[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Thursday, October 1: 30 new cases overnight,
no new hospitalizations, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak began: 6,475 cases, 395 hospitalized, 71 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Sept 30:Summary

• Solano County reported 30 new cases today, total of 6,475 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 421 new cases, average of over 30 per day.
• Deaths – Thankfully, no new reports of COVID deaths today.  RECENT SPIKE: 16 deaths reported in the last 9 days, total of 71 Solano deaths.
  Deaths reported Sept 22 – Oct 1:
  – 1 very young person 18-49 years;
  – 2 middle agers 50-64 years;
  – 13 of our elders aged 65+
  For details on Tuesday’s report of 4 deaths, 3 of which were in Solano care facilities, see the Daily Republic report: Recent Covid-related deaths at Fairfield, Vallejo care centers climb to 9
• Active cases – Solano reported 22 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 247.  Note that only 19 of these 247 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
• Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 5 today, total of 19.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started remained even today, total of 395.  (Seriously, I’m not sure how this can be – 5 more currently hospitalized, yet no increase in hospitalizations among any age group….  Again, Solano must be adjusting previous reporting without explanation.) (See age group hospitalization stats below).
• ICU Beds –The County reported another reduction in the percentage of ICU beds available, down from 40% yesterday to 39% today.  This after hovering at or above 50% over the past week. (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
• Testing – The County reports today that only 40 (!) residents were tested overnight, new total of 89,765.  Is this an error?  Or is something going on?  (Solano has AVERAGED over 500 tested per day during the last 3 weeks.)  Whatever, Solano has a long way to go; only 20% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell a bit today from 4.7% to 4.3%.
For the record, Solano’s test rate crested the week of July 15-22, when it peaked at 9.3%.  The County has hit 7% (or more) three times since, on August 21, September 1 and September 2.  In the 4 weeks since then, our test rate has run as high as 6.5% and as low as 2.7% (on Sept 11), averaging 4.2%.
The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us little or nothing, not worth posting here.
Percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California
7-day test rate remained steady today, at 2.8%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 6 new cases today, total of 727 cases, representing 11.2% of the 6,475 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 11 new cases today, total of 3,871 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 129 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 7 new cases today, total of 1,233 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,475 total cases.
  No new hospitalizations today, total of 105 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 6 new cases, total of 643.  No new hospitalizations, total of 155.  And no new deaths, total of 53 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group is related to outbreaks at Fairfield and Vallejo care facilities.  (For details on Tuesday’s report of 4 deaths, 3 of which were in Solano care facilities, see the Daily Republic report: Recent Covid-related deaths at Fairfield, Vallejo care centers climb to 9.)  This age group’s 643 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,475 total cases.  In this older age group, 24% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 53 of the 71 deaths, or 75%.

City Data

• Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 174 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 1 new case today, total of 420 cases.
• Fairfield added 9 new cases today, total of 2,097 cases.
• Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 52 cases.
• Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 476 cases.
• Vacaville added 5 new cases today, total of 1,088 cases.
• Vallejo added 7 new cases today, total of 2,147 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 1 more case today, total of 21 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 27% of hospitalizations and as of today 31% of deaths.  NOTE: A week ago, the percentage of deaths of White Americans began to rise sharply. After hovering at 20-21% for months, White American deaths rose suddenly to 25% on Thursday Sept. 24.  Then to 26% on Monday Sept. 28, to 28% on Tuesday Sept. 29 and to 31% yesterday and today.  It seems likely this increase corresponds to the recent spike of cases and deaths in Solano care facilities.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.