[BenIndy editor: This report does not mention Solano County, but it does provide a link to a fascinating, extensive and detailed spreadsheet: “updated data from the California Department of Public Health”. Clearly the State did NOT advance Solano out of the RED tier today. – R.S.]
Amador County moves to yellow tier; Yolo County advances closer to least restrictive tier
This week Amador, Orange, Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties moved to the yellow tier.
With the most recent data update, five counties saw case rates and positivity rates that put them in a position to move next week if their numbers remain low:
Placer County could move to the orange tier.
Yolo County to move to the yellow tier.
Plumas County to move to the yellow tier.
Inyo County to move to the yellow tier.
Merced County could move to the orange tier.
Yuba and Tuolumne county were in a position to move to a less restrictive tier last week, but their case rates rose to a point where they were ineligible to move this week.
Counties need to meet the next tiers metrics requirements for two consecutive weeks before moving tiers. There are only three more weeks of tier changes until June 15, when the state plans to retire the tier system. So, there still is enough time for more counties down one more tier before there are no more tiers.
Solano County case rates and vaccination rates lagging behind other Bay Area counties
Solano County is the only Bay Area county still left in the red tier, while the rest of the Bay Area is in the less restrictive orange and yellow tiers. California Department of Public HealthSan Francisco Chronicle, May 6, 2021, by Kellie Hwang
In recent months, coronavirus case rates have plummeted in much of the Bay Area. Most of the region’s counties are now in California’s “moderate” orange reopening tier, which allows for loosened restrictions, and San Francisco moved to the least restrictive yellow tier on Tuesday.
But Solano County, which has continued to struggle with higher case rates than the rest of the Bay Area, is still stuck in the red tier — the second-most-restrictive in the four-tier system.
According to the latest data from the state for the week ending April 24, Solano reported 8.8 new daily coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, and an adjusted case rate of 8.3, which takes into account a county’s testing efforts.
The metrics that the state considers for tier assignment, though, are fairly low, with a positive test rate of 2.7% and a health equity positive test rate of 2.1%. From April 28 to May 4, the average daily case rate for the county was 10 per 100,000, while the Bay Area’s overall average daily case rate was 5.
Dr. Bela Matyas, health officer for the county, said officials know the main reason for the persistently higher case rates.
“People who are not vaccinated are getting together with friends and family and not social distancing,” he said. “It’s been a problem since the very beginning.”
He said the stubborn case rates over the past couple of months can be attributed to younger individuals. The county’s COVID-19 dashboard shows 55% of cases in the 18 to 49 age group, 21% in residents 50 to 64, and 12% in individuals 65 and older. The 18 to 49 age group also has a lower vaccination rate, with 46% having received at least one dose compared to 68% in people 50 to 64 and 79% in residents 65 to 74.
“They are engaging in activities on the presumption that the pandemic is under control or behind us,” Matyas said.
Part of it could be frustration with the pandemic, and part of it could be the “sense they will not have a bad outcome” if they become infected, he said.
Matyas added that it’s hard to compare Solano County to much of the Bay Area when it comes to the pandemic. He called it a “bridge community between the two different cultures” of the Bay Area and the Central Valley.
Vaccination rates are lower than most other Bay Area counties, and vaccine hesitancy is also an issue.
“Very liberal counties have very high rates of vaccination, and traditionally conservative counties have low rates of vaccination,” he said. “We’re in the middle, a blend of the two.”
Matyas said vaccination rates tend to be higher in the southern part of the county that includes Vallejo (61.5% with at least one dose) and Benicia (72.3%), and becomes more moderate and conservative moving north to Fairfield (57.5%) and Vacaville (53.1%).
According to Solano County’s vaccine dashboard, 58% of residents 16 and older have received at least one vaccine dose, while 39% are fully vaccinated. Compare that to neighboring Napa County, where 66% of residents have received at least one vaccine dose, and 47% are fully vaccinated, or Marin County, which has the Bay Area’s highest vaccination rates with 83% having received at least one dose, and 64% fully vaccinated.
“Attendance at clinics is way down” in Solano, Matyas said. “To be honest, there are people in Solano County who don’t want it, who are choosing not to be vaccinated with full knowledge of their decision.”
So will Solano be able to make it to the orange tier? Matyas said the county has been trying, and has consistently provided outreach and education.
“We’ve never been in orange, and have been in the red and purple tiers the whole time,” Matyas said. “I would love to get to the orange because businesses, services and activities are clearly being limited in the red.”
Matyas said officials have achieved the goal of providing the vaccine to those who want it, and have mostly minimized the highest risk in the community, vaccinating nearly 80% of residents 65 and older so far.
At this point, Matyas said the primary goals for the county have shifted to ensuring access to vaccines for anyone who has had trouble receiving them, and helping those who are hesitant get past their hesitancy.
It’s said that “close” is good in horseshoes and hand grenades. Not so good if a county is stuck in a restrictive COVID-19 tier.
Enter Solano County, seemingly cemented to the “red tier” while every other county in the Bay Area is either orange or, in the case of San Francisco, the much less-restrictive yellow tier.
Solano County is inching ever so close, but again, it matters not unless the mandatory limit of positive COVID-19 cases is achieved.
Daily case counts have been averaging about 35 to 45 for several weeks, and they need to get below 27, according to Dr. Bela Matyas, Health Officer for Solano County Public Health.
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“Our daily case numbers remain too high on average for us to be able to move to the orange tier. Given that we are in the red tier this week, it would be at least two weeks before we could move down,” Matyas added.
Seven of the state’s 58 counties — including Los Angeles County, the one-time epicenter of rampant COVID-19 cases — are now in the so-called yellow tier, which is the final stage of a phased reopening plan. The five other counties are all remote areas of Northern California.
“The assignment to a tier is based not on total numbers but on the rate of numbers, which takes into account the large differences in county sizes,” Matyas continued. “That said, L.A. County is seeing less transmission of disease on a per-person basis than we are. I think it has to do largely with different behaviors being practiced in the two counties — more instances of family/social gatherings without social distancing here in Solano than in L.A.”
A longtime proponent of masking up and social distancing pre-COVID to prevent the seasonal flu and common cold, Matyas believes “the best path is to increase community vaccination levels, which will both protect the vaccinated individuals themselves and reduce the ability of the virus to circulate in the community. Obviously, adhering to social distancing recommendations is essential as well.”
The tier system governs crowd sizes — with and without proof of vaccination — allowed at both indoor and outdoor venue events, such as sporting events and live performances.
Whatever tier Solano County reaches is presumably moot in four weeks, as the governor declared that California re-open June 15.
“It doesn’t matter what tier we are in on that date. Solano County will re-open with the rest of the state,” Matyas said.
Though the economy would essentially fully re-open, mask mandates would remain in place.
Close to 13 million Californians are now fully vaccinated with either one shot of the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine or two shots of either Pfizer or Moderna. More than 6.1 million others are partially vaccinated with a first dose of Pfizer or Moderna, according to the California Department of Public Health.
The reduced demand eliminates the need for the huge sites like the Solano County Fairgrounds, notes Benjamin Gammon, Emergency Medical Services Coordinator for Solano County.
Gammon said by phone Thursday that “the clinics are not filling up” and he doesn’t see a return to the fairgrounds “unless Pfizer goes 12 (years old) and up.”
Gammon said that 2,500 doses were available at a recent clinic at Vacaville High School and 1,300 doses were administered.
Again, he said, “we’re just not seeing the push anymore.”
The next scheduled Vallejo mass vaccination availability is next Thursday, 2 to 7 p.m., at the Filipino Community Center, 611 Amador St. Ages 18 and older are eligible. Vaccinations are no-cost and available regardless of health insurance or immigration status. Either the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine or the first of the two-dose Moderna vaccine (with a June 6 return for a second dose) are available.
Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties come close to advancing, but miss the cut
Vallejo Times-Herald, By Nico Savidge & Matt O’Donnell, April 20, 2021
Jack Barenchi smiles as he gets a shot of the Moderna vaccine from Registered Nurse Richard Miralles with Kaiser Permanente during the Solano County Public Health COVID-19 vaccinations at the Solano County Fairgrounds. (Chris Riley—Times-Herald)
Several Bay Area counties learned Tuesday that they will stay put in the orange tier of California’s system of pandemic restrictions for at least the next two weeks, as the least-restrictive reopening level remains elusive.
Marin County was eligible to advance this week to the yellow tier, which indicates “minimal” coronavirus spread, and would have been the first in the Bay Area to do so this year. But a slight uptick in new cases dashed those hopes.
Data collected by the state that is used to determine tier assignments showed none of the Bay Area’s nine counties — where all are in the orange tier except for Solano County, which is in red — met the criteria to advance Tuesday.
“Solano County will remain in red tier status and we expect to stay in this tier for the near future,” said Jayleen Richards, the public health administrator for Solano County Health & Social Services. “Solano Public Health would like to move to a less restrictive tier, but data is not indicating that we will move to a less restrictive tier soon.”
For the state of California, that doesn’t mean coronavirus is surging again; no county is on pace to move backward into a more-restrictive tier. Instead, the dramatic decline in cases that has unfolded since the state’s devastating winter surge has more or less plateaued for the past month.
The yellow stage allows bars that don’t offer food service to start seating customers indoors at up to 25% capacity, and would bump up capacity limits at other businesses such as bowling alleys, wineries and museums. Outdoor gatherings of up to 100 people are permitted in the tier.
To reach it, counties must have a test positivity rate of less than 2% and report a testing-adjusted rate of less than 2 new cases per 100,000 residents per day.
On Tuesday, state officials reported San Mateo County had a case rate of 2.0, while San Francisco’s stood at 2.2 — the second straight week both counties barely missed out on the yellow tier. Under California’s rules, counties must meet the criteria for a less-restrictive stage for two straight weeks before advancing.
State officials are planning to phase out the four-level reopening plan known as the Blueprint for a Safer Economy in mid-June, when Gov. Gavin Newsom has said he will lift most pandemic restrictions.
Only Lassen, Sierra and Alpine counties, home to less than 35,000 combined residents, have reached the yellow tier.
ABC10 News, by Chelsea Shannon, May 18, 2021
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