Previous report, Thursday, June 18

Summary

• Solano County reported 49 new positive cases today, total of 860 cases.
• No new deaths today, total of 23, and no new hospitalizations, total of 98.
• Solano reported 29 additional ACTIVE cases today, total 176.
• Testing – Solano county reported 1,112 residents were tested since yesterday.  (Somewhat strange that NO new tests were reported yesterday – I’m guessing that 1,112 is a 2-day count.)
• Youth – 6 new cases today among the 17 and under age group, total 63.  There have been 58 new cases among Solano youth in the last 5 weeks, with only 6 new cases over the 5 weeks prior. (More on Solano youth data below.)

BY AGE GROUP

• 6 new cases today among those 17 and under, total of 63 cases, including one hospitalization. A week ago, there were only 39 cases among this age group – we’ve seen 2 dozen new cases in a week!  Our concern is reaching the alarm stage: there have been 52 new cases among those age 17 and under in the last 5 weeks, with only 6 new cases over the 5 weeks prior!  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to 7.3% of the 860 total confirmed cases.  According to the SF Chronicle, “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the figure of coronavirus-infected kids younger than 18 at around 4% of those with the disease.”  We are nearly double the national rate!
• 32 new cases today among persons 18-49 years of age, total of 452 cases.  The County adjusted its count of hospitalizations among this group, reporting 1 fewer hospitalization today.  No new deaths.  Total of 26 hospitalized at one time and 2 deaths.  This age group now represents 52.6% of the 860 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.   26 of the 452 cases in this age group have been hospitalized at one time, 5.8% of total cases in the age group.
• 8 new cases among persons 50-64 years of age, total of 194 cases.  No new hospitalizations, no new deaths, total of 31 hospitalized at one time and 3 deaths.  This age group represents 22.6% of the 860 total cases.   31 of the 194 cases in this age group have been hospitalized at one time, 16% of total cases in the age group.
• 3 new cases among persons 65 years or older, total 151 cases, including no new hospitalizations and no new deaths, total of 39 hospitalized at one time and 18 deaths.  This age group represents 17.6% of the 860 total cases.  39 of the 151 cases in this age group, 25.8% were hospitalized at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  And… this group counts for 18 of the 23 deaths, or 78%.

CITY DATA

• Vallejo added 17 new cases today, total of 395.
• Fairfield added 18 new cases today, total of 244.
• Vacaville added 9 new cases today, total of 109 cases.
• Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 56 cases.
• Benicia remained at 25 cases.
• Dixon is reported at 1 fewer case today (??), total of 18 cases.
• Rio Vista and “Unincorporated” are still not assigned numerical data: today both remain at <10 (less than 10).  The total numbers for other cities add up to 747, leaving 13 cases somewhere among the 2 locations in this “<10” category (one more than last reported).  Residents and city officials have pressured County officials for city case counts.  Today’s data is welcome, but still incomplete.

TOTAL HOSPITALIZATIONS:  98 of Solano’s 860 cases resulted in hospitalizations since the outbreak started, same as yesterday.  Cumulative hospitalizations is a most important stat to watch.  On May 1 there were 51 hospitalizations, and the daily increase was relatively steady, adding 2 or less each day.  But on May 22, the County reported 4 new hospitalizations, 9 more on May 29, and 3 more on June 2.  We are mostly back to 1 or 2 a day lately or even remaining steady.  We need to keep our eyes on these numbers.

ACTIVE CASES:  176 of the 860 cases are currently active, an increase of 29 over yesterday’s total.  Again, this is a something of a mystery to me, given that the County is reporting 49 NEW cases today.  49 NEW cases but only 29 additional ACTIVE cases?  I’m sure there’s an explanation, but….  Note that active cases had been trending lower until a steep increase last week and a huge jump this week.  (See Solano Health Officer’s explanation for yesterday’s spike.)  We were at 72 active cases on May 28; down to 42 on June 8, and bouncing back up to 88 on Friday June 12.  Now we’ve seen a 3-day jump to 176….  Below you will see that only 13 of the active cases are currently hospitalized, which leaves 163 of these 176 active cases out in our communities somewhere, and hopefully quarantined.

HOSPITAL IMPACT: The County shows 13 of the 98 hospitalized cases are CURRENTLY hospitalized, same as yesterday.  This is perhaps the most important stat to monitor – keep watching this one.  The County’s count of ICU beds available and ventilator supply remains at “GOOD” at 31-100%. (No information is given on our supply of test kits, PPE and staff.)
TESTING: The County reports that 19,474 residents have been tested as of today, an increase of 1,112 residents tested since yesterday.  Yesterday’s increase was reportedly zero – maybe today’s number is actually a 2-day total?  Testing has increased by a large degree over the last 2 weeks, and will continue to be a very important way of limiting and tracking outbreaks – please go get a test if you can!  Testing sites in Vallejo and Vacaville are open to anyone – see locations below.  We still have a long way to go: only 3.1% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

TESTING SITE LOCATIONS:
Vacaville – 1681 E Monte Vista Ave, Vacaville, CA 95688 (entrance at the end of Nut Tree Road)
Vallejo – 1121 Whitney Ave, Vallejo, CA (North Vallejo Community Center)

Solano’s curve – sharp upturn in cumulative cases as of June 19

This chart shows the infection’s steady upward trajectory in Solano County with a sudden jump this week.  Our nursing homes, long-term care facilities and jails bear watching, and social distancing is still incredibly important: everyone stay home if you don’t need to go out, wear masks when you do go out (especially in enclosed spaces), wash hands, and be safe!