Category Archives: Keeping Watch on Earth News

Solano reports 4 new COVID-19 deaths as it moves to less restrictive red tier


By Roger Straw, Tuesday, March 9, 2021

COVID is still dangerous in Solano County – get vaccinated, stay safe! (See Solano vaccine and MyTurn.Ca.Gov or PlanYourVaccine.)

Tuesday, March 9: 21 new Solano cases overnight, 4 new deaths.  Since February 2020: 30,425 cases, over 930 hospitalized, 171 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, March 8:Summary
[See Sources.  Daily archive of BenIndy Solano updates: Excel ARCHIVE
    • CASES – Solano County reported 21 new cases overnight, a total of 30,425 cases since the outbreak started.
    • DEATHS – the County reported 4 new deaths today, all over 65.  A total of 171 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began.  In January-February, Solano recorded 66 coronavirus deaths, fully 40% of Solano’s COVID deaths to date!  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge and the Super Bowl.
    • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 19 fewer active cases today, a total of 171 active casesCompare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185, then in February down to 481 and TODAY we are at 171.  Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, 171 of them, hopefully quarantined and staying away from grandma and grandpa!
    • HOSPITALIZATIONS Today, Solano reported 4 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 18.  However, the County reported 4 new hospitalizations among the age groups, a total of 934 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.
    • ICU BEDS – Solano County did not report ICU beds available today: “Data not available due to system outage.”   In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity.  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has continued to fall in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had 18 available ICU beds yesterday, March 8(For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
    • VENTILATORS available – Solano County did not report on ventilators today: “Data not available due to system outage.”  Yesterday Solano hospitals had 72% of ventilators available, nowhere near last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate and our Purple/Red Tier rating

Solano County did not report on positive test rate today: “Data not available due to system outage.”  Meanwhile, the County released the following announcement today:
Solano County returns to Red Tier (Tier 2) effective March 10, loosening restrictions for certain businesses activities
March 9, 2021  SOLANO COUNTY –– The State of California announced today that Solano County has moved from the most restrictive Purple Tier (Tier 1) to a less-restrictive Red Tier (Tier 2) of the State’s COVID-19 Blueprint for a Safer Economy. Effective Wednesday, March 10, more businesses and activities will be able to expand capacity or resume operations, including indoor services at restaurants, increased capacity at retail and shopping centers, youth sports activities and an opportunity for schools to reopen.  More…
The California 7-day average test rate was at 2.1% today, same as yesterday.  Recent news is that the state will lower the adjusted case rate standard to 7% soon, which would certainly clinch Solano’s movement to the red tier.

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases overnight, total of 3,568 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,425 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this very young age group, total of 19 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age groupBut cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 19 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 9 new cases overnight, total of 16,795 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 258 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 4 new cases overnight, total of 6,341 cases.  This age group represents 20.8% of the 30,425 total cases.  A hospitalized and deceased member of this age group was moved to the 65+ age group today.  A new total of 248 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Deaths reported in this age group now total 26.
  • Persons 65 years or older – only 1 new case overnight, total of 3,710, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,425 total cases4 new hospitalizations were reported among members of this age group today.  A total of 409 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  And 4 new deaths were reported among our elders in this age group, now totaling 135, accounting for 79% of Solano’s 171 COVID deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 2 new cases overnight, total of 861 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 2 new cases overnight, total of 1,770 cases.
  • Fairfield added only 3 new cases overnight, total of 8,293 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 2 new cases overnight, total of 334 cases.
  • Suisun City added 2 new cases overnight, total of 2,056 cases.
  • Vacaville added only 3 new cases overnight, total of 7,979 cases.
  • Vallejo added only 7 new cases overnight, total of 9,039 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 92 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 14% of cases, 14% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 32% of cases and 30% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
  • Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 8% of hospitalizations, and 7% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but account for only 29% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 37% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source
Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today).  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.

Solano County reports 99 new cases of COVID-19 over the weekend


By Roger Straw, Monday, March 8, 2021

COVID is still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – get vaccinated, stay safe! (See Solano vaccine and/or PlanYourVaccine.)

Monday, March 8: 99 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since February 2020: 30,404 cases, over 930 hospitalized, 167 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, March 5:Summary
[See Sources.  Daily archive of BenIndy Solano updates: Excel ARCHIVE
    • CASES – Solano County reported 99 new cases overnight, a total of 30,404 cases since the outbreak started.
    • DEATHS – the County reported no new deaths today.  A total of 167 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began.  In January-February, Solano recorded 66 coronavirus deaths, fully 40% of Solano’s COVID deaths to date!  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge and the Super Bowl.
    • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 86 fewer active cases today, a total of 190 active casesCompare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185, then in February down to 481 and TODAY we are at 190.  Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, nearly 200 of them, hopefully quarantined and staying away from grandma and grandpa!
    • HOSPITALIZATIONS Today, Solano reported 8 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 22.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among the age groups, a total of 930 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.
    • ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity.  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has continued to fall in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  Back in the green zone today, the County reported 38% of ICU beds available today up from 28% Friday. California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had 15 available ICU beds yesterday, March 7(For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
    • VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 72% of ventilators available, same as Friday, and nearing last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.
Positive Test Rate and our Purple/Red Tier rating

Solano County is reporting that our positive test rate today is 6.7%, up from Friday’s 6.2%.  Our 14-day average positive test rate is 6.0% according to my own calculation. The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was at 2.1% today, same as Friday.
>> Tier Rating:  Reports suggest that Solano may move down into the red tier as soon as tomorrow.  Before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to  maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% AND an ADJUSTED case rate at or below 10 new cases per day per 100,000 residents for two consecutive weeks.  Solano’s 14-day average positive test rate meets that standard, at 6.0% by my calculation (and maybe even lower by some formula used by the state), and our adjusted case rate is also within the red tier range, at 7.7 per day over the last two weeks (as of 3/2) according to COVID.CA.GOV.  Recent news is that the state will lower the adjusted case rate standard to 7% soon, which would certainly clinch Solano’s movement to the red tier.

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 23 new cases overnight, total of 3,561 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,404 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this very young age group, total of 19 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age groupBut cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 19 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 52 new cases overnight, total of 16,786 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 258 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 9 new cases overnight, total of 6,337 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 30,404 total cases.  A hospitalized and deceased member of this age group was moved to the 65+ age group today.  A new total of 248 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Deaths reported in this age group now total 26.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 15 new cases overnight, total of 3,709, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,404 total cases.  A hospitalized and deceased member of the 50-64 age group was moved to this 65+ age group today.  A new total of 405 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Deaths reported among our elders in this age group now total 131, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 167 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 2 new cases overnight, total of 859 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon remained steady today, total of 1,768 cases.
  • Fairfield added 45 new cases overnight, total of 8,290 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 332 cases.
  • Suisun City remained steady today, total of 2,054 cases.
  • Vacaville added 22 new cases overnight, total of 7,976 cases.
  • Vallejo added 29 new cases overnight, total of 9,032 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 92 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 14% of cases, 15% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 32% of cases and 30% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
  • Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 8% of hospitalizations, and 7% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but account for only 29% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 36% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source
Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today).  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.

Wildfire smoke is up to 10 times more harmful to breathe than other air pollution

New study finds wildfire smoke impacts respiratory health more than fine particles from other sources

REDWOOD CITY, CA – SEPTEMBER 09: Smoke from wildfires burning in Northern California filter the sun light in Redwood City, Calif., on Sept. 9, 2020. (Dai Sugano/Bay Area News Group)
REDWOOD CITY, CA – SEPTEMBER 09: Smoke from wildfires burning in Northern California filter the sun light in Redwood City, Calif., on Sept. 9, 2020. (Dai Sugano/Bay Area News Group)
Vallejo Times-Herald, by Paul Rogers, March 6, 2021

Choking smoke from record wildfires blanketed Northern California last summer and fall. It turned Bay Area skies an otherworldly orange, raising health concerns over a hazard that is increasing as temperatures continue to climb and poorly managed forests burn out of control each year across the West.

With this winter being extraordinarily dry, the chances of another big wildfire year are high. But the flames may not pose the biggest danger to the most people: A new study published Friday found that tiny particles of soot from wildfires, which millions of Californians are breathing in, are up to 10 times as harmful to human respiratory health as particulate pollution from other sources, such as car exhaust, factories or power plants.

“We’ve been really successful in reducing air pollution across the country by improving standards for automobiles, trucks and power plants,” said Tom Corringham, a research economist who studies climate and atmospheric science at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC-San Diego. “The trend has been a decrease in air pollution. But these wildfires are getting worse.”

Corringham and his fellow researchers studied the number of people admitted to hospitals with respiratory problems daily from 1999 to 2012 in Southern California. They compared it to data from fires, Santa Ana winds and smoke plumes from San Diego to Santa Barbara.

They found that when air pollution of tiny particles called PM 2.5 — for particulate matter 2.5 microns or smaller, so small that 30 of them can line up along the width of a human hair — increased modestly, the number of people admitted to hospitals for respiratory ailments such as asthma increased by 1% on average. But when PM 2.5 levels from wildfire smoke went up by the same amount, or 10 micrograms per cubic meter, there was a 10% increase in those hospital admissions.

The tiny particles can penetrate deep into people’s lungs, enter the bloodstream and increase the risk of heart attacks, strokes and other serious health issues.

Last year, 4.2 million acres — an area 13 times the size of the city of Los Angeles — burned in California, the most in modern times. Fires from the Santa Cruz Mountains to the Southern Sierra sent enormous plumes of smoke over the state’s largest cities and as far away as the East Coast. On Sept. 9, smoke mixed with the marine layer, turning Bay Area skies an apocalyptic orange.

OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 09: Orange sky glows above the Fox Theater on Telegraph Avenue in downtown Oakland, Calif., on Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2020. The unusual orange and red-hued skies were a result of smoke from the Northern California wildfires. (Jane Tyska/Bay Area News Group)

The Bay Area Air Quality Management District called 30 “Spare the Air” days in a row from August 18 to September 16. Soot levels nearly as bad blanketed the Bay Area during the Camp Fire in 2018 and Wine Country fires in 2017. In the Sierra, the Sacramento Valley and parts of Southern California, air quality was even worse last year, reaching 10 to 15 times the federal health standard.

A study by Stanford researchers concluded that the fires last fall caused 1,200 excess deaths and 4,800 extra emergency room visits in California, mostly among people 65 and older with pre-existing conditions such as respiratory problems, diabetes and heart disease.

More is on the way. Wildfire risk is expected to be high this summer due to the unusually dry winter. Last fall, state and federal officials signed an agreement to double the rate of thinning forests that have grown unnaturally thick due to generations of fire suppression. Gov. Gavin Newsom added $1 billion to California’s state budget this year for increased forest management, fuel breaks, fire inspections and fire crews.

But Corringham said that as the climate continues to warm and wildfires increase, government agencies must directly address the health risks of smoke, particularly to the elderly and low-income people. More “clean room” cooling centers, rebates for home air purifiers and better public education campaigns are key, he said.

Other health officials generally agreed.

Dr. John Balmes, a professor of medicine at UC San Francisco and a member of the California Air Resources Board, said some types of particle pollution, such as diesel soot, can be more dangerous than wildfire smoke. But overall, he agreed with the Scripps researchers’ conclusions that wildfire smoke poses a growing threat to the state’s residents as the climate warms.

“There’s no question it’s a huge air quality problem that has major health impacts,” Balmes said.

“There was a ring of fire last year around the Bay Area,” he added. “We are going to have to spend billions of dollars to maintain our forests better. It is going to take years. It can’t be done overnight.”

Scientists don’t know precisely why wildfire smoke is more harmful than most other particulate pollution. One theory is that when buildings burn, everything toxic in them, from heavy metals to plastics to pesticides, is sent airborne in smoke. Another theory is that the carbon nature of the particles causes more inflammation and stress on the lungs than other types of pollution.

“They are saying that wildfire smoke is more toxic. And that’s probably true,” said Dr. Mary Prunicki, director of air pollution and health research at Stanford University’s Sean Parker Center for Allergy and Asthma Research. “Usually direct deaths from wildfires are smaller than the effects from the smoke.”

BONNY DOON, CA – AUGUST 20: As the CZU August Lightning Complex fire burns houses near by, a Santa Cruz County Central Fire Protection District firefighter works in a residential neighborhood near Empire Grade to protect the remaining homes in Bonny Doon, Calif., in the early morning of Aug. 20, 2020. (Dai Sugano/Bay Area News Group)

Answers – and Questions – about California’s easing of COVID restrictions

By Roger Straw, March 5, 2021
Roger Straw, The Benicia Independent

I’m fascinated by yesterday’s mysterious news reports that some California Counties will move from COVID purple tier to red tier more quickly and easily, based somehow on the number of vaccinations administered.

Today’s article (below) in the Vallejo Times-Herald answers some of the mystery, but leaves at least one huge question mark for those of us who live in Solano County.

The State’s new standards include two changes.  In summary:

    • a general loosening of the 2-week average “adjusted case count” – from 7 cases per 100,000 residents to an easier to reach 10 cases per 100,000.  This standard will be triggered only when…
    • …only when the State reaches its goal – likely next week – of distributing 2 million vaccine doses to residents of census tracts that rank in the bottom 25% of a health equity metric known as the California Healthy Places Index .  This includes 400 California zip codes.

The Times-Herald story names Bay Area locations included in the 400 zip codes without mentioning any in Solano County.  My hunch is that there ARE zips in Solano, but the South Bay author didn’t think to include anything in the North Bay.

AND… then the article goes on to say, “The looser standards probably won’t immediately affect Alameda, Santa Cruz and Solano counties, which already are on pace to enter the red tier next week.”

How, exactly, Solano County is already on pace to enter the red tier is not explained here.  Nor is it explained by my own calculations of Solano’s daily case rate over the past 2 weeks.  From yesterday’s BenIndy update:

Before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to  maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% AND a case rate at or below 31 new cases per day for two consecutive weeks.  Solano’s positive rate meets that 2-week standard, at 7.2% as of today, but our new case rate, by my calculation, was at 40.9 per day over the last two weeks.

So the solution to the mystery has to do with my too simple calculation of average daily case rate, based on the daily Solano COVID-19 Dashboard reports.  The State relies on an “adjusted case rate” based on new cases PER 100,000 residents.  So if 449,432 of us (2020 population used by Solano County) are averaging 42 cases per day, that would mean only 9.3 cases are being reported per 100,000 of us.  It would be really nice if the County would add that calculation to its daily Dashboard update.  (Maybe it’s shown somewhere on COVID.CA.GOV? …UPDATE: Yes, I found it on COVID.CA.GOV, and embedded it here on BenIndy – see COVID-19 CASES PER 100,000 BY CA COUNTYSolano is shown at 8.2 cases per 100,000 as of March 2.)

Mystery solved?  Well, not if we are still under the OLD state standard of 7 cases per 100,000, which is only scheduled to lift next week, and then only if 400 zips are vaccinated at a good clip.  Not sure how the author below has us moving to red tier next week regardless of the new standards.

Here’s the Times-Herald story with all the details:


How California’s new COVID vaccine strategy could let the Bay Area reopen sooner

Vallejo Times-Herald, By Nico Savidge, March 4, 2021
REDWOOD CITY, CA – FEBRUARY 24: Anthony Garcia returns to indoor workouts for the first time in months at 24 Hour Fitness in Redwood City, Calif., Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021, after San Mateo County moved into the red tier. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)
REDWOOD CITY, CA – FEBRUARY 24: Anthony Garcia returns to indoor workouts for the first time in months at 24 Hour Fitness in Redwood City, Calif., Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021, after San Mateo County moved into the red tier. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)

Counties across California likely will be allowed to ease restrictions on businesses and activities more quickly in the coming weeks as part of an accelerated reopening strategy state officials announced in tandem with a new policy targeting vaccine supplies to hard-hit communities.

In the Bay Area, the change could mean Contra Costa County will join Alameda, Santa Cruz and Solano counties in leaving the most-restrictive stage of the state’s coronavirus regulations as soon as next week.

And other Bay Area counties that have already graduated out of the “purple” tier, as the tightest limits are known, could in the near future have a quicker path to adopting even less-restrictive rules.

State officials late Wednesday announced a new strategy of reserving 40% of COVID-19 vaccine doses for less-wealthy neighborhoods that have borne a disproportionate share of coronavirus cases and deaths.

As those shots are delivered, they plan to relax standards for moving through the color-coded system that regulates activities such as indoor dining, youth sports and the size of gatherings in each of California’s 58 counties — though they stressed that the state will still have some of the tightest COVID-19 restrictions in the country.

“As we achieve higher levels of vaccine in our hardest-hit communities, we feel more confident that more activities can occur,” Health and Human Services Secretary Mark Ghaly said on a briefing call with reporters Thursday. But, he added, “We will keep our foot on the brake, not on the gas.”

Dr. Arthur Reingold, division head of epidemiology and biostatistics at UC Berkeley, said the strategy is “probably fair and reasonable.”

“But I would also say we have to wait and see how things go,” Reingold added.

The new standards would allow counties to move out of the purple tier and into the less-restrictive red tier — which allows for indoor activities at restaurants, gyms and other establishments — if they record an adjusted case rate of less than 10 cases per 100,000 residents per day for two straight weeks. The current threshold is 7 cases; state data showed Contra Costa County had a case rate of 9.5 this week.

The state will adopt the more generous standard once it has distributed 2 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to residents of census tracts that rank in the bottom quarter of a health equity metric known as the California Healthy Places Index. The index grades census tracts based on income, education levels, health care access and other factors.

About 8 million people statewide live in the census tracts, which are spread across about 400 ZIP codes and include much of East San Jose, East and West Oakland and parts of Richmond, Gilroy, Antioch and Pittsburg. They also include wide swaths of the Central Valley and less-wealthy areas in Southern California.

As of Thursday, Ghaly said the state already has distributed about 1.6 million doses and estimated it will hit the 2 million mark “sometime in the next week or two.”

If that happens on Tuesday or later, and Contra Costa County’s case rate remains below 10, the county would advance into the red tier automatically. Without the new rules, the county would have to get its case rate below 7 for two straight weeks to move forward. A spokesman said the county is reviewing the new criteria.

The strategy likely will have a far bigger impact in Southern California and the Central Valley, where the tightest limits remain in effect for nearly every county.

The looser standards probably won’t immediately affect Alameda, Santa Cruz and Solano counties, which already are on pace to enter the red tier next week. Same with Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Francisco and Marin counties, which have all entered that stage over the past two weeks.

But the new rules could affect those counties in the near future: Once the state distributes another 2 million doses to the residents of those poorer, at-risk communities, for a total of 4 million, Ghaly said officials would further loosen the guidelines for entering the orange and yellow stages, which allow many more activities.

 

Under the orange tier, small amusement parks can reopen, along with outdoor bars, breweries and wineries that don’t provide food service, and indoor “family entertainment centers” such as bowling alleys.

Ghaly did not say precisely how the criteria for those two tiers would change or how long it could take for the state to distribute the additional 2 million doses. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday that California expects to receive a total of about 1.6 million doses next week, though some is earmarked for teachers and school staff. Supplies are expected to increase over the coming weeks and months.

The move to ease California’s standards is a far cry from states such as Texas that have dropped restrictions altogether, said University of California, San Francisco, epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford.

“Prudence is their middle name in the governor’s office and the secretary’s office,” Rutherford said.

For safe and healthy communities…