By Roger Straw, Monday, February 1, 2021

Case totals for the month of January and daily averages BY CITY.
Get vaccinated!  Otherwise, stay home whenever possible – this is not over!

Monday, February 1: 485 new Solano cases over the weekend, no new deaths.  Since Feb 2020: 28,191 cases, over 830 hospitalized, 122 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Jan. 29:Summary

• • Solano County reported 485 new cases over the weekend, total of 28,191 cases since the outbreak started.  In the month of January, Solano added 8,495 new cases, for an AVERAGE of 274 new cases per day.
  • Deaths – the County reported no new deaths today; a total of 122 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.  In the month of January, Solano recorded 24 coronavirus deaths, for an AVERAGE of nearly 1 per day.  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is the final sad result of our holiday surge.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 321 fewer active cases today, a total of 1,237 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658 – and TODAY we are at 1,237.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  My guess is we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.)  Today, Solano reported 8 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 129.  However, in the number of hospitalizations among age groups, the county reported an increase of 10 new hospitalizations.  The County reported 1 hospitalization in the 18-49 age group, 1 in the 50-64 year age group and 8 more in the 65+ age group, for a total of 830 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.) Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note>>  In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the County’s count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano hospitals recently expanded their ICU capacity [see Benicia Independent, “Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?“]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has dropped back and remained in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE in ICU beds available, up from 13% Friday, to 23% today.  The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had ONLY 10 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, January 31.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • Ventilators available – Last week, for the first time since July 24 of last year, Solano County is reporting the percentage of ventilators available.  Today Solano hospitals have 51% of ventilators available, up from 49% Friday but down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 14.8% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at an alarming rate of 14.8%, down from Friday’s 16.9%, but still well above the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down from Friday’s 7.4% to 6.5% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 52 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,265 cases, representing 11.6% of the 28,191 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 266 new cases over the weekend, total of 15,558 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 242 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 9 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 110 new cases over the weekend, total of 5,911 cases.  This age group represents 21% of the 28,191 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 223 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 57 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,446, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 28,191 total cases.  The County reported 8 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 348 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 95 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 122 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 21 new cases over the weekend, total of 803 cases since the outbreak began.  274 new cases in January, avg. of 8.8 per day.
• Dixon added 29 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,674 cases.  424 new cases in January, avg. of 14 per day.
• Fairfield added 110 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,733 cases.  2,180 new cases in January, avg. of 70 per day.
• Rio Vista added 3 new cases over the weekend, total of 267 cases.  99 new cases in January, avg. of 3 per day.
• Suisun City added 19 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,907 cases.  542 new cases in January, avg. of 17 per day.
• Vacaville added 140 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,451 cases.  2,457 new cases in January, avg. of 79 per day.
• Vallejo added 163 new cases over the weekend, total of 8270 cases.  2,494 new cases in January, avg. of 80 per day.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 86 cases.  25 new cases in January, avg. of nearly 1 per day.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations, and 15% of deaths.
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations and 34% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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