Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano reports only 21% of hospital ICU beds available – now in yellow danger zone

By Roger Straw, December 11, 2020

In this time of exploding numbers, NOW through mid-January at the least – please take extra precautions.  Stay home as much as you can, and make plans now for a different kind of Christmas, Hanukah and New Year celebration.  Wear a mask if you must go out, order groceries for pick-up or delivery, don’t stay long anywhere but home, and keep your distance more carefully than ever before.

Here are the Friday numbers – take note!

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE.  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.  Sorry, I can’t for the life of me explain the differences between Solano reporting and the State’s reporting….]

Friday, December 11: 200 (!) new cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since Feb: 12,733 cases, more than 600 hospitalized, 91 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Dec. 10:Summary

    • Solano County reported 200 (!) new cases overnight.  As of today, Solano has seen an average increase of 148 new cases per day over the last 14 days! (source: covid19.ca.gov)  Total of 12,733 cases since the outbreak started.
    • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, a total of 91 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
    • Active cases – Solano reported 21 fewer active cases today, but a total of 1,532 active cases – still incredibly high for Solano County.  The County has hit a new record high in 5 of the last 8 days!  Active cases are clearly increasing at an alarmingly rate lately – COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 1,532!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
    • Hospitalizations – (For COVID19-CA.GOV info, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.)  CAUTION ON SOLANO HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County “occasionally” updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  Today, Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons decreased by 4, total of 82.  But TOTAL hospitalized among age groups has not been updated since since November 30 when a total of 603 of all ages had been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Hopefully the County will update these figures at a later date.  [For my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.]
    • ICU Beds – Solano County reported only 21% of our ICU beds available today, deep in the yellow danger zone, and equaling the lowest we’ve seen in this county.  The San Francisco Chronicle reported today that ICU hospital bed capacity in two Solano cities are among the most impacted in the SF Bay Area: Vacaville with 91% of ICU beds occupied and Vallejo with 81% of ICU beds occupied.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
    • Testing – The County reports today that 1,420 residents were tested overnight, a total of 144,039 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.  32.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – Still very high at 14.5%

Solano County reported another high 7-day average positive test rate today of 14.5%, down a bit from yesterday’s 15.2% but still far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, up today from 10.0 to 10.5%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 24 (!) new cases today, total of 1,450 cases, representing 11.4% of the 12,733 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 117 (!) new cases today, total of 7,461 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 194 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 39 new cases today, total of 2,491 cases.  This age group represents nearly 20% of the 12,733 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 162 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 16 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 20 new cases today, total of 1,323, representing 10.4% of Solano’s 12,733 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 233 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 69 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 91 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 10 (!) new cases today, total of 337 cases since the outbreak began. 
  • Dixon added 10 new cases today, total of 918 cases.
  • Fairfield added 60 new cases today, total of 3,782 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 108 cases.
  • Suisun City added 11 new cases today, total of 884 cases.
  • Vacaville added 62 new cases today, total of 2,696 cases.
  • Vallejo added 47 new cases today, total of 3,965 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 43 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 22% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 27% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.
More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.