Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Dangerous Coronavirus surge continues unchecked in Solano County – we need to be under lockdown

163 new cases in Solano County overnight; ACTIVE cases nearing 2,000; ICU beds down to dangerous level of only 11% available, and positivity rate at 18%.  The virus is spreading here among all age groups.  I expect the Bay Area to fall under the stay-at-home order tomorrow or next day – and it’s evident that Solano County should be there voluntarily now.  Numbers follow…

By Roger Straw, December 15, 2020  [Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard (posted on the County website late today, around 8pm).  For a complete archive of County updates, see my Excel ARCHIVE.  ALSO see important daily updates from the state of California at COVID19.CA.GOV, embedded here on the BenIndy at Cases and Deaths AND Hospitalizations AND ICU Beds by REGION.]

Tuesday, December 15: 163 new cases overnight, no new deaths.  Since Feb: 13,897 cases, more than 600 hospitalized, 91 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, Dec. 14:Summary

    • Solano County reported 163 new cases overnight.  As of today, Solano has seen an average increase of 211 (!) new cases per day over the last 14 days! (source: covid19.ca.gov)  Total of 13,897 cases since the outbreak started.
    • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, a total of 91 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
    • Active cases – Solano reported 55 fewer active cases today, but a total of 1,802 active cases.  Active cases are soaring, COMPARE: average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 1,802!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
    • Hospitalizations – (For COVID19-CA.GOV info, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.)  CAUTION ON SOLANO HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County “occasionally” updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  Today, Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons increased by 14, total of 118.  But TOTAL hospitalized among age groups was updated only slightly today, showing 606 of all ages had been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Hopefully the County will update these figures in greater detail at a later date.  [For my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.]
    • ICU Beds – Solano County reported only 11% of our ICU beds available today, deep in the yellow danger zone, and the lowest we’ve seen in this county.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano hospitals were down to only 8 available ICU beds as of yesterday, December 14.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
    • Testing – The County reports today that 1,713 residents were tested overnight, a total of 149,263 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.  33.3% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – INCREDIBLY HIGH AT 17.8%

Solano County reported another dangerously high 7-day average positive test rate today of 17.8%, down from yesterday’s 19.0% but far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, up today from 10.6 to 11.1%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group
  • Youth 17 and under – 19 new cases today, total of 1,553 cases, representing 11.2% of the 13,897 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 14 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 86 (!) new cases today, total of 8,131 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents around 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 195 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 36 new cases today, total of 2,757 cases.  This age group represents nearly 20% of the 13,897 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 163 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 16 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 22 new cases today, total of 1,448, representing 10.4% of Solano’s 13,897 total cases.  The County reported 1 new hospitalization among persons in this age group today.  A total of 234 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 69 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 91 total deaths.
City Data
  • Benicia added 6 new cases today, total of 380 cases since the outbreak began. 
  • Dixon added 13 new cases today, total of 976 cases.
  • Fairfield added 40 new cases today, total of 4,099 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 113 cases.
  • Suisun City added 9 new cases today, total of 967 cases.
  • Vacaville added 38 new cases today, total of 3,037 cases.
  • Vallejo added 55 new cases today, total of 4,274 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas added 1 new case today, total of 51 cases.
Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 22% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 27% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.
More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.