By Roger Straw, January 15, 2021
[From Solano County Public Health and others, see sources below.  For a running archive of daily County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE. 

14-Day Average of new cases per day: Vacaville 104, Vallejo 101, Fairfield 98, Suisun 23, Dixon 20, Benicia 12, Rio Vista 4 – STAY HOME!

Friday, January 15: 363 new Solano cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since Feb: 24,654 cases, over 780 hospitalized, 105 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Jan. 14:Summary

• • Solano County reported 363 new cases overnight.  In just the last 14 days, Solano has seen a huge increase in new cases. We’re averaging over 360 (!) new cases every day!  Total of 24,654 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, a total of 105 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 74 fewer active cases today for a total of 2,818 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 2,818!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Or do we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – (See expanding ICU capacity below.)  Today, Solano reported 5 more currently hospitalized cases, total of 165, but only 1 new hospitalization among the age groups.  We will have to wait for the County’s “occasional” large group of updated numbers on hospitalizations among the age groups.  Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note…
    >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday [Dec. 30], 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County Public Health reports that Solano hospitals are expanding ICU capacity: “‘NorthBay has opened up additional ICU space and Kaiser and Sutter plan to,’ Dr. Bela Matyas, the county public health officer, said in a phone interview.” [Fairfield Daily Republic, 1/14/21]  This is likely why Solano County reported a dramatic increase in ICU beds yesterday, up from 1% to 23%, and continuing at that level today, still in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had only 6 available ICU beds as of yesterday, January 14.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)

Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 23.4% – VIRUS SPREADING LIKE WILDFIRE, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at an alarming rate of 23.4%, down from yesterday’s 25.3%, and still around 3 times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down from yesterday’s 12.6% to 12.0% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – The holiday surge continues…

• Youth 17 and under – 51 new cases today, total of 2,818 cases, representing 11.4% of the 24,654 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 192 new cases today, total of 13,740 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.8% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 237 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 7 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 66 new cases today, total of 5,137 cases.  This age group represents 20.8% of the 24,654 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 212 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 53 new cases today, total of 2,948, representing a new high of 12.0% of Solano’s 24,654 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 318 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 80 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 105 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 10 new cases today, total of 681 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 26 new cases today, total of 1,515 cases.
• Fairfield added 115 new cases today, total of 6,913 cases.
• Rio Vista added 3 new cases today, total of 232 cases.
• Suisun City added 14 new cases today, total of 1,698 cases.
• Vacaville added 68 new cases today, total of 6,363 cases.
• Vallejo added 123 new cases today, total of 7,172 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 4 new cases today, total of 80 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 23% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 30% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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