Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County COVID alert – 396 new cases, another death, test rate at all-time high

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

All numbers skyrocketing.  County fails to update on Current Hospitalizations and ICU Beds Available

Monday, November 23: 396 new cases over the weekend, 1 death.  Since the outbreak began: 9,745 cases, over 550 hospitalized, 81 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Nov. 20:Summary

  • Solano County reported 396 new cases over the weekend, with nearly all other numbers skyrocketing.  As of today, Solano has seen an average of 115 new cases per day over the last 14 days!  Total of 9,745 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – 1 new death reported today, one of our elders, aged 65 or over, a total of 81 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 60 more active cases today, total of 778.  Active cases have increased alarmingly lately – COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284 – today we are at 778!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – CAUTION: According to a November 7 email from Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively.  This accounts for the sudden 106 additions on October 29, a one-day increase of 25% in total hospitalizations.  Those 106 had never been recorded as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  My take on this is that the County’s daily updates on hospitalizations are nearly meaningless. Today it seems the County may agree: they didn’t report on hospitalizations at all.  Maybe they’re working on their occasional big catchup?  Stay tuned for tomorrow’s report.   Last we knew, the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons was 51.  TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began was 549 as of last Friday.  [For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.]
  • ICU Beds – The County failed to report on availability of ICU beds today.  The percentage has fluctuated widely over the last week or so, ranging from 21% to last Friday’s 52%.  (Continuing – no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – highest ever, 12.2%

Solano County reported an all-time high for our 7-day average positive test rate today, rising from Friday’s 10.8% to 12.2% (!) – well over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, and fell slightly today from 5.9% to 5.8%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 43 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 1,128 cases, representing 11.6% of the 9,745 total cases.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 237 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 5,682 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups. At least 182 persons in this age group have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 84 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 1,890 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 9,745 total cases.  At least 152 persons in this age group have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 32 new cases today, total of 1040, representing 10.8% of Solano’s 9,745total cases.  At least 202 persons in this age group have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, total of 60 of our elders who died of COVID.  This group accounts for 60 of the 81 total deaths, or 74%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 16 new cases over the weekend, total of 267 cases since the outbreak began. 
  • Dixon added 39 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 643 cases.
  • Fairfield added 98 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 3.001 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 2 new cases over the weekend, total of 77 cases.
  • Suisun City added 33 (!!) new cases over the weekend, total of 671 cases.
  • Vacaville added 120 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 1,958 cases.
  • Vallejo added 85 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,093 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas added 3 new cases over the weekend, total of 35 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 24% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 25% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.