Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

3 more COVID deaths in Solano County, 8 reported in last 3 days

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.] [Note today that some of the numbers of new deaths and hospitalizations this week may not actually be new.  The Fairfield Daily Reporter, quoting Dr. Matyas, is reporting that some of the deaths reported yesterday are updating discrepancies in reporting from last summer.  Dr. Matyas confirmed in an email to me earlier today that some of the spike in hospitalizations are also adjustments rather than new hospitalizations.  No information as yet as to how many are new and how many are old.  Regardless, these illnesses and deaths are still serious, sad and disturbing…  – R.S.]

Thursday, September 24: 46 new cases overnight, 3 more deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 6,278 cases, 63 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Sept 23:Summary

  • Solano County reported 46 new cases today, total of 6,278 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 473 new cases, average of 34 per day.
  • Deaths – SPIKE: 3 new deaths reported yesterday, 2 the day before, and another 3 deaths today, total of 63 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 32 additional ACTIVE cases today, total of 276.  Note that only 21 of these 276 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons fell by 2 today, total of 21.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 1 today, total of 383, an increase of 68 in just the last week. (see age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 50% of ICU beds available, down 2% from yesterday and down from 56% a  week ago Monday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 513 residents were tested today, new total of 86,198.  Solano has a long way to go: only 19.3% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate rose from 3.3% yesterday to 3.9% today.  Our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has jumped all over the place recently (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, just two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Week before last we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California’s relatively stable 7-day test rate remained at it’s lowest point, 2.8% for the 4th consecutive day today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 696 cases, representing 11.1% of the 6,278 total cases.  Note that today’s 10 new youth cases are nearly a quarter of today’s overall 46 new cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 25 new cases today, total of 3,763 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 127 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 4 new cases today, total of 1,194 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,278 total cases.
    No new hospitalizations today, total of 104 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  2 new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Last week Monday, I reported Solano’s LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASES in this age group since I began keeping records on April 20: 31 new cases, 3 new hospitalizations and 2 deaths.  Today the County reported 7 new cases, total of 624, 1 new hospitalizations, total of 147, and 1 new death, total of 45 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group may be related to an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 624 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,278 total cases.  In this older age group, 23.6% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 45 of the 63 deaths, or 71%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 165 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 3 new cases today, total of 413 cases.
  • Fairfield added 16 new cases today, total of 2,051 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 48 cases.
  • Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 458 cases.
  • Vacaville added 9 new cases today, total of 1,052 cases.
  • Vallejo added 11 new cases today, total of 2,071 cases.  (Note that the County’s chart formatted 2071 as the date 9/1/1905…)
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 20 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 21% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.