driven by variants. Combined with the data we are seeing locally, these are important warning signs that we must continue to minimize the spread,” said Dr. Sara Cody, the Santa Clara County health officer.

As of last week, every variant of concern has been detected in Santa Clara County, including variants that are more infectious and may be partially resistant to vaccines. Officials said the county continues to face inadequate vaccine supply.

“If we can’t get more supply, and continued adherence to behavior like wearing masks, then we do anticipate another surge. I would hope it would be a swell, not a surge,” Cody said. She defined a swell as a less intense surge.

“We need people to hold on just a little bit longer,” she said. “Don’t indoor dine, don’t host an indoor gathering, don’t travel. Even if it’s allowed under the state rules, don’t do it. It’s not safe, not yet.”

Solano and other Bay Area Counties – detailed tracking of status on State COVID watchlist

[NOTE: Details on Solano County below.]

Coronavirus:  How close are Bay Area counties to coming off state monitoring list?

Santa Clara and San Mateo are nearing the threshold

Vallejo Times-Herald, by Evan Webeck and Harriet Rowan, 8/6/20

It’s been close to a month since Gov. Gavin Newsom announced additional restrictions for counties on the state’s COVID-19 monitoring list. In that time, the list has grown to encompass every county in the Bay Area and over 90% of the state’s population.

Is there anywhere in the Bay Area close to escaping the list? We’re tracking the metrics county-by-county below, using data compiled by this news organization. Currently, hospitalizations are trending in the right direction in most of the region, but there isn’t one county that meets the per-capita case threshold necessary to come off the list, according to our calculations.

San Mateo County, with a rate of 12.5 cases per 10,000 residents over the past two weeks, is closest to falling below the state threshold of 10, followed by Santa Clara County, with a per-capita rate of 13.9 per 10,000.

The California Department of Public Health uses six criterion to determine if there is elevated disease transmission, increasing hospitalizations or limited hospital capacity in a county.

  1. Testing rate: Below 1.5 per 1,000 population per day over past 7 days
  2. Case rate: Above 10 per 10,000 population over the past 14 days
  3. Positivity rate: 8% or higher over past 7 days if 14-day case rate is less than 10 but higher than 2.5 per 10,000
  4. Hospitalizations: Increase of 10% or more in 3-day average vs. previous 3 days
  5. ICU capacity: 20% or less beds available
  6. Ventilator capacity: 25% or less ventilators available

Falling out of line with any one of the six metrics for three days lands a county on the list. To come off, a county has to meet all six markers for three straight days.

Under the most recent health order, counties on the monitoring list for three days are also forced to close gyms, personal-care services, nonessential offices, places of worship and malls in addition to the statewide closures of bars, indoor dining and other indoor entertainment. To be eligible to open schools for in-person learning, a county must be off the list for 14 days.

Note: CDPH uses a 7-day lag when tracking its data, while this news organization compiles the most up-to-date data from county health departments. Recently discovered underreporting of tests and cases could skew the data. Because of the faulty data, CDPH has temporarily paused adding or subtracting counties from the monitoring list. There is no standardized number of ICUs and ventilators per county publicly available, so that data is not included below.

Alameda

population: 1.67 million

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 15.7 (+6.6% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 3.7%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 194.3 (-2.5% since previous 3-day period)

Contra Costa

population: 1.15 million

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 15.3 (-14.5% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 12.32%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 98.3 (-5.7% since previous 3-day period)

Marin

population: 263,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 31.0 (-43.7% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 15.86%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 23.3 (-10.4% since previous 3-day period)

Napa

population: 140,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 21.5 (+22.9% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 11.24%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 8.3 (-28.8% since previous 3-day period)

San Francisco

population: 884,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 19.7 (+22.9% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 2.96%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 93 (-9.4% since previous 3-day period)

San Mateo

population: 775,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 12.5 (-11% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 7.16%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 55.7 (-0.1% since previous 3-day period)

Santa Clara

population: 1.95 million

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 13.9 (-4.9% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 7.48%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 175.7 (-5.7% since previous 3-day period)

Solano

population: 441,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 19.3 (-21.5% since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 15.33%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 45.3 (+7.1% since previous 3-day period)

Sonoma

population: 501,000

Cases per 10,000 (past 14 days): 19.8 (+27.3 since previous 14-day period)

Positivity rate (past 7 days): 12.42%

Hospitalizations (past 3 days, average): 41.7 (-5.2% since previous 3-day period)

Here’s who is trying to evade COVID-19 shutdown rules

Individuals and industries with dubious justifications rush to claim entitlement to special ‘essential’ status

The Mercury News, by Daniel Borenstein, April 4, 2020
Operators of Golden Gate Fields racetrack prioritized people’s ability to play the ponies rather than the public health – until the Alameda County district attorney on Thursday ordered the operation shut down. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)

Essential means essential.

We are under orders to stay home. But there are exceptions. These are generally the functions that we need to keep people fed, healthy, housed and informed, and to maintain a minimal level of government and critical public services.

For Bay Area county health orders, and for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s separate statewide directive, the goal is to preserve “essential” services. Similarly, President Donald Trump’s nonbinding coronavirus guidelines make exceptions for critical infrastructure industries.

Now, we’re seeing individuals and industries rushing with dubious justifications to claim that special status. Come on, folks. This has got to stop. We are in the middle of a pandemic that could kill millions around the world, including an estimated 100,000 to 240,000 people in the United States.

Bay Area and state health officials have had to make tough choices. For our own health, and that of everyone else in the region, state, nation and world, we must respect those decisions.

We must use common sense.

Without widespread and effective testing that would allow identification of those infected, the only way to slow the spread of the coronavirus is self-isolation across the nation and the world. Just because you’re feeling fine doesn’t mean that you’re healthy – up to 25% of infected people don’t show symptoms.

Which is why it’s so appalling that, as of Thursday, 12 states still had no statewide orders to stay home. And some leaders show stunning ignorance of the threat.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp finally issued a stay-at-home order on Wednesday, but only after claiming that he just learned about asymptomatic carriers of the virus, something health officials had been warning about for two months.

Wisconsin plans to hold its primary election on Tuesday, but its Republican-controlled Legislature has refused the Democratic governor’s request that all voters be automatically mailed ballots so they can vote at home.

Meanwhile, in the Bay Area, which led the nation with its shelter orders, we’re smarter than that. But it’s critical that everyone follows the rules. And stop trying to wiggle out of them. We’re talking about:

• Firearms dealers who filed a federal lawsuit claiming they have a Second Amendment right to stay open. Apparently, they haven’t noticed that the First Amendment rights to peaceably assemble have also been jettisoned. During a global health crisis, there’s no essential need to purchase weapons, even if Trump seems to think there is.

• A Lodi church that refuses to end services, claiming First Amendment rights to exercise religion. Members of Cross Culture Christian Center should consider what happened at Bethany Slavic Missionary Church near Rancho Cordova, where, according to the Sacramento Bee, 71 members have contracted the virus, one parishioner has died and the bishop and other church officials have been hospitalized.

• Operators of Golden Gate Fields racetrack who prioritized people’s ability to play the ponies rather than the public health – until the Alameda County district attorney on Thursday ordered the operation shut down.

• Attorneys for Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, who asked a federal judge to deem them an essential service so they could serve subpoenas and interact with witnesses before her criminal fraud trial, scheduled to start this summer. The judge, in a teleconference hearing, wasn’t buying it.

• Labor leaders for the Bay Area construction trades, who want to keep working. The Bay Area health orders allow limited construction for critical public services, affordable housing and other essential reasons. But that’s not good enough for the members of the local and state Building and Construction Trades Council, who insist they’re better at sanitizing and social distancing than other occupations.

This is hard. People are making huge sacrifices, including often their jobs and income. But we must all put the common good ahead of our personal interests – as difficult as that might be in many cases. People’s lives depend on it.

The more exceptions to the health orders, the more the coronavirus will travel, the more our hospitals will be overwhelmed and the more people will die. It’s that simple.

How Solano County’s COVID-19 Dashboard compares to other counties in Bay Area

[Editor: Peter Khoury ranks Solano County’s excellent COVID-19 Dashboard 3rd among the Bay Area’s 9 counties.  He also points out areas for improvement.  Read through to the end for Khoury’s call to action.  – R.S.]

A ranking of Bay Area Counties’ COVID-19 Dashboards

Phoenix Data Project, by Peter Khoury, April 2, 2020

The link article from the Harvard Business Review discusses Lessons from Italy’s response to Coronavirus. In particular they cite the need for lots of data, the need for micro-scale data, and the need for data standardization. The Bay Area is largely falling flat on all of these fronts. I rank the Bay Area counties’ dashboards below, but really they should all be unified displaying lots of consistent high quality information on all of them. At the bottom of the rankings I tell you how to take action.

These rankings are a tongue in cheek way to motivate / shame counties to improve the state of their information and communication with the public. However ideally the counties would all coordinate with each other and unify their information so that we can see trends across the entire Bay Area.


1st Place Santa Clara County

santa_clara_new_hospital_dashboard.png

Santa Clara’s dashboard shot up in the rankings from 6th previously to 1st because it is not just one dashboard it is three. I’ve shown here to the left my favorite of the three, the hospital dashboard. This includes such vital information such as ventilators available and breaks down bed availability into acute beds and ICU beds. The graphs on the righthand side of the dashboard will show evolution of hospital resources over time. Really quality really excellent information.

Two additional asks which would make it even better. Create an API or easy way to download the data. Split the hospitalized patients into age groups like Solano county does.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/dashboard.asp


2nd Place Sonoma County

sonoma_dashboard.png

Sonoma County’s dashboard excels. It has

  • hospitalization numbers

  • the number of tests being run

  • the date the data was collected

  • cases by county region

  • the information in text form (if desired)

https://sonomacounty.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=21a1653b79ba42039ff22bcb85fa5b19


3rd Place Solano County

solano_dashboard.png

Solano county promises to have much of the information Sonoma county does but isn’t quite there yet.

The one thing Solano county deserves credit for is separating the cases by age into hospitalized and non-severe. This will be incredibly useful information going forward. I would encourage Solano county to further separate out the 19-64 year old age ranges.

https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6c83d8b0a564467a829bfa875e7437d8


4th Place Contra Costa County

contra_costa_new_dashboard.png

Contra Costa County added information about testing and hospitalizations to their website. They’re also displaying the information as evolving over time which is good. There could be much more information at a finer granularity but its definitely good progress.

https://www.coronavirus.cchealth.org


5th Place Marin County

marin_dashboard.png

Not nearly as good as the Solano and Sonoma but they are still providing hospitalization numbers. Their display of information could use a lot of work.

https://coronavirus.marinhhs.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/covid-19-status-update-4-1-2020-final.pdf


6th Place tie Napa and San Mateo County

san_mateo_dashboard.png

San Mateo isn’t really providing much more than a case count and deaths. They do have this broken down by age but unlike the Solano county data the age breakdown doesn’t give me much additional useful information.

It does show the cases growing exponentially.

https://www.smchealth.org/coronavirus

napa_county_new.png

Napa county doesn’t break down the cases by age but it does breakdown the cases by area.

https://legacy.livestories.com/s/v2/coronavirus-report-for-napa-county-ca/9065d62d-f5a6-445f-b2a9-b7cf30b846dd/


7th Place San Francisco

san_francisco_dashboard.png

These are fixed numbers of cases and deaths with no sense of the growing crisis or the exponential growth of the virus.

https://www.sfdph.org/dph/alerts/coronavirus.asp


Last Place Joint Alameda and the City of Berkeley

alameda_dashboard.png

The Alameda county website is incredibly flawed because of the “* Numbers exclude City of Berkeley cases.” I mean come on guys this is a local, regional, state, national, and global health emergency and Alameda County and the city of Berkeley can’t coordinate with each other?


Take Action

I have found that the best way to improve your local county’s dashboard is to start calling your local politicians and to get your friends to call your local politicians. If you do not live in the Bay Area, go to your local county’s COVID-19 website and place it in these rankings. If you find it lacking, demand more information. At a minimum the website should have the information in bold.

    • COVID-19 Hospitalizations

    • Hospital beds available

    • ICU Beds available

    • Total number of tests conducted (this counts tests run multiple times on one person)

    • Total number of test conducted on unique individuals

    • Total number of tests that were positive for COVID-19