Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano reports 4 more COVID deaths, 14 in the last week: 1 youth, 2 middle-agers, 11 elders

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

[NOTE: It is not clear if today’s report of 4 deaths actually represents NEW deaths.  Dr. Bela Matyas, Solano public health officer, said last week that some recent death reports were updating discrepancies in reporting from last summer.  But Matyas indicated last Friday that he believed the county records had been fully brought up to date.  >> Whether the recent newly reported deaths are newly deceased or from last summer, it is sad and newsworthy that Solano COVID deaths have increased by 14 in the last 7 days.  – R.S.]

Tuesday, September 29: 19 new cases overnight, 3 hospitalizations, 4 deaths.  Since the outbreak began: 6,419 cases, 392 hospitalized, 69 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, Sept 28:Summary

  • Solano County reported 19 new cases today, total of 6,419 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last week, Solano reported 225 new cases, average of 32 per day.
  • Deaths – RECENT SPIKE: 14 deaths reported in the last week including 4 new deaths reported today, total of 69 Solano deaths.  Deaths reported Sept 22 – 29:
    – 1 very young person 18-49 years;
    – 2 middle agers 50-64 years;
    – 11 of our elders aged 65+
  • Active cases – Solano reported 23 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 220.  Note that only 16 of these 220 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons remained the same today, total of only 16.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 3 today, total of 392. (See age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 55% of ICU beds available, same as yesterday.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 522 residents were tested overnight, new total of 88,724.  Solano has a long way to go: only 19.8% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell today from 5.3% to 4.8%.
For the record, Solano’s test rate crested the week of July 15-22, when it peaked at 9.3%.  The County has hit 7% or more three times since, on August 21 and September 1 and 2.  In the 4 weeks since then, our test rate has run as high as 6.5% and as low as 2.7% (on Sept 11), averaging 4.1%.
The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us little or nothing, not worth posting here.
Percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California
7-day test rate remained steady today, at 2.9%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 1 new case today, total of 715 cases, representing 11.1% of the 6,419 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 11 new cases today, total of 3,847 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 129 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 6 new cases today, total of 1,222 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,419 total cases.
    1 new hospitalization today, total of 105 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 1 new case, total of 634.  2 new hospitalizations, total of 152.  4 new deaths, total of 51 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group may be related to an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 634 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,419 total cases.  In this older age group, 24% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 51 of the 69 deaths, or 74%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 169 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 1 new case today, total of 418 cases.
  • Fairfield added 3 new cases today, total of 2,082 cases.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 52 cases.
  • Suisun City remained steady today, total of 468 cases.
  • Vacaville added 6 new cases today, total of 1,080 cases.
  • Vallejo added 7 new cases today, total of 2,130 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 20 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 25% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 28% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano COVID update: 2 more deaths, test rate rises again

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Monday, September 28: 91 new cases over the weekend, no new hospitalizations, 2 deaths.  Since the outbreak began: 6,400 cases, 389 hospitalized, 65 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Sept 25:Summary

  • Solano County reported 91 new cases today, total of 6,400 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 463 new cases, average of 33 per day.
  • Deaths – RECENT SPIKE: 8 new deaths reported last week and 2 new deaths today, total of 65 Solano deaths.  Both new deaths were persons 65 years or older.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 26 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 243.  Note that only 16 of these 243 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons dropped by 5 today, total of only 16.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started remained steady today, total of 389. (See age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU Beds –The County reported 55% of ICU beds available, up 5% today.  (After 8 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 1,413 residents were tested over the weekend, new total of 88,202.  Solano has a long way to go: only 19.7% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate rose dramatically today from 3.9% to 5.3%.  Our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has jumped all over the place recently (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, just three weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Then two weeks ago we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California
7-day test rate rose slightly today, from 2.8% to 2.9%.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 13 new cases over the weekend, total of 714 cases, representing 11.2% of the 6,400 total cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths.  In recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 53 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,836 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 129 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 19 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,216 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,400 total cases.  No new hospitalizations today, total of 104 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Today the County reported 6 new cases, total of 633.  No new hospitalizations, total of 150.  2 new deaths, total of 47 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group may be related to an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 633 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,400 total cases.  In this older age group, 23.7% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 47 of the 65 deaths, or 72%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 167 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 4 new cases today, total of 417 cases.
  • Fairfield added 23 new cases today, total of 2,079 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 4 new cases today, total of 52 cases.
  • Suisun City added 7 new cases today, total of 468 cases.
  • Vacaville added 18 new cases today, total of 1,074 cases.
  • Vallejo added 33 new cases today, total of 2,123 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 20 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 26% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

2020 elections, Benicia elections, Vote by Mail

Election Day? No! This week (Sept 28-Oct 3) is ELECTION WEEK!

Everything you need to know to vote early – THIS WEEK!

Beginning October 5, you can drop off your ballot at a Solano County ballot drop box like this one at our Benicia City Clerk’s office. Here’s the list of drop boxes in all 7 Solano cities.
Coronavirus, Covid 19, Hospitalizations, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Officer Bela Matyas

Solano County does not have reliable information on each day’s new COVID hospitalizations

Dr. Matyas responds to my request for daily updates on TOTAL hospitalizations since the pandemic began

By Roger Straw, September 28, 2020
Background
Roger Straw, The Benicia Independent

On September 24, I wrote to Dr. Bela Matyas, asking him to restore a TOTAL count of COVID hospitalizations since the pandemic began:

Please consider this request:  From the earliest days of the pandemic and through July 10, the County’s COVID dashboard showed Total Hospitalizations.

Beginning on July 13, the dashboard only shows Current Hospitalizations.  The daily change in Current Hospitalizations must be the difference between admissions and discharges, plus or minus, which is important to know.

However, the public needs to also know how many NEW admissions on a daily basis in order to accurately understand spread.  This can easily be seen in the daily update of Total Hospitalizations.

Please consider restoring Total Hospitalizations to the COVID dashboard.

Dr. Matyas sent the following reply on September 27:
Dr. Bela Matyas, Solano County Public Health Officer

“The daily change in total hospitalizations does not faithfully represent new hospitalizations; the majority of added hospitalizations day over day is from reconciliation of previously hospitalized cases that we learn about in arrears. It is likely to be a substantially under-reported number.

Hospitalization is not a reportable condition on an individual level; hospital capacity is the condition that we are monitoring, and total hospitalizations per day is the relevant metric. Reporting total hospitalizations to date on a daily basis would be a misleading indicator for tracking new hospitalizations both because of the timing of reports and the under-reporting of hospitalizations.”

My response today:

Dr. Matyas – Thank you for your response to my email. With respect, I think I disagree. Regardless whether a daily update of TOTAL hospitalizations since the outbreak began includes ONLY new hospitalizations TODAY or both new TODAY and “newly learned in arrears” hospitalizations, the metric of total hospitalizations (and a 7 or 14 day average graph showing the curve of that metric) would be of great significance in understanding the overall spread of the most serious cases.

This daily increase, whether learned in arrears or not, is important for the public’s awareness. MOST IMPORTANTLY, reporting on hospitalizations in this way might help in cautioning the public to take seriously the continuing need for masks, social distancing, hand washing, etc. As our public health officer, I’d hope you might stop and think about this again. Seems it wouldn’t hurt the cause at all to add this metric to the County’s COVID dashboard, and shouldn’t be too hard to calculate the data as I have been doing, working from the AGE GROUP data.

I will continue to add together the newly reported daily reported increase of hospitalizations in the AGE GROUP data in order to determine the daily increase in TOTAL hospitalizations. And I will continue to let the public know.

Roger Straw
Benicia

Click the image for Solano County COVID-19 Updates and Resources

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