By Roger Straw, Tuesday, February 16, 2021

COVID is still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – stay safe!

Tuesday, February 16: 329 new Solano cases over the 5-day weekend, 9 new deaths.  Since February 2020: 29,580 cases, over 865 hospitalized, 149 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, February 11:Summary

• • CASES – Solano County reported 329 new cases over the 5-day weekend, a total of 29,580 cases since the outbreak started.  In January, Solano added 8,495 new cases, for an average of 274 new cases per day.  In the first two weeks of February, the County reported 1,389 new cases, an average of 93 per day.
  • DEATHS – the County reported 9 new deaths over the 5-day weekend, 1 person 18-49 years old, 1 person 50-64 and 7 of our elders 65+.  A total of 149 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began.  27 COVID deaths were reported here in Solano County in just the first 2 weeks of February.  In the month of January, Solano recorded a total of 24 coronavirus deaths.  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge.  And we may see another surge in cases and deaths after the Super Bowl.
  • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 260 fewer active cases over the long weekend, a total of 581 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185 – and TODAY we are at 581.  Much better, but still, is the County equipped to contact trace all these infected persons?  My guess is we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • HOSPITALIZATIONS – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.)  Today, Solano reported 10 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 70.  However, the County reported no new hospitalizations among age groups, a total of 867 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  Accuracy of hospitalization numbers cannot be certain.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County fell back into the YELLOW DANGER ZONE, but has since moved up into the green zone, reporting 41% available today, up from 33% last week.  The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had only 14 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, February 15.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 64% of ventilators available, up from last week’s 54%, but still down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE of 11.7% – STILL HIGH, VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY SAFE!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test remains at 11.7%, same as last report, and well above the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was 3.5% today, down from last week’s 4.6%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 39 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 3,451 cases, representing 11.7% of the 29,580 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this age group, total of 18 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 18 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 173 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 16,319 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 245 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded 1 new death in this young group today, total of 10 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 68 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 6,183 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 29,580 total cases.  The County reported 1 fewer hospitalization among persons in this age group today, no doubt a data correction, and now a reduced total of 233 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death was reported in this age group today, a total of 24 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 49 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 3,616, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 29,580 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today, a total of 371 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  7 new deaths (!) were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 115 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 77% of Solano’s 149 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 11 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 840 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 19 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 1,730 cases.
• Fairfield added 85 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 8,052 cases.
• Rio Vista added 15 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 314 cases.
• Suisun City added 19 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 2,001 cases.
• Vacaville added 63 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 7,800 cases.
• Vallejo added 116 new cases over the 5-day weekend, total of 8,756 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 1 new case over the 5-day weekend, total of 87 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 14% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations, and 13% of deaths.
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 31% of hospitalizations and 34% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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