No new hospitalizations or deaths for 2 days in a row…but still reporting 42 new positive cases today!

[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Friday, October 9: 42 new cases overnight, no new hospitalizations, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak began: 6,750 cases, 403 hospitalized, 74 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Oct. 8:Summary

• Solano County reported 42 new cases today, total of 6,750 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last week, Solano reported 230 new cases, average of 33 per day.
• Deaths – no new deaths today.  RECENT SPIKE: 19 deaths reported in the last 18 days, total of 74 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  Deaths reported Sept 22 – Oct 9:
  – 1 very young person 18-49 years;
  – 4 middle agers 50-64 years;
  – 14 of our elders aged 65+ ;
• Active cases – Solano reported 13 additional ACTIVE cases today and another 61 new ACTIVE cases in the two days before, total of 284.  Note that only 22 of these 284 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
• Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons increased by 2 today, total of 22.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started remained unchanged, total of 403.  (See age group hospitalization stats below).
• ICU Beds –2 days ago, the County reported significantly fewer ICU beds available, down from 42% to only 30%.  This continued unchanged for 2 days, but returned to 43% today.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
• Testing – The County reports today that 654 residents were tested overnight, new total of 93,506.  (Solano has AVERAGED just under 520 tested per day during the last 3 weeks.)  Solano has a long way to go; only 20.9% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell today from 5.6% to 5.0%.  Solano’s test rate crested the week of July 15-22, when it peaked at 9.3%.  The County has hit 7% (or more) three times since, on August 21, September 1 and September 2.  In the 5 weeks since then, our test rate was reported as high as 6.5% and as low as 2.7% (on Sept 11), averaging 4.23%.
Daily percent positive: On Oct. 7 the County’s line graph for positive test rate spiked to 12% on October 4.  The next day showed Oct. 4 at only 7%, and Oct. 5 at 11%.  Today, both are at 7%.  The only conceivable explanation is that past daily rates change as new reports come in to the County, so each newly reported day’s rate isn’t  meaningful information.  In future, I will only report on the 7-day average.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California 7-day test rate remained at 2.5% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 4 new cases today, total of 753 cases, representing 11.2% of the 6,750 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued just over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 27 new cases today, total of 4,033 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 131 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 8 new cases today, total of 1,291 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,750 total cases. No new hospitalizations today, total of 109 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 3 new cases, total of 672.  No new hospitalizations, total of 157.  No new deaths, total of 54 of our elders who died of COVID.  This age group’s 672 cases represent 10% of the 6,750 total cases.  In this older age group, 23.4% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 54 of the 74 deaths, or 73%.

City Data

• Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 180 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 3 new cases today, total of 436 cases.
• Fairfield added 15 new cases today, total of 2,179 cases.
• Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 54 cases.
• Suisun City remained steady today, total of 493 cases.
• Vacaville added 5 new cases today, total of 1,146 cases.
• Vallejo added 18 new cases today, total of 2,240 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 22 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 27% of hospitalizations and 30% of deaths.  NOTE: On September 24, the percentage of deaths of White Americans in Solano County began to rise sharply. After hovering at 20-21% for months, White American deaths rose to 31% in a matter of days.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.