And then there’s this…
Please spread this to all true patriots from r/WhitePeopleTwitter
Health experts say it’s too early in the pandemic for a definitive answer because the basic information to make that calculation — how many people contracted COVID-19 and how many died of it — isn’t fully known due to testing limitations.
But on March 3, before the rapid spread of cases prompted lockdowns around the U.S., the World Health Organization’s director- general reported that “globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” and “by comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”
Today, by the WHO’s global case and fatality tally, the world’s COVID-19 death rate is twice what it reported in March — 7%. Other organizations tracking figures, such as Johns Hopkins University, show a similarly high global case fatality rate. Regionally, the figures vary more. WHO and Johns Hopkins figures for the U.S. show a rate around 6%, while the WHO’s figures for Europe indicate a rate of 9%.
“COVID19 is a pretty severe disease,” said Santa Clara Valley Medical Center Dr. Heng Duong, who rattled off similar case fatality rates to the Santa Clara County board of supervisors this week. “It is true most people do OK. But when folks get sick, they get really sick.”
By comparison, SARS — Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome — caused by a cousin of the new coronavirus killed 774 — 10% — of the 8,098 people it infected in a 2003 outbreak, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But that virus proved not nearly as infectious, so it didn’t spread far.
The 1918-19 influenza pandemic, one of the most severe in history, which killed an estimated 50 million globally and 675,000 in the U.S., is generally estimated to have had a case fatality rate of more than 2.5%.
Duong and other experts said the true case fatality rate for COVID-19 may be much lower because there likely are a large number of people who have been infected with mild symptoms and were not confirmed through testing, which has largely been focused on those seeking hospital treatment or in highrisk settings.
But Duong added that “even if the case fatality rate is closer to 1%, that’s actually very high,” noting that seasonal influenza’s fatality rate is about a tenth of that.
In the U.S., 80% of COVID- 19 deaths have been among those age 65 and older, according to the CDC.
What does all this mean for us? Dr. Robert Siegel, a Stanford University professor of microbiology and immunology, said the relative danger of the disease has been part of a tug-ofwar between advocates and critics of public health lockdowns aimed at checking the virus’ spread. But the specific case rate ultimately doesn’t matter much — the public health response will be the same.
“There is a political component in how these things are being estimated,” Siegel said. “The fact is, we know this is a serious disease. We already know this is more serious than the flu. If you get the disease and the case fatality rate is 1% or the case fatality rate is 5%, I think you’d treat those the same. That would be an alarmingly high rate — you wouldn’t play Russian Roulette with those odds. If it’s 1 in a million that’s something else.”
The debate comes amid recent reports acknowledging a wider array of symptoms and complications in many COVID-19 cases — from “COVID-toe” skin lesions and loss of smell to kidney, heart and neurological damage, blood clots and strokes. Duong noted that influenza can cause some of those symptoms in some cases too, though the frequency has been higher with COVID-19. Still, he said about eight in 10 infected with the disease are able to ride it out at home.
Dr. Stephen Luby, an epidemiologist and professor of medicine at Stanford University, believes broader testing will eventually increase the number of people who have been infected and pull down the case fatality rate. “Some people do become very ill from this virus, but I do not see any evidence that this is substantially worse than the cases reported out of China early in the epidemic,” Luby said. “I still expect the infection fatality ratio to remain less than 1%. I expect that it will be worse than a typical influenza year, but not as bad as the influenza pandemic in 1919.”
Solano County reported 9 new positive cases again today, total is now 397. And again, we have 1 new death, total now at 12. Also just like yesterday, another new case was a young person under age 18. And again as yesterday, the death was an elder, age 65 or older. This makes 5 new deaths in just 5 days since Friday May 8.
BY AGE GROUP
HOSPITALIZATIONS: 61 of Solano’s 397 cases resulted in hospitalizations, same as yesterday. Good news – no increase.
ACTIVE CASES: More good news: only 42 of the 397 cases are active, and this is 5 fewer than yesterday. Note that the county does not report WHERE the active cases are. Below you will see that only 15 are currently hospitalized, which leaves 27 of these 42 active cases out in our communities somewhere, and hopefully quarantined.
The County’s “Hospital Impact” graph shows 15 of the 61 hospitalized cases are CURRENTLY hospitalized, 2 more than yesterday. (Don’t ask me how TOTAL hospitalizations can remain at 61 while CURRENTLY hospitalized increases by 2. There must be an error or a correction of a previous error….) The County’s count of ICU beds available and ventilator supply remains at “GOOD” at 31-100%. (No information is given on our supply of test kits, PPE and staff.)
CITY DATA
This report mirrors exactly yesterday’s report:
TESTING
The County reports that 5,934 residents have been tested as of today. This is an increase of 265 residents tested since yesterday’s total of 5,669. This comes a week after the County announced the opening of new State run testing sites in Vacaville and Vallejo, open to anyone. Are we beginning to see our testing numbers surge?
· See Solano testing – by the numbers April 13 – present.
· See also Solano County announces testing available to all.
We have a long way to go: only 1.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.
This chart shows the infection’s steady upward trajectory in Solano County. Our “curve” continues to creep up. Our nursing homes, long-term care facilities and jails bear watching!
WASHINGTON – Congressman Mike Thompson (CA-05) has released the results of a coronavirus relief survey that polled constituents about their experience during the coronavirus pandemic.
The survey was conducted from May 1 through May 8 and results include answers from 4,605 respondents. The survey was emailed out to constituents via Thompson’s mail records list as well as circulated via press reports and Thompson’s social media accounts. Respondents were chosen by self-selection.
Among other things, results suggest a majority of Thompson’s constituency is in support of “cautiously” reopening the economy to prioritize public health, while a significant minority is in support of opening up more quickly to benefit businesses.
“Despite social distancing guidelines that keep us apart, I want to ensure I am doing everything I can to connect with people in our community and ensure their needs are met during this crisis,” said Thompson in a statement. “That’s why I launched my Coronavirus Relief Survey and why I am glad to have input from more than 4,000 people in our district. The results are clear—people want more support from the Federal government. Nearly everyone polled supports expanding the programs started in the CARES Act, such as the Paycheck Protection Program and the expanded unemployment insurance program. The vast majority also favor a cautious approach to opening up our community to ensure the health and safety of our neighbors and friends. Know that these results will inform my continued work to bring Federal relief back to our district.”
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