County averaging 35 new cases per day over last two weeks

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Friday, October 16: 58 new cases overnight, no new deaths, 2 new hospitalizations.  Since the outbreak began: 7,009 cases, 405 hospitalized, 74 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Oct. 15:Summary

• Solano County reported 58 new cases today, total of 7,009 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 489 new cases, average of 35 per day (significantly higher than the previous weeks’ daily averages).
• Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 74 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  19 deaths reported in 24 days, Sept 22 – Oct 15:
  – 1 very young person 18-49 years;
  – 4 middle agers 50-64 years;
  – 14 of our elders aged 65+;
• Active cases – Solano reported 3 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 301.  This week, Solano reported over 300 active cases for the first time since September 4.  Solano averaged 238 active cases in daily reports Sept 4 – Oct 14, so this shows a significant recent rise.
  Note that only 21 of these 301 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
• Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 1 today, total of 21.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 2 today, total of 405.  (See age group hospitalization stats below).
• ICU Beds – the County reported an increase in ICU beds available, up from 45% to 46%.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
• Testing – The County reports today that 235 more residents were tested, new total of 96,231.  (Solano has AVERAGED over 450 tested per day during the last 3 weeks.)  Solano has a long way to go; only 21.5% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate jumped today from 5.4% to 6.1%, exceeding 6% for the first time since September 3.  Solano’s test rate crested the week of July 15-22, when it peaked at 9.3%.  The County has hit 7% (or more) three times since: on August 21, September 1 and September 2.  In the 6 weeks since September 2, our test rate was reported as high as 6.5% and as low as 2.7% (on Sept 11), averaging 4.5%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate remained steady today, at 2.6%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 788 cases, representing 11.2% of the 7,009 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 29 new cases today, total of 4,185 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 131 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 15 new cases today, total of 1,337 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 7,009 total cases. No new hospitalizations today, total of 109 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 4 new cases, total of 697.  No new hospitalizations, total of 157.  No new deaths, total of 54 of our elders who died of COVID.  This age group’s 697 cases represent 10% of the 7,009 total cases.  In this older age group, 22.5% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 54 of the 74 deaths, or 73%.

City Data

• Benicia remained steady today, total of 182 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 450 cases.
• Fairfield added 23 new cases today, total of 2,271 cases.
• Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 54 cases.
• Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 509 cases.
• Vacaville added 14 new cases today, total of 1,213cases.
• Vallejo added 11 new cases today, total of 2,307 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 23 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 22% of cases, 27% of hospitalizations and 30% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.