Previous report, Wednesday, June 17

Summary

• Solano County reported 19 new positive cases today, total of 811 cases.
• No new deaths today, total of 23.
• Solano reported 15 additional active cases since yesterday, total 147, and 3 additional current hospitalizations, total 13.
• Testing – Solano county is reporting ZERO residents were tested since yesterday.  Could this be right??  If so, WHY?
• Youth – THIS IS IMPORTANT: 5 new cases today among the 17 and under age group, total 57.  There have been 52 new cases among Solano youth in the last 5 weeks, with only 6 new cases over the 5 weeks prior. (More on Solano youth data below.)

BY AGE GROUP

• 5 new cases today among those 17 and under, total of 57 cases, including one hospitalization. With today’s 5 new cases and yesterday’s 12 new cases, our concern is reaching the alarm stage: there have been 52 new cases among those age 17 and under in the last 5 weeks, with only 6 new cases over the 5 weeks prior!  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to 7.0% of the 811 total confirmed cases.  According to the SF Chronicle, “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention puts the figure of coronavirus-infected kids younger than 18 at around 4% of those with the disease.”  We are almost double the national rate!
• 14 new cases today among persons 18-49 years of age, total of 420 cases.  1 new hospitalization, no new deaths, total of 27 hospitalized at one time and 2 deaths.  This age group now represents nearly 52% of the 811 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.   27 of the 420 cases in this age group have been hospitalized at one time, 6.4% of total cases in the age group.
• No new cases among persons 50-64 years of age, total of 186 cases.  No new hospitalizations, no new deaths, total of 31 hospitalized at one time and 3 deaths.  This age group represents 22.9% of the 811 total cases.   31 of the 186 cases in this age group have been hospitalized at one time, 16.7% of total cases in the age group.
• No new cases among persons 65 years or older, total 148 cases, including no new hospitalizations and no new deaths, total of 39 hospitalized at one time and 18 deaths.  This age group represents 18.2% of the 811 total cases.  39 of the 148 cases in this age group (26.4%) were hospitalized at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  And… this group counts for 18 of the 23 deaths, over 78%.

CITY DATA

• Vallejo added 7 new cases today, total of 378.
• Fairfield added 7 new cases today, total of 226.
• Vacaville added 2 new cases today, total of 100 cases.
• Suisun City remained at 51 cases.
• Benicia remained at 25 cases.
• Dixon added 2 new cases today, total of 19 cases.
• Rio Vista and “Unincorporated” are still not assigned numerical data: today both remain at <10 (less than 10).  1 new case was evidently in this group today, unaccounted for among the other city counts.  The total numbers for other cities add up to 799, leaving 12 cases somewhere among the 2 locations in this “<10” category (one more than last reported).  Residents and city officials have pressured County officials for city case counts.  Today’s data is welcome, but still incomplete.

TOTAL HOSPITALIZATIONS:  98 of Solano’s 811 cases resulted in hospitalizations since the outbreak started, 1 more than yesterday.  Cumulative hospitalizations is a most important stat to watch.  On May 1 there were 51 hospitalizations, and the daily increase was relatively steady, adding 2 or less each day.  But on May 22, the County reported 4 new hospitalizations, 9 more on May 29, and 3 more on June 2.  We were back to 1 or 2 a day lately or even remaining steady until yesterday’s increase by 4.  We need to keep our eyes on these numbers.

ACTIVE CASES:  147 of the 811 cases are currently active, an increase of 15 over yesterday’s total.  Again, this is a something of a mystery to me, given that the County is reporting 19 NEW cases today.  19 NEW cases but only 15 additional ACTIVE cases?  I’m sure there’s an explanation, but….  Note that active cases had been trending lower until a steep increase last week and a huge jump yesterday.  (See Solano Health Officer’s explanation for yesterday’s spike.)  We were at 72 active cases on May 28; down to 42 on June 8, and bouncing back up to 88 on Friday June 12.  Now we’ve seen a 2-day jump to 147….  Below you will see that only 13 of the active cases are currently hospitalized, which leaves 134 of these 147 active cases out in our communities somewhere, and hopefully quarantined.

HOSPITAL IMPACT: The County shows 13 of the 98 hospitalized cases are CURRENTLY hospitalized, 3 more than yesterday.  This is perhaps the most important stat to monitor – keep watching this one.  The County’s count of ICU beds available and ventilator supply remains at “GOOD” at 31-100%. (No information is given on our supply of test kits, PPE and staff.)
TESTING: The County reports that 18,362 residents have been tested as of today, an increase of ZERO residents tested since yesterday!  What’s that all about??  Testing has increased by a large degree over the last 2 weeks, and will continue to be a very important way of limiting and tracking outbreaks – please go get a test if you can!  Testing sites in Vallejo and Vacaville are open to anyone – see locations below.  We still have a long way to go: only 3.1% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

TESTING SITE LOCATIONS:
Vacaville – 1681 E Monte Vista Ave, Vacaville, CA 95688 (entrance at the end of Nut Tree Road)
Vallejo – 1121 Whitney Ave, Vallejo, CA (North Vallejo Community Center)

Solano’s curve – sharp upturn in cumulative cases as of June 18

This chart shows the infection’s steady upward trajectory in Solano County with a sudden jump yesterday and today.  Our nursing homes, long-term care facilities and jails bear watching, and social distancing is still incredibly important: everyone stay home if you don’t need to go out, wear masks when you do go out (especially in enclosed spaces), wash hands, and be safe!