Coronavirus, Covid 19, Fairfield CA, Senior care, Solano County CA

Fairfield COVID outbreak adds to Solano daily update: 4 hospitalized, 2 new deaths

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Tuesday, September 15: 50 new cases overnight, 2 new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 5,987 cases, 52 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, Sept 14:Summary

  • Solano County reported 50 new cases today, total of 5,987 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last week, Solano reported 225 new cases, an average of 32 per day.
  • Deaths – 2 new deaths today, total of 52 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 4 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 212.  Note that only 32 of these 212 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has no reporting on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons included 1 fewer individuals today, total of 32.  This despite the increase in total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, plus 4 today, total of 298.  Evidently more released than admitted (see age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 50% of ICU beds available, down from 56% available yesterday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 649 more residents were tested since yesterday, new total of 82,008.  Solano has a long way to go: only 18.3% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate: TOPSY TURVY … DOWN AGAIN

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell overnight by 1.8% from 4.9% to 3.1%.  I was skeptical about the remarkably low rate last week: our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has been jumping all over the place lately (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Last week we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, so I decided today that it isn’t worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate fell slightly today from 3.5% to 3.3%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 5 new case today, total of 656 cases, representing 11% of the 5,987 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 5 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 5 youth have been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 27 new cases today, total of 3,596 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the 5,987 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 94 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group today, total of 4 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 12 new cases today, total of 1,146 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 5,987 total cases.
    1 new hospitalization today, total of 80 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death in this age group today, a total of 8 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Yesterday, I reported Solano’s LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASE in this age group since I began keeping records on April 20: 31 new cases, 3 new hospitalizations and 2 deaths.  The outbreak continues: 7 new cases today, 3 new hospitalizations and 1 new death.  Now we can report that this is almost assuredly related to news of an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff have tested positive.  This age group’s 588 cases represent 9.8% of the 5,987 total cases.  Total hospitalizations since the pandemic began number 119 today, and deaths total 40 in this age group.  In this older age group, 20.2% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 40 of the 52 deaths, or 77%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 5 new cases today, total of 153 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 1 new cases today, total of 399 cases.
  • Fairfield added 15 new cases today, total of 1,955.
  • Rio Vista added no new cases today, total of 40 cases.
  • Suisun City added 4 new cases today, total of 433 cases.
  • Vacaville added 4 new cases today, total of 993 cases.
  • Vallejo added 21 new cases today, total of 1,995 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas added no new cases today, total of 19 cases.

Cases, Hospitalizations & Deaths by Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 33% of hospitalizations, and 27% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 20% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations and 21% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.