Category Archives: Tom Campbell

Benicia will review mask mandate in 6 weeks – here’s how

Benicia COVID cases have risen to the CDC’s most dangerous “High Transmission level” since August 11 – well over the CDC’s “Substantial Transmission level.”

By Roger Straw, August 27, 2021  [UPDATED – note new information about the requirement of 30 days below substantial transmission level.]

Benicia’s new mask mandate refers to the CDC transmission levels as its standard for reviewing whether to continue the mask mandate.

The mandate will remain in place for 6 weeks, after which Council will review the order (on October 5).  The order will “remain in effect until the City is not in a substantial or high transmission of COVID 19 as defined by the CDC for a thirty-day period.” (From Resolution 21-88, adopted August 24)

The CDC’s formula for calculating level of transmission looks complicated, but it’s actually rather simple.  First, here is the CDC’s complicated presentation.  I’ll simplify after that….

TABLE. CDC core indicators of and thresholds for community transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2
Indicator Transmission level
Low Moderate Substantial High
New cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days* 0–9.99 10.00–49.99 50.00–99.99 ≥100.00
Percentage of positive nucleic acid amplification tests in the past 7 days <5.00 5.00–7.99 8.00–9.99 ≥10.00

* Number of new cases in the county (or other administrative level) in the past 7 days divided by the population in the county (or other administrative level) multiplied by 100,000.
 Number of positive tests in the county (or other administrative level) during the past 7 days divided by the total number of tests performed in the county (or other administrative level) during the past 7 days. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/calculating-percent-positivity.html

In the Benicia City Council discussions, only new cases per 100,000 was mentioned as a factor for review (unless I missed something).  Councilmember Tom Campbell did the math on the spot, and indicated that Benicia’s number would be 13 cases (later amended to 14) over the last 7 days.

Simply put, >>based on our population, when the County reports 14 or more new Benicia cases over the last 7 days, the CDC classifies us as having a level of “substantial transmission.”  If we see 28 cases over the last 7 days we are in an area of “high transmission.”  The mask mandate will continue until we have been below 14 new cases per week for at least 30 days.

The bad news… Here is a chart showing Benicia’s 7-day case levels per 100K over the past several weeks.  Clearly, we have been in Substantial or High since mid-July.

Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard – ARCHIVE
https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67 
Date Total Confirmed Cases, Solano County Δ Total Confirmed Cases, Benicia Δ Cases previous 7 days per 100K  (CDC Substantial: Benicia 14+)
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 33,651 15 1,010 3 8
Thursday, June 17, 2021 33,673 22 1,012 2 9
Friday, June 18, 2021 33,707 34 1,015 3 12
Monday, June 21, 2021 33,762 55 1,017 2 11
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 33,797 35 1,021 4 11
Friday, June 25, 2021 33,846 49 1,025 4 10
Monday, June 28, 2021 33,898 52 1,029 4 12
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 33,973 75 1,029 0 8
Friday, July 2, 2021 34,044 71 1,030 1 5
Tuesday, July 6, 2021 34,149 105 1,038 8 9
Friday, July 9, 2021 34240 91 1,040 2 11
Monday, July 12, 2021 34377 137 1,045 5 15
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 34461 84 1,048 3 10
Friday, July 16, 2021 34630 169 1,056 8 16
Monday, July 19, 2021 34761 131 1,062 6 17
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 34885 124 1,070 8 22
Friday, July 23, 2021 35193 308 1,084 14 28
Monday, July 26, 2021 35482 289 1,092 8 30
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 35703 221 1,102 10 32
Friday, July 30, 2021 36004 301 1,110 8 26
Monday, August 2, 2021 36249 245 1,115 5 23
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 36525 276 1,125 10 23
Friday, August 6, 2021 36848 323 1,132 7 22
Monday, August 9, 2021 37056 208 1,141 9 26
Wednesday, August 11, 2021 37350 294 1,153 12 28
Friday, August 13, 2021 37664 314 1,167 14 35
Monday, August 16, 2021 37914 250 1,177 10 36
Wednesday, August 18, 2021 38294 380 1,187 10 34
Friday, August 20, 2021 38764 470 1,205 18 38
Monday, August 23, 2021 39002 238 1,216 11 39
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 39329 327 1,224 8 37
More CDC Resources:

Benicia City Council – super close race, Terry Scott down 3 more votes, not quite over yet

By Roger Straw, November 12, 2020
Terry Scott, candidate for Benicia City Council

Scott now trails by 130 votes, with an estimated 140-240 Benicia votes yet to count

Solano County took Veterans Day off, but came back today and processed more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.

The winner status in all races remained unchanged as of 5:15pm tonight.

The one truly close race in Benicia is for the second seat on Benicia’s City Council.  Tom Campbell is assured of first place, having won 8,615 votes.  The second seat is really close, with Trevor Macenski leading Terry Scott by only 130 votes.

CANDIDATE NAME TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
8,615 36.49%
7,561 32.03%
7,431 31.48%

Potential ballots remaining to be processed, as of tonight’s Solano County report, include 250-500 mail-in ballots and 1,500-2,500 provisional ballots.  By my own calculation, Benicia might account for about 8% of those remaining ballots, or 140-240 outstanding votes.

If I were a pro, I might call the race now, given the odds against narrowing a 130-point margin.  But I’m no pro, and Terry’s a friend, so I can’t go there.  We’ll just have to wait for the Registrar of Voters to finish counting and certify a winner.   ☹

Hang in there, Terry!

Benicia election update on Tues. Nov. 10 – no change of status, Macenski increases slim lead over Scott

By Roger Straw, November 9, 2020, 6:00pm

Trevor Macenski maintains lead for second seat on Benicia City Council – leads Terry Scott by 127 votes

Solano County updated its election results at 5:15pm tonight, with no changes in yesterday’s rankings.  Unofficial results today give Trevor Macenski a lead of 127 votes over Terry Scott, strengthening his hopes for gaining the second seat on Council.  Note that the counting isn’t over yet in this close race.

Outstanding votes as of Tuesday Nov. 9, 5pm

Solano County’s election result is still unofficial.  As of 5pm on Tues. Nov. 10, the County reports an estimate of 500-1,000 additional County-wide vote-by-mail ballots to be processed, and 2,500-3,500 additional provisional ballots to be processed.  Benicia’s share of those 3,000-4,500 ballots has not been reported and remains unknown.  However, Benicia’s population is 7% of Solano population, and our voter turnout percentage of 86% is higher than countywide 79% – so we might count for 8% of the remaining ballots, or 240-360 votes, enough to alter the vote for second seat on Council.  The County will update its results at close of business on Thursday Nov. 12, and I will report here on any significant changes in outcome.

Benicia races for Mayor and City Council – winners and losers…
Details and analysis…
  • UPDATE: 17,341 Benicia ballots were received, 85.0% of 20,393 registered voters.  Wow!
  • MAYOR results as of Fri. Nov 6, 5pm:
    Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
    8,522 50.78%
    5,184 30.89%
    3,032 18.07%
  • Steve Young continues with an insurmountable lead, winning vote-by-mail by a huge margin of 53% to Christina Strawbridge’s 31% and Jason Diavatis’ 16%.
  • Jason Diavatis won election-day voting with 36%, then Young at 34% and Strawbridge at 30%.
  • There were relatively few election-day votes, 1,746, compared to a whopping 14,957 vote-by-mail ballots as of tonight’s report.  Thus Steve Young’s substantial overall margin of 20 points.
  • CITY COUNCIL results as of Fri. Nov. 6, 5pm:
    CANDIDATE NAME TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
    8,576 36.54%
    7,511 32.00%
    7,384 31.46%
  • Tom Campbell won re-election to City Council with the highest vote total among candidates and a margin now in excess of 1,000 votes.  By tradition, as top vote-getter, Campbell will be named Benicia’s Vice Mayor, replacing Christina Strawbridge in that role.
  • In an extremely tight race, Trevor Macenski leads Terry Scott for second place, which, if held, would gain him the second seat on City Council.  Scott led by 135 votes in election-day voting, but trails Macenski by 248 votes in vote-by-mail.  Provisional ballots reported so far went 22 for Macenski, 8 for Scott (and 10 for Campbell).  Macenski’s narrow overall margin of 127 votes tonight is subject to counting of more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots, but it looks more and more like Macenski will be declared the winner.  Stay tuned!
Cannabis results:

YES/NO TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
8,617 51.68%
8,058 48.32%

Those voting YES gained a bit, adding 80 votes today, while NO gained only 56 votes.  The difference was in newly counted mail-in ballots.  Provisional ballots were even, 20 YES, 20 NO.  Those voting NO took the election-day voting by a margin of 123 votes.  Mail-in voting far outnumbered election-day voting.  Voters cast 14,870 mail-in votes and only 1,765 election-day votes.  I expect that today’s (unofficial) margin of 559 votes is likely to hold as the County counts additional mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.

UPDATED Benicia election results – Macenski overtakes Scott (Late on Nov. 5)

By Roger Straw, November 5, 2020, 7:00pm

Trevor Macenski now leading for second seat on Benicia City Council – leads Terry Scott by 60 votes – it’s not over yet!

Solano County updated its election results at 5:08pm tonight, reshuffling the candidates for Benicia City Council.  Unofficial results yesterday had Tom Campbell first with 7,245 votes and Terry Scott second with 6,269 votes, leading Trevor Macenski by 92 votes.  Tonight’s report gives Macenski a lead of 60 votes over Scott, taking second place and strengthening his hopes for gaining the second seat on Council.  But… the counting isn’t over yet.  Read on!

Outstanding votes as of Thurs. Nov. 5, 5pm

Solano County’s election result is still unofficial.  As of 5pm on Thurs. Nov. 5, the County reports an estimate of 6,000-10,000 additional County-wide vote-by-mail ballots to be received and processed, and 4,000-6,000 additional provisional ballots to be processed.  (In an email, Assistant Registrar of Voters John Gardner wrote that there are over 6,500 mail-in ballots yet to be counted.)  Benicia’s share of those 10,000-16,000 ballots has not been reported and remains unknown.  However, Benicia’s population is 7% of Solano population, and our voter turnout percentage of 88% is higher than countywide 74% – so we might count for 8% of the remaining ballots, or 800-1,280 votes.  The County will update its results at close of business tomorrow and I will report here on any significant changes in outcome.

Benicia races for Mayor and City Council – winners and losers…
Details and analysis…
  • UPDATE: 16,835 Benicia ballots were received, 82.6% of 20,393 registered voters.  Wow!
  • MAYOR results as of Thurs. Nov 5, 5pm:
    Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
    8,245 50.95%
    5,001 30.90%
    2,896 17.90%
  • Steve Young continues with an insurmountable lead, winning vote-by-mail by a huge margin with 53% to Christina Strawbridge’s 31% and Jason Diavatis’ 16%.
  • Jason Diavatis (surprise!) won election-day voting with 36% (then Young at 34% and Strawbridge at 30%).  Close!
  • There were relatively few election-day votes, 1,746, compared to a whopping 14,396 vote-by-mail ballots.  Thus Steve Young’s incredible overall margin of 22 points.
  • CITY COUNCIL results as of Thurs. Nov. 5, 5pm:
    CANDIDATE NAME TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
    8,293 36.30%
    7,220 31.60%
    7,160 31.34%
  • Tom Campbell won re-election to City Council with the highest vote total among candidates and a margin now in excess of 1,000 votes.  By tradition, as top vote-getter, Campbell will be named Benicia’s Vice Mayor, replacing Christina Strawbridge in that role.
  • In an extremely tight race, Trevor Macenski overtook Terry Scott for second place, which, if held, would gain him the second seat on City Council.  Scott led by 135 votes in election-day voting, but now trails Macenski by 195 votes in vote-by-mail.  Macenski’s narrow final (unofficial) margin of 60 votes is subject to counting of more mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.  Stay tuned!
Cannabis results:

YES/NO TOTAL VOTES PERCENTAGE
8,269 51.53%
7,779 48.47%

Those voting YES gained a bit, winning vote-by-mail ballots by a margin of 613 votes.  Those voting NO took the election-day voting by a margin of 123 votes.  Mail-in voting far outnumbered election-day voting.  Voters cast 14,283 mail-in ballots and only 1,765 election-day ballots.  I expect that the final (unofficial) margin of 490 votes (87 more than yesterday), is likely to hold as the County counts additional mail-in ballots and provisional ballots.