By Roger Straw, Thursday, March 4, 2021
[Editor: for a more complete look at Solano’s likely move to the Red Tier, see Answers – and Questions – about California’s easing of COVID restrictions.  – R.S.]

COVID still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – get vaccinated, stay safe! (See Free Vaccine this weekend at Solano Fairgrounds)

Thursday, March 4: 46 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since February 2020: 30,262 cases, over 930 hospitalized, 165 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, March 3:Summary

• • CASES – Solano County reported 46 new cases overnight, a total of 30,262 cases since the outbreak started.
  • DEATHS – the County reported no new deaths today.  A total of 165 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began.  In January-February, Solano recorded 66 coronavirus deaths, fully 40% of Solano’s COVID deaths to date!  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday and Super Bowl surge.
  • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 23 more active cases today, a total of 280 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185, then in February down to 481 and TODAY we are at 280.  Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, hopefully quarantined and hopefully staying away from grandma and grandpa!
  • HOSPITALIZATIONS – Today, Solano reported 9 fewer  currently hospitalized cases, total of 28.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among the age groups, a total of 930 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.
  • ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has fallen in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  Back in the green zone today, the County reported 38% available today up from 30% yesterday. California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had 17 available ICU beds yesterday, March 3.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 65% of ventilators available, down from 69% yesterday, and still substantially lower than last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate and our Purple Tier rating

Solano County is reporting that our positive test rate today is 6.1%, up slightly from yesterday’s 6.0%.  Solano has come in under the State’s purple/red tier threshold of 8% lately.  Even so, DON’T EXPECT A QUICK MOVE DOWN TO THE RED TIER.  Before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to  maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% AND a case rate at or below 31 new cases per day for two consecutive weeks.  Solano’s positive rate meets that standard, at 7.2% as of today, but our new case rate, by my calculation, was at 40.9 per day over the last two weeks.  (Caution: I’ve learned that the County often uses different methods of calculating, so my numbers may not match Dr. Matyas’ numbers.  But these numbers do reflect the County’s daily COVID Dashboard updates.)  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was at 2.1% today, down from 2.2% yesterday.

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases overnight, total of 3,531 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,262 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this very young age group, total of 19 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 19 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 28 new cases overnight, total of 16,707 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 258 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 8 new cases overnight, total of 6,321 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 30,262 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 249 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths reported in this age group today, a total of 27 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 3 new cases overnight, total of 3,692, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,262 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 404 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 128 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 165 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 856 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 4 new cases overnight, total of 1,768 cases.
• Fairfield added 11 new cases overnight, total of 8,229 cases.
• Rio Vista added 1 new case overnight, total of 332 cases.
• Suisun City added 6 new cases overnight, total of 2,053 cases.
• Vacaville added 11 new cases overnight, total of 7,945 cases.
• Vallejo added 12 new cases overnight, total of 8,988 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 91 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note a MAJOR CHANGE in the County’s reporting on race / ethnicity this week.  Prior this week, we were sure that the County data undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a much larger group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.  Monday’s Latinx numbers were virtually reversed with those of Multirace / Other, and the re-sorting by race and ethnicity continued until today.  (The new data is not likely an error.  It is most likely a revision based on a new reading of the old data.)  Note that the remaining members of the Multirace/Other group are still undoubtedly primarily Latinx.  This week’s jump in Latinx numbers are STILL likely undercounting the harsh effects of COVID among our Latinx community.  Worst case, if you were to assume ALL of the Multirace/Others are Latinx and add the stats for the two groups, you would see that this combined 33% of Solano’s population accounts for 45% of cases, 38% of hospitalizations but only 25% of deaths.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 14% of cases (unchanged), 15% of hospitalizations (unchanged), and 19% of deaths (unchanged).
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases (unchanged), but 17% of hospitalizations (unchanged), and 20% of deaths (unchanged).
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 32% of cases (unchanged), 30% of hospitalizations (unchanged), and 18% of deaths (unchanged).
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases(unchanged), 8% of hospitalizations (unchanged), and 7% of deaths (unchanged).
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases (unchanged), 30% of hospitalizations (unchanged), and 36% of deaths (unchanged).

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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