By Roger Straw, Thursday, February 11, 2021

COVID is still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – stay safe!

Thursday, February 11: 79 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since February 2020: 29,251 cases, over 865 hospitalized, 140 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, February 10:Summary

• • CASES – Solano County reported 79 new cases overnight, a total of 29,251 cases since the outbreak started.  In the month of January, Solano added 8,495 new cases, for an average of 274 new cases per day.
  • DEATHS – the County reported no new deaths overnight, a total of 140 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.  18 Solano County COVID deaths were reported in the first 9 days of February.  In the month of January, Solano recorded 24 coronavirus deaths.  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge.  And we may see another surge in cases and deaths after the Super Bowl.
  • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 17 more active cases today, a total of 841 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185 – and TODAY we are at 841.  Better, but still, is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  My guess is we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • HOSPITALIZATIONS – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.)  Today, Solano reported 1 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 80.  However, the County reported 12 new hospitalizations among age groups, a total of 867 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  2 of those hospitalized were ages 18-49; 1 was 50-64, and 9 were over 65 years of age.  Accuracy of hospitalization numbers cannot be certain – note>>  In a Dec. 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the County’s count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County fell back into the YELLOW DANGER ZONE, but today moved up barely into the green zone, reporting 33% available today, up from 28% yesterday.  The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had only 12 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, February 10.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 54% of ventilators available, down from yesterday’s 62%, and down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE of 11.7% – STILL HIGH, VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY SAFE!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test is increasing again.  Today’s rate is 11.7%, up from Monday’s 9.6%, and well above the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was 4.6% today, down from yesterday’s 4.8%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 22 new cases overnight, total of 3,412 cases, representing 11.7% of the 29,251 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this age group, total of 18 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 18 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 30 new cases overnight, total of 16,146 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 2 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 245 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 9 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 15 new cases overnight, total of 6,115 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 29,251 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today, a total of 234 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 23 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 12 new cases overnight, total of 3,567, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 29,251 total cases.  The County reported 9 new hospitalizations (!) among persons in this age group today, a total of 370 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 108 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 77% of Solano’s 140 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 1 new case overnight, total of 829 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 7 new cases overnight, total of 1,711 cases.
• Fairfield added 18 new cases overnight, total of 7,967 cases.
• Rio Vista added 5 new cases overnight, total of 299 cases.
• Suisun City remained steady today, total of 1,982 cases.
• Vacaville added 22 new cases overnight, total of 7,737 cases.
• Vallejo added 26 new cases overnight, total of 8,640 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 86 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 21% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations, and 13% of deaths.
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 31% of hospitalizations and 34% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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