ALARMING!  Nearly 300 NEW cases in Solano overnight, 1200 ACTIVE cases, 4 new deaths reported today, positive test rate double the purple tier threshold…

By Roger Straw, December 4, 2020

We may not have arrived at Governor Newsom’s regional stay-at-home status, but I’m there now.  I’m staying home, and you should, too.  Solano County is experiencing an alarming surge in COVID-19.  Stay home if you can, wear a mask if you must go out, don’t stay long anywhere but home, and keep your distance more carefully than ever before.

We won’t get a County update over the weekend, but you can bet the numbers will continue to climb.  Here are the overnight numbers – take note!

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.  ALSO see important daily updates from another source, COVID19.CA.GOV: here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations.]

Friday, December 4: 294 (!!!) new cases overnight, 4 new deaths.  Since Feb: 11,413 cases, more than 600 hospitalized, 85 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Dec. 3:Summary

• Solano County reported a startling 294 (!!!) new cases overnight.  As of today, Solano has seen an average of 126 new cases per day over the last 14 days! (source: covid19.ca.gov)  Total of 11,413 cases since the outbreak started.
• Deaths – 4 new deaths reported today, one aged 50-64, and three aged 65 or over, a total of 85 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
• Active cases – Solano reported 134 (!) more active cases today.  New total of 1,196 active cases – another record high for Solano County.  Active cases have increased alarmingly lately – COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284 – today we are at 1,196!!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
• Hospitalizations – (For best info, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.)  CAUTION ON COUNTY REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  So the County’s daily updates on hospitalizations are nearly meaningless. Today, Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons increased by 4, total of 66, but TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began supposedly remained unchanged today, a total of 603 of all ages hospitalized since the outbreak began.  The County will likely update this figure at a later date.  [For my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.]
• ICU Beds – (For detailed info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.)  The County reported a decrease in ICU beds available today, down from 40% to 35%.
• Testing – The County reports today that 976 residents were tested since yesterday, a total of 130,372 unduplicated residents tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.  29.1% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – Another Solano record high of 16.8%

For the for the second day in a row, Solano County reported a new record high 7-day average positive test rate.  Today’s rate of 16.8% is up from yesterday’s 15.8%, far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, and rose substantially today from 7.7% to 8.5%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 28 (!) new cases today, total of 1,299 cases, representing 11.4% of the 11,413 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 196 (!) new cases today, total of 6,683 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 194 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 45 (!) new cases today, total of 2,227 cases.  This age group represents nearly 20% of the 11,413 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 162 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, a total of 16 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 25 new cases today, total of 1,198, representing 10.5% of Solano’s 11,413 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 233 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  3 new deaths in this age group today, total of 63 of our elders who died of COVID, accounting for 74% of Solano’s 85 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 7 new cases today, total of 300 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 27 new cases today, total of 814 cases.
• Fairfield added 92 new cases today, total of 3,430 cases.
• Rio Vista added 2 new cases today, total of 97 cases.
• Suisun City added 19 new cases today, total of 789 cases.
• Vacaville added 68 new cases today, total of 2,363 cases.
• Vallejo added 79 new cases today, total of 3,580 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 40 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 22% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 26% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations and 32% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is USUALLY full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.