Have you heard this before?  Over and over and over – we’re in trouble, folks.  Stay home!

By Roger Straw, January 5, 2021  [Sources: see below.]

Tuesday, January 5: 270 new Solano cases overnight, 2 new deaths.  Since last Feb: 21,223 cases, over 750 hospitalized, 102 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, Jan. 4:Summary

• • Solano County reported 270 new cases overnight.  In just the last 14 days, Solano has seen an increase of 4,655 new cases.  We’re averaging 333 (!) new cases every day!  Total of 21,223 cases since the outbreak started.
    >>Vacaville has added 1,657 new cases in the last 2 weeks, over 118 per day! (Compare Vacaville in November: total of 761 cases over 30 days, averaging 26 per day.)  Something is going on in Vacaville!
  • Deaths – 2 new deaths reported today, one aged 50-64 and one over 65, a total of 102 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 966 more active cases today for a total of 2,605 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 2,605!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – Today, Solano reported 4 fewer CURRENTLY hospitalized persons, total of 160.  Among the age groups, the County reported no new hospitalizations, for a total of 757 persons hospitalized since the outbreak began.  But…  These numbers are surely meaningless; read on…
    >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday [Dec. 30], 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County reported a few more ICU beds available today, up from 17% to 20% available, still in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had only 11 available ICU beds as of yesterday, January 4.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)

Positive Test Rate – ALARMINGLY HIGH SOLANO TEST RATE OF 26.5% – VIRUS SPREADING LIKE WILDFIRE, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test rate today at an alarming rate of 26.5%, down from yesterday’s record high rate of 30.9%, and still over 3 times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was up from yesterday’s 11.6% to 13.6% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – Holiday surge upon holiday surge – in all age groups

• Youth 17 and under – 41 new cases today, total of 2,357 cases, representing 11.1% of the 21,223 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 125 new cases today, total of 11,980 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 56.5% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 1 fewer (!?) hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 237 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 7 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 64 new cases today, total of 4,426 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 21,223 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 209 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 40 new cases today, total of 2,451, representing 11.6% of Solano’s 21,223 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 294 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death was reported in this age group today.  A total of 77 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 75.5% of Solano’s 102 total deaths.
• Testing – Solano reports today that a 173,353 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began, and that a total of 225,052 tests have been performed on Solano residents. Thus, just nearly 52,000 tests have been administered on residents who had been previously tested. 38.7% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

City Data

• Benicia added 9 new cases today, total of 574 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 14 new cases today, total of 1325 cases.
• Fairfield added 63 new cases today, total of 5,966 cases.
• Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 194 cases.
• Suisun City added 12 new cases today, total of 1,473 cases.
• Vacaville added 117 (!) new cases today, total of 5,479 cases.
• Vallejo added 53 new cases today, total of 6,145 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 1 new case today, total of 66 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 15% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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