By Roger Straw, December 30, 2020  [Sources: see below.]

Wednesday, December 30: 282 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since Feb: 19,008 cases, more than 745 hospitalized, 98 deaths.Compare previous report, Tuesday, Dec. 29:Summary

• • Solano County reported 282 new cases overnight.  In just the last 14 days, Solano has seen an increase of 4,616 new cases.  We’re averaging 330 (!) new cases every day! (source: covid19.ca.gov)  Total of 19,008 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, a total of 98 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 130 more active cases today for a total of 2,138 active cases.  Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 2,130!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – CAUTION ON SOLANO HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County “occasionally” updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  Today, Solano reported 5 more CURRENTLY hospitalized persons, total of 134.  Among the age groups, the County reported only 3 new hospitalizations, for a total of 747 persons hospitalized since the outbreak began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County reported fewer ICU beds available today, back down to only 11% available, in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano hospitals had 13 available ICU beds as of yesterday, December 29.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • Testing – The County upgraded its report on testing today.  Previously reporting only the Total Number of Unduplicated Residents Tested, today the County added a new stat, Total Tests Performed.  I am guessing that the first record, “Unduplicated,” was adjusted down some today, as the County reported an increase of only 214, far below the usual daily increase.  Solano reports today that a 166,379 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began, and that a total of 216,435 tests have been performed on Solano residents.  Thus, just over 50,000 tests have been administered on residents who had been previously tested.  37.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – NEARLY 1 IN 5 ARE TESTING POSITIVE – VIRUS SPREADING LIKE WILDFIRE, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test rate today at 19.0%, up from yesterday’s 18.2%, and still far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down from yesterday’s 12.0% to 11.8% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – Continuing a holiday surge in all age groups

• Youth 17 and under – 25 new cases today, total of 2,116 cases, representing 11.2% of the 19,008 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 142 new cases today, total of 10,804 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 56.9% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 237 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 7 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 71 new cases today, total of 3,936 cases.  This age group represents 20.7% of the 19,008 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 205 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 17 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 44 new cases today, total of 2,143, representing 11.3% of Solano’s 19,008 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 288 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 74 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 98 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 11 new cases today, total of 504 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 9 new cases today, total of 1216 cases.
• Fairfield added 73 new cases today, total of 5,395 cases.
• Rio Vista added 5 new cases today, total of 161 cases.
• Suisun City added 26 new cases today, total of 1,330 cases.
• Vacaville added 71 new cases today, total of 4,768 cases.
• Vallejo added 87 new cases today, total of 5,573 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 61 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 17% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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