[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Thursday, September 17: 47 new cases overnight, 3 new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 6,054 cases, 55 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Sept 16:Summary

• Solano County reported 47 new cases today, total of 6,054 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last week, Solano reported 249 new cases, an average of 36 per day.
• Deaths – 3 new deaths today, total of 55 Solano deaths.
• Active cases – Solano reported 35 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 251.  Note that only 29 of these 251 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has no reporting on contact tracing.
• Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons remained unchanged today, total of 29.  This despite the LARGE INCREASE in total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, plus 15 today, total of 316.  Evidently the same number released as admitted (see age group hospitalization stats below).
• ICU Beds –The County reported 43% of ICU beds available, unchanged from yesterday and down from 56% on Monday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
• Testing – The County reports today that only 338 residents were tested since yesterday, new total of 82,595.  Solano has a long way to go: only 18.5% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate remained at 3.1%.  I was skeptical about the remarkably low rate last week: our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has been jumping all over the place lately (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, just two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Last week we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California relatively stable 7-day test rate fell slightly today from 3.6% to 3.4%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 4 new case today, total of 661 cases, representing 10.9% of the 6,054 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 5 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 5 youth have been hospitalized.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 19 new cases today, total of 3,626 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the 6,054 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 9 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 103 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  (A result of Labor Day gatherings?)  No new deaths among this age group today, total of 4 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 10 new cases today, total of 1,160 cases.  This age group represents 19.2% of the 6,054 total cases.
  3 new hospitalizations today, total of 85 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  3 new deaths in this age group today, a total of 11 deaths.  Complications from Labor Day?  Or maybe from the Parkrose healthcare facility (see more below)?
• Persons 65 years or older – Spike: On Monday, I reported Solano’s LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASE in new cases in this age group since I began keeping records on April 20: 31 new cases.  Also 3 new hospitalizations and 2 deaths.  The County reported 4 new cases yesterday, and 14 new cases today.  This group also saw 3 new hospitalizations today, (and thankfully, no new deaths).  I believe recent increases are related to news of an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 606 cases represent 10% of the 6,054 total cases.  Total hospitalizations since the pandemic began number 123 today, and deaths total 40 in this age group.  In this older age group, 20.3% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 40 of the 55 deaths, or 73%.

City Data

• Benicia added 3 new cases today, total of 158 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 3 new cases today, total of 402 cases.
• Fairfield added 22 new cases today, total of 1,983.
• Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 41 cases.
• Suisun City added 2 new cases today, total of 436 cases.
• Vacaville added 7 new cases today, total of 1,005 cases.
• Vallejo added 9 new cases today, total of 2,010 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added no new cases today, total of 19 cases.

Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths by Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 33% of hospitalizations, and 26% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations and 20% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.