SF Chronicle: Just one Bay Area county is still stuck in the red tier. Here’s what’s holding it back

Solano County case rates and vaccination rates lagging behind other Bay Area counties

Solano County is the only Bay Area county still left in the red tier, while the rest of the Bay Area is in the less restrictive orange and yellow tiers. California Department of Public Health
San Francisco Chronicle, May 6, 2021, by Kellie Hwang

In recent months, coronavirus case rates have plummeted in much of the Bay Area. Most of the region’s counties are now in California’s “moderate” orange reopening tier, which allows for loosened restrictions, and San Francisco moved to the least restrictive yellow tier on Tuesday.

But Solano County, which has continued to struggle with higher case rates than the rest of the Bay Area, is still stuck in the red tier — the second-most-restrictive in the four-tier system.

According to the latest data from the state for the week ending April 24, Solano reported 8.8 new daily coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, and an adjusted case rate of 8.3, which takes into account a county’s testing efforts.

The metrics that the state considers for tier assignment, though, are fairly low, with a positive test rate of 2.7% and a health equity positive test rate of 2.1%. From April 28 to May 4, the average daily case rate for the county was 10 per 100,000, while the Bay Area’s overall average daily case rate was 5.

Dr. Bela Matyas, health officer for the county, said officials know the main reason for the persistently higher case rates.

“People who are not vaccinated are getting together with friends and family and not social distancing,” he said. “It’s been a problem since the very beginning.”

He said the stubborn case rates over the past couple of months can be attributed to younger individuals. The county’s COVID-19 dashboard shows 55% of cases in the 18 to 49 age group, 21% in residents 50 to 64, and 12% in individuals 65 and older. The 18 to 49 age group also has a lower vaccination rate, with 46% having received at least one dose compared to 68% in people 50 to 64 and 79% in residents 65 to 74.

“They are engaging in activities on the presumption that the pandemic is under control or behind us,” Matyas said.

Part of it could be frustration with the pandemic, and part of it could be the “sense they will not have a bad outcome” if they become infected, he said.

Matyas added that it’s hard to compare Solano County to much of the Bay Area when it comes to the pandemic. He called it a “bridge community between the two different cultures” of the Bay Area and the Central Valley.

Vaccination rates are lower than most other Bay Area counties, and vaccine hesitancy is also an issue.

“Very liberal counties have very high rates of vaccination, and traditionally conservative counties have low rates of vaccination,” he said. “We’re in the middle, a blend of the two.”

Matyas said vaccination rates tend to be higher in the southern part of the county that includes Vallejo (61.5% with at least one dose) and Benicia (72.3%), and becomes more moderate and conservative moving north to Fairfield (57.5%) and Vacaville (53.1%).

According to Solano County’s vaccine dashboard, 58% of residents 16 and older have received at least one vaccine dose, while 39% are fully vaccinated. Compare that to neighboring Napa County, where 66% of residents have received at least one vaccine dose, and 47% are fully vaccinated, or Marin County, which has the Bay Area’s highest vaccination rates with 83% having received at least one dose, and 64% fully vaccinated.

“Attendance at clinics is way down” in Solano, Matyas said. “To be honest, there are people in Solano County who don’t want it, who are choosing not to be vaccinated with full knowledge of their decision.”

So will Solano be able to make it to the orange tier? Matyas said the county has been trying, and has consistently provided outreach and education.

“We’ve never been in orange, and have been in the red and purple tiers the whole time,” Matyas said. “I would love to get to the orange because businesses, services and activities are clearly being limited in the red.”

Matyas said officials have achieved the goal of providing the vaccine to those who want it, and have mostly minimized the highest risk in the community, vaccinating nearly 80% of residents 65 and older so far.

At this point, Matyas said the primary goals for the county have shifted to ensuring access to vaccines for anyone who has had trouble receiving them, and helping those who are hesitant get past their hesitancy.

Dr. Matyas: ‘The numbers remain too high’

As state’s major cities progress, Solano County wallows in red tier with COVID

Dr. Bela Matyas, Public Health Officer, Solano County Health and Social Services. (File photo-Joel Rosenbaum — The Reporter)

Vallejo Times-Herald, by Richard Freedman, May 6, 2021

It’s said that “close” is good in horseshoes and hand grenades. Not so good if a county is stuck in a restrictive COVID-19 tier.

Enter Solano County, seemingly cemented to the “red tier” while every other county in the Bay Area is either orange or, in the case of San Francisco, the much less-restrictive yellow tier.

Solano County is inching ever so close, but again, it matters not unless the mandatory limit of positive COVID-19 cases is achieved.

Daily case counts have been averaging about 35 to 45 for several weeks, and they need to get below 27, according to Dr. Bela Matyas, Health Officer for Solano County Public Health.

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“Our daily case numbers remain too high on average for us to be able to move to the orange tier. Given that we are in the red tier this week, it would be at least two weeks before we could move down,” Matyas added.

Seven of the state’s 58 counties — including Los Angeles County, the one-time epicenter of rampant COVID-19 cases — are now in the so-called yellow tier, which is the final stage of a phased reopening plan. The five other counties are all remote areas of Northern California.

“The assignment to a tier is based not on total numbers but on the rate of numbers, which takes into account the large differences in county sizes,” Matyas continued. “That said, L.A. County is seeing less transmission of disease on a per-person basis than we are. I think it has to do largely with different behaviors being practiced in the two counties — more instances of family/social gatherings without social distancing here in Solano than in L.A.”

A longtime proponent of masking up and social distancing pre-COVID to prevent the seasonal flu and common cold, Matyas believes “the best path is to increase community vaccination levels, which will both protect the vaccinated individuals themselves and reduce the ability of the virus to circulate in the community. Obviously, adhering to social distancing recommendations is essential as well.”

The tier system governs crowd sizes — with and without proof of vaccination — allowed at both indoor and outdoor venue events, such as sporting events and live performances.

Whatever tier Solano County reaches is presumably moot in four weeks, as the governor declared that California re-open June 15.

“It doesn’t matter what tier we are in on that date. Solano County will re-open with the rest of the state,” Matyas said.

Though the economy would essentially fully re-open, mask mandates would remain in place.

Close to 13 million Californians are now fully vaccinated with either one shot of the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine or two shots of either Pfizer or Moderna. More than 6.1 million others are partially vaccinated with a first dose of Pfizer or Moderna, according to the California Department of Public Health.

The reduced demand eliminates the need for the huge sites like the Solano County Fairgrounds, notes Benjamin Gammon, Emergency Medical Services Coordinator for Solano County.

Gammon said by phone Thursday that “the clinics are not filling up” and he doesn’t see a return to the fairgrounds “unless Pfizer goes 12 (years old) and up.”

Gammon said that 2,500 doses were available at a recent clinic at Vacaville High School and 1,300 doses were administered.

Again, he said, “we’re just not seeing the push anymore.”

The next scheduled Vallejo mass vaccination availability is next Thursday, 2 to 7 p.m., at the Filipino Community Center, 611 Amador St. Ages 18 and older are eligible. Vaccinations are no-cost and available regardless of health insurance or immigration status. Either the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine or the first of the two-dose Moderna vaccine (with a June 6 return for a second dose) are available.

For more information or to schedule an appointment, visit facebook.com/filipinocommunityofsolanocounty/

A single-day increase of 56 new COVID patients in Solano County


By Roger Straw, Thursday, May 6, 2021

56 new cases reported in Solano County today.  Percent positive rate remains high.  Stay safe!  See also: People with mild COVID can have long-term health problems

Solano County COVID report on Thursday, May 6.
[Source: see far below.  See also my ARCHIVE spreadsheet of daily Solano COVID updates.]
Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard – SUMMARY:

On May 6, Solano County reported 56 new COVID cases.  We saw 1,288 new cases in April, an average of 43 per day.  Reports are that Solano will not be joining all other Bay Area counties in opening to less restrictive tiers anytime soon.  Solano’s Active cases rose today from 310 to 312.  Our percent positivity rate fell slightly today, but remains high at 7.4%.  We have not seen rates this high since Feb. 22.

Cases among children and youth have increased alarmingly
Percent of today’s new cases, age groups, May 6, 2021
New Cases
0-17 years
New Cases
18-49 years
New Cases
50-64 years
New Cases
65+ years
TOTAL New Cases Today
12 27 14 3 56
21% 48% 25% 5% 100%

Compare TODAY (above) with percentages since LAST SUMMER (below).  Note especially children and youth 0-17 years:

Percent of  ALL CASES SINCE JUNE 2020, age groups as of May 6, 2021
Date Cases
% 0-17
Cases
% 18-49
Cases
% 50-64
Cases
% 65+
6/5/20 5.8% 45.2% 25.6% 23.3%
7/1/20 9.0% 57.5% 20.1% 13.4%
8/31/20 11.0% 60.6% 19.2% 9.2%
5/6/21 12.2% 55.4% 20.5% 11.9%
Hospitalizations – very little information…

The Solano County COVID dashboard Summary tab only shows active hospitalizations for the current day (22 today, see image at top of page).  This number represents the total currently hospitalized after yesterday’s admissions and discharges.  Little can be learned from this about the accumulated total of hospitalizations since the outbreak began.

Screenshot from Solano’s Demographics Tab, Hospitalizations by Age Group.  Click image for larger view.

But on the Demographics tab of the County dashboard, the County “occasionally” updates the accumulated total of hospitalizations by age group.  These numbers have not been updated since early April, so it isn’t possible to determine whether there has been an increasing number of hospitalizations among our children and young adults.  I have asked Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas for an update on these numbers, and he replied by email on 4/29 that he “believes” his staff will update these numbers soon, and “will double check.”  But no update as yet.  So age group hospitalization totals on the dashboard remain old and unchanged:

Solano County Total COVID Hospitalizations by AGE GROUPS as of Early April
Hospitalizations
Age 0-17
Hospitalizations
Age 18-49
Hospitalizations
Age 50-64
Hospitalizations
Age 65+
    26     323     330     591

>> The virus is still on the move here.  Stay safe, get vaccinated, wear a mask and social distance!  We will get through this together.

Cases by City on Thursday, May 6:

  • Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 973 cases since the outbreak began.  Benicia averaged 2 cases per day in April.
  • Dixon added 3 new cases today, total of 1,876 cases.
  • Fairfield added 22 new cases today, total of 8,870 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 369 cases.
  • Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 2,240 cases.
  • Vacaville added 11 new cases today, total of 8,546 cases.
  • Vallejo added 14 new cases today, total of 9,722 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 102 cases.

COMPARE: Screenshots from Solano County COVID Dashboard on Wednesday, May 5:


The data on this page is from today’s and the previous Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and updated weekdays around 4 or 5pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for SummaryDemographics and Vaccines.  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.


Sources

COVID in Solano County – 29 of us reported sick today, no new hospitalization updates


By Roger Straw, Wednesday, May 5, 2021

29 new cases in our County today.  Percent positive rate remains high.  See also: People with mild COVID can have long-term health problems

Solano County COVID report on Wednesday, May 5.
[Source: see far below.  See also my ARCHIVE spreadsheet of daily Solano COVID updates.]
Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard – SUMMARY:

On May 5, Solano County reported 29 new COVID cases.  We saw 1,288 new cases in April, an average of 43 per day.  Reports are that Solano will not be joining all other Bay Area counties in the State’s orange tier anytime soon.  Solano’s Active cases remained steady today at 310.  Our percent positivity rate fell slightly today, but remains high at 7.9%.  We have not seen rates this high since Feb. 22.

Cases among children and youth have increased alarmingly
Percent of new cases today, age groups, May 5, 2021
New Cases
0-17 years
New Cases
18-49 years
New Cases
50-64 years
New Cases
65+ years
TOTAL New Cases Today
5 15 5 5 30
17% 50% 17% 17% 100%

Compare TODAY (above) with percentages since LAST SUMMER (below).  Since last June, cases among children and youths 0-17 years of age have increased dramatically as a percentage of total cases.  This chart shows the changes among age groups over the past 11 months:

Solano County COVID-19 – CASES SINCE JUNE 2020, AGE GROUP % OF TOTAL
Date Cases
% 0-17
Cases
% 18-49
Cases
% 50-64
Cases
% 65+
6/5/20 5.8% 45.2% 25.6% 23.3%
7/1/20 9.0% 57.5% 20.1% 13.4%
8/31/20 11.0% 60.6% 19.2% 9.2%
5/5/21 12.2% 55.4% 20.5% 11.9%
Hospitalizations – very little information…

The Solano County COVID dashboard Summary tab only shows active hospitalizations for the current day (23 today, see image at top of page).  This number represents the total currently hospitalized after yesterday’s admissions and discharges.  Little can be learned from this about the accumulated total of hospitalizations since the outbreak began.

Screenshot from Solano’s Demographics Tab, Hospitalizations by Age Group.  Click image for larger view.

But on the Demographics tab of the County dashboard, the County “occasionally” updates the accumulated total of hospitalizations by age group.  These numbers have not been updated since early April, so it isn’t possible to determine whether there has been an increasing number of hospitalizations among our children and young adults.  I have asked Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas for an update on these numbers, and he replied by email on 4/29 that he “believes” his staff will update these numbers soon, and “will double check.”  But no update as yet.  So age group hospitalization totals on the dashboard remain old and unchanged:

Solano County Total COVID Hospitalizations by AGE GROUPS as of Early April
Hospitalizations
Age 0-17
Hospitalizations
Age 18-49
Hospitalizations
Age 50-64
Hospitalizations
Age 65+
    26     323     330     591

>> The virus is still on the move here.  Stay safe, get vaccinated, wear a mask and social distance!  We will get through this together.

Cases by City on Wednesday, May 5:

  • Benicia remained steady today, total of 972 cases since the outbreak began.  Benicia averaged 2 cases per day in April.
  • Dixon added 2 new cases today, total of 1,873 cases.
  • Fairfield added 7 new cases today, total of 8,848 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 369 cases.
  • Suisun City added 3 new cases today, total of 2,235 cases.
  • Vacaville added 7 new cases today, total of 8,535 cases.
  • Vallejo added 10 new cases today, total of 9,708 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 102 cases.

COMPARE: Screenshots from Solano County COVID Dashboard on Tuesday, May 4:


The data on this page is from today’s and the previous Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard.  The Dashboard is full of much more information and updated weekdays around 4pm.  On the County’s dashboard, you can hover a mouse or click on an item for more information.  Note the tabs at top for SummaryDemographics and Vaccines.  Click here to go to today’s Solano County Dashboard.


Sources