Category Archives: Community transmission rate

Solano’s Monday COVID update: Deaths reported in March already exceed total reported in February

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  TAP HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Monday, March 21, 2022

Solano County’s Monday report: 120 new COVID infections, 35 hospitalizations and 2 new deaths.  Fifteen deaths reported in February, sixteen already just 21 days into March.

Solano Public Health COVID dashboard, Monday, March 21, 2022:

DEATHS:  Solano reported 2 new COVID-related deaths in today’s report, one age 50-64 and one age 65+.  Fifteen new deaths were reported in February, ALL over 65 years of age.  So far in March, 16 County residents were reported to have died with COVID.  A total of 412 Solano residents have now died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

TRANSMISSION RATE: With today’s report, Solano remained just barely in the SUBSTANTIAL transmission rate with 231 new cases in the last 7 days.  Less than 225 new cases over 7 days would move the County into the MODERATE rate for the first time since July 9, 2021.  CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 or more cases in 7 days places Solano in the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate.  We would need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to show MODERATE community transmission.

>ACTIVE CASES: Solano reported 215 ACTIVE cases today, down significantly from 306 at last report, and our lowest numbers since July 6, 2021.

CASES BY CITY – Monday, March 21:

  • BENICIA added 5 new cases today, a total of 3,118 cases since the outbreak began.  That’s over 11% of Benicia’s total population.  TRANSMISSION RATE: Benicia’s 7-day case count dipped into the MODERATE range last Monday and rose slightly to 15 on Thursday, but fell again today to only 10, back into the highly desirable MODERATE rate of transmission.  For a city with Benicia’s population, anything over 27 cases in 7 days is considered HIGH TRANSMISSION.  14 to 27 cases is considered SUBSTANTIAL.  Below 14 is rated MODERATE. (See chart below.)

  • Dixon added 8 more cases today, total of 4,330 cases.
  • Fairfield added 32 new cases today, total of 22,573 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 2 new cases today, total of 1,187 cases.
  • Suisun City added 26 new cases today, total of 5,924 cases.
  • Vacaville added 15 new cases today, a total of 21,555 cases.
  • Vallejo added 32 new cases today, a total of 25,424 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 0 new cases today, a total of 199 cases.

TEST RATE:  Solano County’s 7-Day Percent Positive TEST RATE fell dramatically in March, and remains at only 4% today. Even at this lower rate, SOLANO DOES NOT COMPARE FAVORABLY: The CALIFORNIA 7-day % positive rate remained at only 1.3% today.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center] and the U.S. 7-day % positive rate was up slightly today from 2.2% to 2.4%. [Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker.] 

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT: Good news: the number of those currently hospitalized with COVID in Solano County fell today from 13 persons to only 7 personsCurrent hospitalizations don’t tell the whole story, though, as this number reflects both admissions and discharges.  Only from the increase in total hospitalizations (below) can we know how many new admissions have come into our hospitals as of this date.

TOTAL hospitalizations: Solano played “catch-up” in its Age Group and Race/Ethnicity charts today, adding 35 new hospitalizations, (only some of which are new this week), for a pandemic total of 3,804(The County’s hospitalization numbers for Race/Ethnicity is less accurate, but presented here to show relative percentages.)

ICU Bed Availability in Solano County increased slightly today from 46% to 49%, in the County’s GREEN safe zone .

Ventilator Availability in Solano County fell dramatically today from 80% available to only 67% available, but still in the County’s GREEN safe zone. 


HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 in my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).

Click green text above or on the image.

>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and (as of 3/14/2022) is updated Monday and Thursday between 4 and 6pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.

See also my BENINDY ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).  I have also archived the hundreds of full CORONAVIRUS REPORTS posted here almost daily on the Benicia Independent since April 2020.

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Solano County: one new COVID-related death and 111 new infections since Monday

NOTE: The information below is not the latest.  TAP HERE for today’s latest information.

By Roger Straw, Thursday, March 17, 2022

Solano County reported 111 new COVID infections today, 2 hospitalizations and 1 new death.

Solano Public Health COVID dashboard, Thursday, March 17, 2022:

DEATHS:  Solano reported 1 new COVID-related death in today’s report, a Hispanic person age 65+. Fifteen new deaths were reported in February, ALL over 65 years of age.  So far in March, 14 County residents were reported to have died with COVID.  A total of 410 Solano residents have now died of COVID or COVID-related causes over the course of the pandemic.

TRANSMISSION RATE: With Monday’s report, Solano moved out of the HIGH transmission rate and into the SUBSTANTIAL rate for the first time since Dec 22, 2021, and remained there in today’s report, now showing a total of 325 new cases over the last 7 days (up from 286 on Monday).  CDC FORMULA: Based on Solano County’s population, 450 or more cases in 7 days places Solano in the CDC’s population-based definition of a HIGH transmission rate.  We would need to drop below 225 cases in 7 days to show MODERATE community transmission.

>ACTIVE CASES: Solano reported 306 ACTIVE cases today, up slightly from 303 at last report, our lowest numbers since mid-December last year.

CASES BY CITY – Thursday, March 17:

  • BENICIA added 5 new cases today, a total of 3,113 cases since the outbreak began.  That’s over 11% of Benicia’s total population.  TRANSMISSION RATE: Benicia’s 7-day case count dipped into the MODERATE range on Monday, but rose slightly from 13 to 15 today, back into the SUBSTANTIAL rate of transmission.  For a city with Benicia’s population, anything over 27 cases in 7 days is considered HIGH TRANSMISSION, and 14 to 27 cases is considered SUBSTANTIAL TRANSMISSION. (See chart below.)

  • Dixon added 4 more cases today, total of 4,322 cases.
  • Fairfield added 37 new cases today, total of 22,541 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 0 new cases today, total of 1,185 cases.
  • Suisun City added 10 new cases today, total of 5,898 cases.
  • Vacaville added 22 new cases today, a total of 21,540 cases.
  • Vallejo added 33 new cases today, a total of 25,392 cases.
  • Unincorporated added 0 new cases today, a total of 199 cases.

TEST RATE:  Solano County’s 7-Day Percent Positive TEST RATE fell dramatically in March, down to only 4% today. Even at this lower rate, SOLANO DOES NOT COMPARE FAVORABLY: The CALIFORNIA 7-day % positive rate was down from 1.6% to only 1.3% today.  [Source: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Tracking Center] and the U.S. 7-day % positive rate was down from 2.7% to only 2.2% today. [Source: CDC COVID Data Tracker.] 

HOSPITALIZATIONS:

CURRENT: Good news: the number of those currently hospitalized with COVID in Solano County remained steady today at only 13 personsCurrent hospitalizations don’t tell the whole story, though, as this number reflects both admissions and discharges.  Only from the increase in total hospitalizations (below) can we know how many new admissions have come into our hospitals as of this date.

TOTAL hospitalizations: Solano updated its Age Group and Race/Ethnicity charts today, adding 2 new hospitalizations, for a pandemic total of 3,769(The County’s hospitalization numbers for Race/Ethnicity is less accurate, but presented here to show relative percentages.)

ICU Bed Availability in Solano County remained steady today at 46%, in the County’s GREEN safe zone .

Ventilator Availability in Solano County remained steady today at 80% available, in the County’s GREEN safe zone. 


HOW DOES TODAY’S REPORT COMPARE?  See recent reports and others going back to April 20, 2020 in my ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).

Click green text above or on the image.

>The data on this page is from the Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and (as of 3/14/2022) is updated Monday and Thursday between 4 and 6pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for “Summary, Demographics” and “Vaccines.”  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.

See also my BENINDY ARCHIVE of daily Solano COVID updates (an excel spreadsheet).  I have also archived the hundreds of full CORONAVIRUS REPORTS posted here almost daily on the Benicia Independent since April 2020.

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Entire Bay Area is back in CDC’s orange and red tiers for COVID spread, Solano & Sonoma only counties in red

Entire Bay Area is back in CDC’s orange and red tiers for COVID spread

San Francisco Chronicle, by Kellie Hwang, Nov. 2, 2021
Piper Lind wears a mask and decorated costume while welcoming masked customers to Cliff’s Variety on Castro Street in San Francisco on Wednesday, Oct. 6. Jessica Christian/The Chronicle

The entire Bay Area has returned to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s orange “substantial” and red “high” categories of coronavirus transmission — a step backward for some counties, like Marin and San Francisco, where transmission was previously classified as yellow, or “moderate.”

This comes after Marin County lifted its indoor mask mandate on Monday after reaching key COVID-19 benchmarks agreed upon by eight Bay Area counties. However, the mandate is unlikely to be immediately reinstated; the county’s health officer Matt Willis said last week that an increase in cases alone will not determine whether masks come back; rather he will watch hospitalization numbers, which as of Friday were at a four-month low.

San Francisco had reached the “moderate” level last week, but reverted to “substantial” on Tuesday.

The entire Bay Area has returned to the CDC's orange 'substantial' and red 'high' categories of transmission.
The entire Bay Area has returned to the CDC’s orange ‘substantial’ and red ‘high’ categories of transmission. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Under a framework agreed to by eight Bay Area counties, a county may lift its indoor mask mandate for fully vaccinated people when: 1) its vaccination rate reaches at least 80% or enough time has passed that children 5-11 years old can be fully vaccinated; 2) the county has been in the CDC’s yellow “moderate” level of community transmission for at least three weeks — with tiers defined by case rates and positive test rates; and 3) hospitalization rates remain low.

Four counties — Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco and Sonoma — have already eased some rules, allowing fully vaccinated people to go without masks in certain indoor settings including gyms, offices and college classrooms. But masks remain mandatory in shops, restaurants and bars in those counties.

Masks remain optional for vaccinated people in Solano County, the only part of the Bay Area not to reinstate a mask mandate.

In recent weeks, the rate of new coronavirus cases per day has been under 10 per 100,000 people in most Bay Area counties — a rate not seen since mid- to late July, after the delta variant became the dominant strain in California and drove a new surge in cases.

Santa Clara and Marin counties were the first to consistently drop below 10 cases per 100,000, on Sept. 24, and Solano County was the latest, on Oct. 16. Only Sonoma’s case rate is over 10, having trended upward since the beginning of last week. The overall Bay Area case rate is 8.2 cases per 100,000, compared to the statewide case rate that is nearly double that, at 14.34.

At the same time, case rates have largely plateaued in the Bay Area’s counties, much as they have across California, which raises questions about what might happen as we approach the busy holiday season that will increase travel and send people indoors.

Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert with UCSF, said he doesn’t suspect Halloween will result in a significant uptick in cases because it is “generally a local event, and with high vaccination rates not just in adults, but in adolescents in the Bay Area,” which creates a wall of immunity around younger children.

He said there could be a small uptick in cases during the holidays due to travel to areas with higher transmission rates; waning vaccine immunity; and a more substantial flu season that could increase people’s susceptibility to COVID-19.

“I don’t think this plateau will lead to a surge remotely close to what we saw last winter,” Chin-Hong wrote in an email. “With the approval of vaccines in children 5-11, this will further boost community immunity to keep cases down.”

Here is where each Bay Area county stands on COVID metrics and the mask mandate criteria as of Nov. 2.

Note: The 7-day average case rates are from Nov. 1 and come from state data. The weekly new cases per 100,000 over the past seven days and positive test rates are from the CDC.