Category Archives: Test positivity rates

Solano COVID-19 test rate reaches 6.3%, up from 4.1%


[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Friday, August 14: 62 new cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 4,596 cases, 41 deaths.
Compare previous report, Thursday August 13:

Summary

  • Solano County reported 62 new cases today, total of 4,596 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 567 new cases, an average of 81 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 41 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 1 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 314.  Note that only 43 of these 314 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  I’ve been wondering for several weeks now… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who will research this?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 5 today, total of 43.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by only 1 (in the 50-64 age group), total of 196.  (Sorry, I can’t figure how this is possible…)  (Note that the County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I can add the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  For three weeks now, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing – The County reports today that 877 more residents were tested, new total of 62,747.  We still have a long way to go: only 14% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate rose each of the last 3 days, from 4.1% Tuesday to 6.3% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity curve chart which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  For instance, today’s chart shows test results only through Aug 11, when it spiked at 14% (!).  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE. – R.S.]  The County posted a 7-day test rate high of 9.3% on July 22.  CONTEXT: Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The California 7-day rate was reported today at 6.5%.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases today, total of 463 cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 4 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deathsIt is clear that our young people are catching the disease, some have required hospitalization, and it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth are 10% of the 4,596 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 34 new cases today, total of 2,810 cases.  This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents over 61% of the 4,596 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 57 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is very active.  Some are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 12 new cases today, total of 878 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 4,596 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization in this age group today, total of 58 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 444 cases.  This age group represents 9.6% of the 4,596 total casesNo new hospitalizations today, total of 77 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, total of 34.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 34 of the 41 deaths, or 83%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 1 new cases today, total of 109 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 5 new cases today, total of 301 cases.
  • Fairfield added 17 new cases today, total of 1,453.
  • Rio Vista added 3 new cases today, total of 35 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 337 cases.
  • Vacaville added 10 new cases today, total of 787 cases.
  • Vallejo added 19 new cases today, total of 1,558 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 16 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations and 24% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 20% of hospitalizations, and 27% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 33% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 13% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

COVID-19 in Solano County – another death, 75 new cases, positive test rate remains higher than State


[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Thursday, August 6: 75 new cases in 1 day,
1 new death. 
Since the outbreak started: 3,959 cases, 39 deaths.

Compare previous report, Wednesday August 5:Summary

  • Solano County reported 75 new cases overnight, total of 3,959 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 889 new cases, an average of 64 per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death today, another of our elders, total of 39 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 21 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 192.  Note that only 39 of these 192 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations3 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 39.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 7, totaling 171.  Evidently more were discharged than the number of new admissions.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  Again this week, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing 595 residents were tested  today, total of 54,410.  We still have a long way to go: only 12% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate is up from 5.3% on Monday to 6.2% yesterday and today.  (The chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% two weeks ago on July 22.  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate has been falling, and is reported at 5.1% today, significantly lower than Solano County’s 6.2% Health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  Test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases again today, total of 392 cases. No new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak beganI continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  It is clear that youth can catch the disease, and it seems too many youth are ignoring social distancing orders!  Cases among Solano youth have increased to 10% of the 3,959 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 45 new cases today, total of 2,428 cases.  This age group is 41% of the County population, but represents over 61% of the 3,959 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 3 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 48 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Good news, no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is no doubt active, many are providing essential services among us, and potentially spreading the virus!
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 14 new cases today, total of 750 cases.  This age group represents just under 19% of the 3,959 total cases.  The County reported 3 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 54 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 388 cases.  This age group represents nearly 10% of the 3,959 total cases1 new hospitalization today, total of 67 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, total of 32.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 32 of the 39 deaths, or 82%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 92 cases.
  • Dixon added 6 new cases today, total of 211 cases.
  • Fairfield added 17 new cases today, total of 1,283.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 29 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 303 cases.
  • Vacaville added 14 new cases today, total of 675 cases.
  • Vallejo added 29 new cases today, total of 1,354 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 12 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 23% of hospitalizations and 26% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 22% of hospitalizations, and 29% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 27% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 12% of hospitalizations, but 14% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Solano County COVID infection rate rising: 7-day test positivity rate reaches record high of 9.3%


Wednesday, July 22: 125 new cases today, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 2,982 cases, 35 deaths.

Compare previous report, Tuesday July 21:Summary

  • Solano County reported 125 new cases today, total of 2,982 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 669 new cases, an average of 96 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 35.
    Currently hospitalized, 7/22/20
  • Hospitalizations2 additional currently hospitalized persons today, total of 50.  No increase in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started: 130.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the hospitalization numbers in the Age Group chart.)
  • Active cases Solano reported 85 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 311.  Last week we hit a record high of 440 active cases.  Note that only 50 of today’s 311 active cases are hospitalized; a lot of infected people are out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • ICU beds Available fell 2% to 36%.  Ventilators Available rose 3% to 91%.
  • Testing 1,093 residents were tested since yesterday, total of 46,415.  But we still have a long way to go: only 10% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate at a record high of 9.3%, up from 8.2 yesterday.  Last week the number increased each day, from 5.3% on Monday to a 9.1% on FridayThe recent dramatic daily increases are beginning to show on the 7-day average line.  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate is reported today at 7.6%.  Our rate in Solano County is above the State’s rate.  Increasingly, health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  This information is immediately important, as test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  Positive test rates in California and other southwestern states have been on the rise.

By Age Group

 

  • Youth 17 and under – 23 new cases today, total of 305 cases, and no new hospitalizations, total only 2 since the outbreak beganA week ago, there were 233 cases among this age group – we’ve seen 72 new cases in just 7 days!  I continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to over 10% of the 2,982 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 72 new cases today, total of 1,813 cases.  This age group represents over 61% of the 2,982 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations today, total of 33 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 19 new cases today, total of 569 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 2,982 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations today, total of 41 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 11 new cases today, total of 294 cases.  This age group represents 10% of the 2,982 total cases. No new hospitalizations, total of 54 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths, total of 28.  In this older age group, over 18% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups This group accounts for 28 of the 35 deaths, or 80%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 3 new cases today, total of 65 cases.  Benicia was extremely stable with only 2 new cases for the entire month of June.  Now Benicia has seen 15 new cases in 7 days.
  • Dixon added 7 new cases today, total of 155 cases.
  • Fairfield added 43 new cases today, total of 1,020.  Fairfield has more positive cases than anywhere in Solano County.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 25 cases.
  • Suisun City added 9 new cases today, total of 221 cases.
  • Vacaville added 25 new cases today, total of 499 cases.
  • Vallejo added 38 new cases today, total of 988.
  • Unincorporated areas – Although the County still still shows Unincorporated at <10 (less than 10), a little math tells the story: Solano’s unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 9 cases (those unaccounted for in the other City totals).

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations and 23% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 26% of hospitalizations, and 32% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 33% of cases, 27% of hospitalizations, and 26% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 14% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Solano County needs to publish COVID-19 “test positivity rates”

Percent Positive Test Rates

Increasingly, national, state and county medical reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.

Five Bay Area counties report daily on their seven-day average percent positive test rate, but Solano County does not.

This information is immediately important, as positive test rates in California and other southwestern states are increasing.

I wrote and asked Dr. Matyas on June 24 to supply information as to Solano County’s “percent positive test rate.”  He replied next day with thanks and wrote, “We are actively working to include these values on our County dashboard.  I hope we can begin to report on them sometime next week.”

That was nearly 2 weeks ago.  This important information needs to be made public immediately.  It will be important that the percent positive rate is tracked over time, and displayed as a 7-day chart, so that trends are visible and easily understood.

For comparison purposes…

Without any data from Solano, it’s impossible to compare as yet, but here are 7-day test positivity rates from California and other locations across the U.S. (as of July 7, Vallejo Times-Herald):

  • California 7.5%, 18th among all 50 states
  • Arizona 25.3%
  • Florida 18.7%
  • U.S. national rate was below 5% three weeks ago, now 7.8%
  • IMPORTANT: the World Health Organization has said positivity rates should remain at 5% or below for 14 days before beginning to reopen. Currently, only 23 states meet that metric, according to Johns Hopkins University and the COVID Tracking Project.