All posts by Roger Straw

Editor, owner, publisher of The Benicia Independent

Solano County COVID-19 positive test rate higher today than State of California


[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Wednesday, August 5: 78 new cases in 1 day, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 3,884 cases, 38 deaths.

Compare previous report, Tuesday August 4:Summary

  • Solano County reported 78 new cases overnight, total of 3,884 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 902 new cases, an average of 64 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 38 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 5 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 171.  Note that only 42 of these 171 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations1 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 42.  No more in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, 164.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the hospitalization numbers in the Age Group chart.)  Again this week, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing only 164 residents were tested  today, total of 53,815.  We still have a long way to go: only 12% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s
7-day percent positive test rate is up from 5.3% on Monday to 6.2% today.
  (The chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% 2 weeks ago on July 22.  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate has been falling, and is reported at 5.5% today, lower than Solano County’s 6.2% Increasingly, health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  This information is immediately important, as test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  Positive test rates in California and other southwestern states have been on the rise.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases today, total of 385 cases. No new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak beganI continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  It is clear that youth can catch the disease, and it seems too many youth are ignoring social distancing orders!  Cases among Solano youth have increased to 10% of the 3,884 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 49 new cases today, total of 2,383 cases.  This age group is 41% of the County population, but represents over 61% of the 3,884 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  Good news is that the County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 45 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young to middle age group is no doubt active, many are providing essential services out among us, and potentially spreading the virus!
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 17 new cases today, total of 736 cases.  This age group represents just under 19% of the 3,884 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 51 hospitalized since the outbreak began, no new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 5 new cases today, total of 379 cases.  This age group represents nearly 10% of the 3,884 total cases. No new hospitalizatons today, total of 66 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No deaths in this age group today, total of 31.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 31 of the 38 deaths, or 82%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 3 new cases today, total of 90 cases.
  • Dixon added 6 new cases today, total of 205 cases.
  • Fairfield added 27 new cases today, total of 1,266.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 28 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 297 cases.
  • Vacaville added 16 new cases today, total of 661 cases.
  • Vallejo added 20 new cases today, total of 1,325 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 12 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 26% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 22% of hospitalizations, and 29% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 28% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 12% of hospitalizations, but 15% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Bay Area Counties recommend 10 to 20 day isolation for COVID-19 patients

Here’s how long most Bay Area counties are recommending COVID-19 patients isolate before returning to work

Those who were hospitalized, or those with underlying conditions, should isolate for 20 days.
ABC7 News, by J.R. Stone, August 4, 2020

SOLANO COUNTY, Calif. (KGO) — Most Bay Area counties are now recommending a 10-day isolation for COVID-19 patients instead of a 14-day quarantine before they come back to work.

The CDC is recommending this and it is also being backed by doctors from UCSF and Stanford.

“For the healthy individual, 10 days will be plenty and we just haven’t seen the evidence for spread after that period of time,” says Dr. Yvonne Maldonado with Stanford Health Care.

New CDC guidelines say those with coronavirus who have mild to moderate symptoms should isolate for 10 days from the start of symptoms or a positive test.

Those who were hospitalized, or those with underlying conditions, should isolate for 20 days.

“But it’s not everyone and there are still other pieces that have to be met, but the 10-day rule is still going to work a lot better for some of our workers,” says Dr. Ralph Gonzales of UCSF.

ABC7 News talked with a business owner in Benicia, who said, “10, 14, or 20 days. It’s hard to make sense of anything right now.”

“I had nothing given to me as a business owner, I don’t know, we’re doing the best we can and the rules change week by week,” says Dennis Cullen who owns Cullen’s Tannery Pub.

In fact, multiple counties are recommending people don’t get a second test before going back to work because dead COVID-19 virus cells can sometimes linger two to three months in patients, even if they’ve recovered.

“Some people do shed virus in our study up to two months, but whether or not that is infectious virus or not, that is unclear,” according to Dr. Maldonado.

Doctors tell us the number of people who are still contagious after that ten or 20-day period is so small, they don’t find it to be a major threat going forward.

Solano County: 85 new COVID infections in one day, 1 more death


[Note that Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is often corrected upward on a later date. For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Tuesday, August 4: 85 new cases in 1 day,
1 new death. 
Since the outbreak started: 3,721 cases, 38 deaths.

Compare previous report, Monday, August 3:Summary

  • Solano County reported 85 new cases overnight, total of 3,806 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 949 new cases, an average of 67 per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death today, a person 65 years or older, total of 38 deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 17 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 166.  On July 16, Solano hit a record high of 440 active cases.  Note that only 43 of these 166 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations1 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 43.  No more in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, 164.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the hospitalization numbers in the Age Group chart.)  Again this week, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing only 167 residents were tested  today, total of 53,651.  We still have a long way to go: only 12% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s
7-day percent positive test rate is up from 5.3% on Monday to 5.9% today.
  (The chart may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a high of 9.3% on July 22.  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate is reported to have dropped to 6.0%.  Increasingly, health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  This information is immediately important, as test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  Positive test rates in California and other southwestern states have been on the rise.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 8 new cases today, total of 378 cases. No new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  2 weeks ago, there were 282 cases among this age group – we’ve seen nearly 100 new cases in just 14 days.  I continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased to 10% of the 3,806 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 45 new cases today, total of 2,334 cases.  This age group is 41% of the County population, but represents over 61% of the 3,806 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  Good news is that the County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 45 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.  This young age group is no doubt active, out among us, and spreading the virus!
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 19 new cases today, total of 719 cases.  This age group represents just under 19% of the 3,806 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 51 hospitalized since the outbreak began, no new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 13 new cases today, total of 374 cases.  This age group represents nearly 10% of the 3,806 total cases. No new hospitalizatons today, total of 66 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  We lost 1 of our elders in this age group today, total of 31.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 31 of the 38 deaths, or 82%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 4 new cases today, total of 87 cases.
  • Dixon added 2 new cases today, total of 199 cases.
  • Fairfield added 14 new cases today, total of 1,239.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 28 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 291 cases.
  • Vacaville added 13 new cases today, total of 645 cases.
  • Vallejo added 44 new cases today, total of 1,305 cases.  Vallejo has added 163 cases in the last 7 days – a major outbreak?  Vallejo replaced Fairfield last week with more positive cases than anywhere in Solano County.  Vallejo added 199 new cases in June, 686 new cases in July.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 12 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 26% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 22% of hospitalizations, and 29% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 29% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 12% of hospitalizations, but 15% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Closing of California’s 4th largest oil refinery will cost thousands of jobs

Shutdown of Marathon’s Martinez Refinery Prompts Calls for ‘Just Transition’ for Oil Workers

KQED News, by Ted Goldberg, Aug 3, 2020
A view of the Marathon Petroleum Corp. refinery in Martinez. (Tesoro)

Elected officials, union leaders, industry representatives and environmentalists are expressing concern about the hundreds of workers set to lose their jobs at California’s fourth-largest refinery in the coming months.

That’s after Marathon Petroleum announced over the weekend that it plans a permanent halt to processing crude oil at its Martinez plant.

“The decommissioning of the Marathon refinery means the loss of thousands of good paying, California blue collar jobs at a time of great economic uncertainty,” said Robbie Hunter, president of the State Building and Construction Trades Council of California, which represents thousands of people who work at the plant in the course of a year.

Marathon executives told employees at its Contra Costa County and Gallup, New Mexico, refineries on Friday that it plans to cut workers.

“We will indefinitely idle these facilities with no plans to restart normal operations,” the company said on its website.

The company had idled both refineries in April after shelter-at-home orders drastically cut demand for gasoline and jet fuel. That meant processing units at the plants stopped making transportation fuels and other refined products. For months the refineries have been maintained in “standby” mode.

The Friday announcement means “most jobs at these refineries will no longer be necessary, and we expect to begin a phased reduction of staffing levels in October” the company said on its website.

Marathon employs 740 staff workers at its Martinez refinery, which has gone through several owners and name changes. It was formerly known as the Tesoro, Golden Eagle, Tosco Avon and Phillips Avon refinery. Marathon bought the facility in 2018.

In addition to the full-time employees, the refinery relies on between 250 and 2,500 contract workers depending on operational needs, according to Marathon representative Patricia Deutsche.

“There is also the ‘multiplier’ effect. They say for every one refinery job there are eight in the community that support that,” Deutsche said.

“This move is a big loss for our workforce and potentially the economy,” said Rep. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, who represents Martinez and has been a longtime advocate for refinery safety.

DeSaulnier said that before the coronavirus pandemic and the oil industry downturn, he began bringing together labor unions, environmental groups and local governments to prepare for a shift to green energy in Contra Costa County.

“The transition needs to be as successful as possible for everyone and we cannot leave workers behind — they need to be guaranteed meaningful and comparable work,” DeSaulnier said in an emailed statement Sunday.

A spokesman for a leading trade group that represents the oil industry in California said he feels for the local economy that relies on the refinery, which can process about 160,000 barrels of crude per day.

“Obviously, this impacts a lot of people, families and the community and we are concerned for them,” said Kevin Slagle, a representative for the Western States Petroleum Association.

The refinery has seen its share of incidents. The worst in the last decade took place in February 2014, when the facility was run by Tesoro. Two workers were burned and 84,000 pounds of sulfuric acid were released. A month later sulfuric acid sprayed and burned two contract workers, leading to an investigation by the U.S Chemical Safety Board that raised concerns about the refinery’s safety culture.

Like the Bay Area’s other four refineries — Valero in Benicia, Chevron in Richmond, PBF Energy in Martinez and Phillips 66 in Rodeo — the facility has had to send gases to its flares scores of times over the years, many times to deal with malfunctions.

Local environmentalists who’ve been critical of the region’s oil industry say it’s time for the refinery, its dangers and pollution to go away, but the change should include a plan for workers.

“This is what an unplanned transition looks like,” said Greg Karras with Community Energy reSource.

It’s “the tip of the iceberg for why we need a planned, just transition to sustainable energy and a livable climate,” Karras said.

Some environmentalists and union advocates have used the term “just transition” to explain a fair way of getting fossil fuel industry workers and their surrounding communities, businesses and local governments to move into a green energy economy.

Hollin Kretzmann, an Oakland attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, said the air quality benefits of a refinery shutting down are welcome but expressed concern about workers.

“Communities near this dangerous refinery can breathe a little easier now that operations have halted, but the state desperately needs a just transition plan that protects workers when oil companies toss their employees to the curb with little warning,” Kretzmann said.

Marathon says its Martinez refinery will be converted to an oil storage facility. The company says it’s considering turning the facility into a renewable diesel facility.

“The Marathon refinery’s (potential) conversion into a renewable diesel facility is a forecast of the future as the demand for fossil fuels declines over time, resulting in healthier air and reduced greenhouse gas emissions,” said Contra Costa County Supervisor John Gioia.

“We will see more future refinery closures as a result of continued decreasing consumption of fossil fuels under California’s policies transitioning our transportation system to zero emission,” said Gioia, who sits on the the Bay Area Air Quality Management District board and the California Air Resources Board.

“We need to immediately start addressing a just transition for these workers as more fossil fuel facilities close,” he said.

Marathon’s decision to end oil processing at its Martinez plant is the latest piece of evidence showing California’s oil industry suffering under a pandemic that’s led to severe drops in fuel demand.

San Ramon-based Chevron, one of the world’s largest oil companies, announced its worst quarter in decades on Friday. The company said it lost more than $8 billion during the three months ending June 30.

“All the oil majors have been clobbered by COVID,” said David Hackett, president of Stillwater Associates, a firm that specializes in analyzing the transportation fuels market.

Earlier this month, the California Resources Corporation, one of the state’s largest oil producers, filed for bankruptcy.

In May, the Newsom administration granted a request by another oil trade group, the California Independent Petroleum Association, to drop a proposal to add dozens of staff members to the agency that oversees oil and gas drilling that would have cost the industry $24 million. State regulators also agreed to postpone a deadline for oil and gas producers to pay fees and submit plans to manage thousands of idle oil wells.

In April, PBF Energy, the New Jersey-based company that bought Shell’s refinery in Martinez, sold two hydrogen plants at the facility for hundreds of millions of dollars — a move aimed at cutting costs and raising revenue to deal with fuel demand drops.

That same month, more than 1,000 contract electricians, pipefitters and other skilled workers were cut from Bay Area refineries.