All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent
Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Four new COVID-19 deaths in Solano County, shrinking availability of ICU beds

By Roger Straw, January 25, 2021
[From Solano County Public Health and others, see sources below.  For a running archive of daily County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE. 

I have NO IDEA why we should not continue to STAY AT HOME…

Monday, January 25: 547 new Solano cases over the weekend, 4 new deaths.  Since Feb: 27,041 cases, over 800 hospitalized, 115 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Jan. 22:Summary

    • Solano County reported 547 new cases over the weekend.  Total of 27,041 cases since the outbreak started.
    • Deaths – 4 new deaths reported today, one young person aged 18-49 and 3 persons over 65 years of age, a total of 115 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
    • Active cases – Solano reported 453 fewer active cases today, a total of 1,717 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658 – and TODAY we are at 1,717.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Or do we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
    • Hospitalizations – (See expanding ICU capacity below.)  Today, Solano reported 8 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 152, and no change in hospitalizations among the age groups.  We will have to wait for the County’s “occasional” large group of updated numbers on hospitalizations among the age groups.  Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note…
      >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
    • ICU Beds – Solano County Public Health reports that Solano hospitals recently expanded their ICU capacity [see Benicia Independent, “Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?“]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County reported a sharp drop in ICU beds available today, down from 26% Friday, to 15% today, continuing in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  >> COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had ONLY 2 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, January 24.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 20% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at an alarming rate of 20%, down a bit from Friday’s 20.7%, but still 2 ½ times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down significantly from Friday’s 8.9% to 8.0% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – The surge continues…
  • Youth 17 and under – 72 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,144 cases, representing 11.6% of the 27,041 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 275 new cases over the weekend, total of 14,934 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 241 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded 1 new death in this young group today, total of 8 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 122 new cases over the weekend, total of 5,648 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 27,041  total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 217 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 78 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,304, representing a high of 12.2% of Solano’s 27,041 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 328 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  3 new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 89 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 77% of Solano’s 115 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 17 new cases over the weekend, total of 759 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 26 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,615 cases.
  • Fairfield added 125 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,499 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 12 new cases over the weekend, total of 259 cases.
  • Suisun City added 39 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,849 cases.
  • Vacaville added 188 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,117 cases.
  • Vallejo added 140 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,860 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 83 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 12% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations, and 15% of deaths.
  • Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.
More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source
Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today).  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.
California, Coronavirus, Covid 19, COVID-19 Purple Tier, Solano County CA

So we’re back in the COVID Purple Tier – what’s that mean exactly?

By Roger Straw, January 25, 2021

The COVID-19 Purple Tier Mandate – Details

IN A NUTSHELL…

REGIONAL STAY-AT-HOME ORDER LIFTED, SOLANO COUNTY RETURNS TO PURPLE TIER

Some significant changes resulting from Solano County’s return to the purple tier include:

      • Restaurants may offer outdoor dining
      • Hair salons, barbershops, and personal services may reopen
      • Outdoor social gatherings involving 25 or fewer people, from three or fewer different households, are now permitted

Remember: PLEASE CONTINUE to physical distance and wear face covering outside of the home.

MORE DETAIL:

Find the status for specific activities in your county: COVID19.CA.GOV

BELOW is a convenient SUMMARY CHART from California Department of Public Health (click on each image for larger, easily readable version).  For details on the “modifications” mentioned in the chart, you will need to go to the California Department of Public Health’s Blueprint for a Safer Economy framework.

California, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Intensive Care Units (ICUs), Solano County CA

Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?

By Roger Straw, January 25, 2021

The surge hasn’t slowed in Solano and some other California locations, but more ICU beds don’t get us out of the “purple tier”

B.C. clears more acute hospital beds as COVID-19 case growth slows – Surrey Now-Leader

Something changed dramatically and suddenly in Solano County on Thursday, January 14, and the State seems to have followed suit lately.

Solano County reported the following percentage of ICU beds available during January.  Note the remarkable jump on January 14:

Date Total Confirmed Cases Daily or Weekend Δ ICU Beds Available
Monday, January 4, 2021 20,953 90 17.0%
Tuesday, January 5, 2021 21,223 270 20.0%
Wednesday, January 6, 2021 21,520 297 15.0%
Thursday, January 7, 2021 21,855 335 12.0%
Friday, January 8, 2021 22,232 377 4.0%
Monday, January 11, 2021 23,314 1,082 20.0%
Tuesday, January 12, 2021 23,554 240 5.0%
Wednesday, January 13, 2021 23,889 335 1.0%
Thursday, January 14, 2021 24,291 402 23.0%
Friday, January 15, 2021 24,654 363 23.0%
Tuesday, January 19, 2021 25,806 1,152 24.0%
Wednesday, January 20, 2021 25,983 177 28.0%
Thursday, January 21, 2021 26,191 208 20.0%
Friday, January 22, 2021 26,494 303 26.0%

According to the Fairfield Daily Republic on 1/14/21, Solano County Public Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas said in a phone interview, “‘NorthBay has opened up additional ICU space and Kaiser and Sutter plan to.’”

My worst fear is that the COVID surge will rage on here in Solano County, and with more ICU beds now available, we will only fill them with those who become seriously ill with the virus.  It seems the State of California could do the same.  We may be lifting the strict stay-at-home order, but the purple tier restrictions are incredibly important.  We don’t want to fill those additional ICU beds!

California, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Intensive Care Units (ICUs), Vaccine

What Is Happening With the Virus in California? For Now, Many Mixed Signals

Monday: Hospital capacity is increasing in some areas. The vaccine rollout is still chaotic.

People waiting in line at a super vaccination station set up in an empty department store in Chula Vista.
People waiting in line at a super vaccination station set up in an empty department store in Chula Vista. Mike Blake/Mike Blake

New York Times, By Jill Cowan, 1/25/21, 9:07 a.m. ET  (This article is part of the California Today newsletter. Sign up to get it delivered to your inbox.)

Good morning.

If you’re confused about the state of the virus in California, you’re not alone.

While California’s overall case numbers have been on the decline, hospitals in Southern California are still overwhelmed and experts worry that new variants of the virus — including one that researchers recently found in more than half of samples collected in Los Angeles — could threaten progress curbing Covid-19’s rampant spread.

[Compare coronavirus case numbers, hospitalizations and deaths across California with this map.]

In the Bay Area, intensive care unit capacity has risen to 23.4 percent, according to the state as of Sunday — well above the 15 percent threshold that triggered the stay-at-home order for the region. Yet the Sacramento area has just 11.9 percent intensive care unit capacity, and was allowed to exit the strict order more than a week ago.

Although The San Francisco Chronicle reported on Saturday that officials in the region were feeling hopeful that the order would be lifted soon, the state’s department of public health reported on Sunday that the Bay Area wasn’t eligible to have restrictions loosened based on its projections.

[See how full hospital intensive care units are near you.]

Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to make an announcement about lifting some restrictions in the state on Monday.

The Associated Press reported that Mr. Newsom’s administration has refused to disclose key data that would help explain the difference in approaches between the Bay Area and Sacramento.

In any case, the state hinted in a news release on Sunday that Sacramento may be required to re-enter the stay-at-home order, which would force many businesses to shut back down. (We can expect to get an update from state officials in coming days.)

And even after President Biden unveiled what experts have long said is a desperately needed national strategy for finally controlling the pandemic, there are still major hurdles in the vaccine rollout, which in California has contributed to continuing chaos, in which vaccine eligibility rules have been implemented differently county by county.

As CalMatters reported, the state quietly rolled out a promised clearinghouse website to help people find vaccination appointments. But it’s still a work in progress.

[Track the vaccine rollout in California and other states.]

Read more:

  • One of the biggest contributors to Los Angeles County’s surge is its overcrowded housing. [The New York Times]

  • Mandatory masking for interstate travel. Ramped up manufacturing. Here’s more of what’s in President Biden’s pandemic executive orders. [The New York Times]

  • Experts believe as many as thousands of coronavirus deaths have not been counted in San Bernardino County, giving a false sense of the disease’s deadliness. [The Riverside Press-Enterprise]

  • Fear over testing positive for Covid-19 and not being able to return to work, as well as worries over the vaccines, are hurting the eastern Coachella Valley. [The Desert Sun]

  • A coalition of more than 50 Bay Area restaurants and wineries sued Governor Newsom over the state’s outdoor dining ban. [The San Francisco Chronicle]

  • Getting millions of people vaccinated will help reduce infections. But vaccines alone won’t end the pandemic. [The New York Times]

  • The governor’s $2 billion school reopening fund could actually cost districts money. [CalMatters]