California, Coronavirus, Covid 19, San Francisco Bay Area, Test positivity rates

COVID-19 “test positivity rates” in California, U.S.

Coronavirus: California continues troubling trend upward in COVID-19 metrics

With the weekend delays accounted for, the 7-day average of new cases climbed to its highest point of the pandemic
Vallejo Times-Herald, by Evan Webeck, July 7, 2020

The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases in California soared as Los Angeles County reported three days’ worth of test results Monday.

The raw number of cases reported around the state Monday obliterated the previous record but comes with an enormous caveat: a number of counties, including L.A., which itself accounts for nearly half the state’s confirmed cases, had backlogs of test results of up to three days because of the long holiday weekend. In total, the statewide case count grew by 16,637, including 8,903 in Los Angeles, to 271,889, according to data compiled by this news organization. Another 109 Californians succumbed to the virus — 81 in Los Angeles — raising the death toll to 6,446.

With the weekend delays accounted for, the average number of new cases reported around the state each day for the past week climbed to its highest point of the pandemic. For the first time, California is adding more 7,000 new cases per day — 7,041, 28.6% more than a week ago — while the average daily death count reached its highest level in more than a month: 67 lives taken by the virus each day over the past week.

Hospitalizations and test-positivity rate, two metrics frequently cited by Gov. Gavin Newsom and local health officials, also continued to slope upward. There were 5,790 patients hospitalized statewide Sunday, including 504 in the Bay Area. In the past two weeks, the number of COVID-19 patients in hospital beds has doubled in the Bay Area while rising 56% statewide.

Even as some counties near capacity, there remain plenty of open hospital and ICU beds around the state. Riverside County’s ICUs were 94% full Sunday — down from 99% last week, though more were COVID-19 patients (9.5% of ICU beds on June 27; 13.9% on July 5) — while hospitals in the Bay Area are accepting transfers from other counties. Statewide, COVID-19 patients continue to take up about 8% of the state’s hospital beds.

The percentage of tests to come back positive over the past seven days also crossed the 7% threshold for the first time since the end of April. In two weeks, it has risen from 4.9% to 7.5% even as the state conducts more tests. Labs around the state reported 25% more positive tests in the past week than the one before (6,826 per day vs. 5,499), despite conducting 12.5% more tests (104,523 per day vs. 92,848).

Newsom has previously said “each decimal point is profoundly impactful” when it comes to positivity rate. But California’s still lags many other states, despite recording among the most cases. Its 7.5% rate ranks 18th among all 50 states, well behind Arizona (25.3%) and Florida (18.7%). The country’s rate has seen a similar spike: below the 5% threshold three weeks ago, to 7.8% now.

The World Health Organization has said positivity rates should remain at 5% or below for 14 days before beginning to reopen. Currently, only 23 states meet that metric, according to Johns Hopkins University and the COVID Tracking Project.

Bakken Crude, Bakken Pipeline, Bakken Shale, Dakota Access, Keeping Watch on Earth News

Hard times ahead for Bakken oil industry – maybe the end?

Why The Bakken May Not Come Back

OilPrice.com, by Nick Cunningham, Jul 07, 2020

The Bakken shale is already declining because of financial struggles and the oil market downturn, but the potential shuttering of the Dakota Access pipeline could close off the possibility of a rebound.

The 570,000-barrel-per-day oil pipeline carries Bakken oil to the Midwest. On Monday, a federal judge ordered the pipeline to shut down within 30 days after vacating authorization for the project. Energy Transfer immediately appealed for a “provisional stay,” but on Tuesday, U.S. District Court Judge James Boasberg shot down that request.

Energy Transfer will still file a conventional appeal to stay the judge’s order, and surely the company will follow through on that as quick as possible. But it’s not clear how quickly the judge will respond to that; meanwhile he ordered Dakota Access to be drained by August 5.

Even if a stay is granted, the pause could be “short-lived,” ClearView Energy Partners wrote in a note to clients. The firm cited a separate case involving an electric transmission line that resulted in the Army Corps of Engineers being forced to undertake an environmental impact statement after the project was completed.

“Put another way, even conservative jurists can back a court ruling that finds agency environmental reviews flawed and should be suspended while redone,” ClearView Energy Partners wrote. “[T]he horizon for Dakota Access may be darkening,” the firm added.

Assuming that Dakota Access goes offline and undergoes an environmental assessment, which could take the better part of a year, the process will drag on into a potential Joe Biden administration. At that point, the Army Corps, under a new direction, may change its stance, killing off the pipeline.

Time will tell, but in the interim, the temporary closure is an enormous victory for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe. “This pipeline should have never been built here. We told them that from the beginning,” the Tribe’s Chairperson Mike Faith said.Related: China Inks Military Deal With Iran Under Secretive 25-Year Plan

If Dakota Access is forced to shut down for good, it could head off any hopes on the part of the oil industry to revive production in the Bakken. Without the pipeline, a large portion of Bakken production would need to return to the practice of moving large volumes by rail.

“I think everybody is forming their game plan now, and if they have tank cars, they’re probably thanking their lucky stars,” one source familiar with Bakken rail operations told Reuters.

However, a sudden rush of shipping oil-by-rail will increase the risk of derailments and explosions. Early on in the Bakken shale boom, it was all too common for oil trains to derail and explode, earning them the nickname of “bomb trains.” A return of oil train shipments would increase safety risks.

Meanwhile, because putting oil on rail is more costly, Bakken crude would need to be discounted for the process to make sense.

Already, the region is seeing a larger discount. Shortly after the court decision ordering Dakota Access to shut down, the price of Bakken oil at the hub of Clearbrook, Minnesota declined. Relative to WTI, the discount widened from $1.15 per barrel to $2.75 per barrel, according to Bloomberg, which was the largest markdown since May.Related: The Death Of The $2 Trillion Auto Industry Will Come Sooner Than Expected

The Bakken was already slowing down before the pandemic. Years of red ink from shale drillers soured investors on the whole fracking enterprise, but that is particularly true in the Bakken. For example, Continental Resources, which has a prominent presence in the Bakken, saw its stock price fall in half between late 2018 and late 2019.

Bakken production hit a peak in October and November of last year at just over 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), before declining to 1.43 mb/d in February, just before the global pandemic rocked the market.

Because the North Dakota region has much less storage capacity than Texas and Oklahoma, Bakken drillers were immediately squeezed when the market went into a tailspin, forcing them to shut in thousands of wells. The EIA expects production from the Bakken to dip below 1 mb/d in July.

A source at one unnamed Bakken oil producer said that the region’s total production will need to decline to 950,000 bpd in August if Dakota Access shuts down. At the start of this week, Continental’s share price is off by more than 15 percent, a reflection of the negative impact of the DAPL shutdown.

“Production of crude oil is going to be landlocked in North Dakota,” Sandy Fielden, director of oil and products research at Morningstar, told Reuters. “It’s going to be congested and that’s going to cause discounts in the price of Bakken crude to WTI.”

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Dakota Access, Environmental Impacts, Keeping Watch on Earth News, National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), Pipeline transport, Standing Rock Sioux, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Dakota pipeline shutdown: temporary victory for Standing Rock Sioux Tribe

Court Orders Dakota Access Pipeline To Shut Down Pending Environmental Review

Forbes, by Elana Lyn Gross, Jul 6, 2020
Native Nations Rise Portland Protest Against DAPL
Ow Hi of the Warm Springs tribe takes part in a protest showing solidarity with the “Native Nations … [+] GETTY IMAGES

TOPLINE

Three years after the Dakota Access pipeline first started carrying oil, a federal judge ordered Monday that the pipeline must be shut down during a court-ordered environmental review that is necessary because the U.S. government violated federal environmental law, in a decision seen as a victory for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and a defeat for the oil industry and President Donald Trump, who backed it in 2017.

KEY FACTS

  • In 2016, the Standing Rock Sioux, Cheyenne River Sioux and other American Indian tribes sued the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for approving the Dakota Access pipeline, saying it put tribal water supplies and cultural resources at risk.
  • The Obama administration paused the project in 2016 after thousands of pipeline opponents protested, but Trump put it back on track after taking office in 2017.
  • U.S. District Judge James Boasberg wrote that the court found that the U.S. Amy Corps of Engineers violated the National Environmental Policy Act when it granted an easement to Dakota Access to create a segment of the crude-oil pipeline without writing the required Environmental Impact Statement.
  • Energy Transfer Partners, the parent company of the Dakota Access pipeline, argued that the project could lose as much as $643 million in 2020 and $1.4 billion in 2021 and that the shutdown would have serious consequences for the North Dakota oil industry and the entire state of North Dakota because its economy is largely dependent on revenue from oil and gas taxes; the tribes argued that the projections were “wildly exaggerated” because a collapse in oil prices, demand and production had already caused production to plummet.
  • The court noted the “serious effects” the shutdown would have for many states, companies and workers but wrote that, “given the seriousness of the Corps’ … error, the impossibility of a simple fix, the fact that Dakota Access did assume much of its economic risk knowingly, and the potential harm each day the pipeline operates, the Court is forced to conclude that the flow of oil must cease.”
  • Energy Transfer told Bloomberg Law it plans to immediately ask Boasberg to freeze the decision and will head to the U.S. Court of Appeals if the request is denied.

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“Today is a historic day for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and the many people who have supported us in the fight against the pipeline,” Standing Rock Sioux Tribal Chairman Mike Faith said in a statement provided to Bloomberg Law. “This pipeline should have never been built here. We told them that from the beginning.”

KEY CONTEXT

The decision states that the pipeline must be shut down within 30 days and can not re-open until the report is created. The court expects it will take 13 months.

TANGENT

Hollywood celebrities including Jane Fonda, Mark Ruffalo, Susan Sarandon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Gal Gadot and Ben Affleck spoke out against the pipeline and Shailene Woodley was arrested at a protest.

FURTHER READING

Dakota Access Oil Line To Be Shut By Court In Blow For Trump (Bloomberg)

Shailene Woodley: The Truth About My Arrest (TIME)

Hollywood A-Listers Join Protests Against Controversial Dakota Access Pipeline (Fox News)

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano County sees 86 new COVID-19 cases, upticks in Benicia and Fairfield, 2 new deaths

Tuesday, July 7: 86 new cases today,
2 new deaths. Since the outbreak started: 1,826 cases, 107 hospitalized, 27 deaths.

Compare previous report, Monday July 6:Summary

  • Solano County reported 86 new cases today, total of 1,826 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 538 new cases, an average of 77 per day.
  • 2 new deaths today, both over 65 years, total of 27.
  • Hospitalizations – Solano is reporting 8 more currently hospitalized since yesterday, for a total of 35, but… no increase in the number hospitalized since the outbreak started, total of 107.  (Huh?  This is a puzzle…  Maybe a number of discharged patients were re-admitted?  Or the County is correcting an error?)
  • Active cases – Solano reported 24 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 317.  This figure has been climbing: a week ago Monday there were 70 active cases, increasing to a high of 369 on Thursday, down to 293 yesterday and back up today to 317.  Only 35 of those active cases are hospitalized – a whole lot of infected people are out among us, hopefully quarantined.
  • ICU beds Available fell 4% to 31%.  Ventilators Available dropped 2% to 86%.
  • Testing – Solano County reported 455 residents were tested since yesterday, total of 34,329.  We still have a long way to go: only 7.7% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Details and Demographics tab

The County’s Public Health Dashboard includes a second tab (panel), “Details and Demographics” (shown here).  Note that the Summary tab and this Details tab are both user interactive – hover over a chart (or tap) to get details. On this Details tab, most of the small charts have a small additional tab showing the rate per 100,000.   Go there and explore the two tabs.  (Expand a chart by clicking the small button in its upper right corner.)

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 15 new cases today, total of 179 cases, and no new hospitalizations, total only 2.  Two weeks ago, there were only 70 cases among this age group – we’ve seen over 100 new cases in 15 days!  I continue to be alarmed for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to nearly 10% of the 1,826 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 50 new cases today, total of 1,077 cases.  This age group represents 59% of the 1,826 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 1  fewer hospitalization among this age group today, (no explanation) total of 28 hospitalized at one time, and 2 deaths.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 16 new cases today, total of 355 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 1,826 total cases.
    1 new hospitalization today, total of 36 hospitalized at one time.  No new deaths, total of 3 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 5 new cases today, total of 214 cases.  This age group represents 12% of the 1,826 total cases.  No new hospitalizations, total of 41 hospitalized at one time.
    2 new deaths, total of 22 deaths.  In this older age group, 19% were hospitalized at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  And this group counts for 22 of the 27 deaths, or 81%.

Incidence Rate: Cases, Hospitalizations, Deaths

On the Age Group chart (and also on the Race/Ethnicity Chart) there are “Rate” tabs.  Today’s report shows Solano County with:

    • Solano County has 406 positive cases per population of 100,000 (Compare this number with the City incidence rates, below.)
    • 26 Solano hospitalizations per population of 100,000
    • 5 Solano deaths per population of 100,000

Percent Positive Test Rates

Increasingly, national, state and county news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  Five Bay Area counties report daily on their seven-day average percent positive test rate, but Solano County does not.  This information is immediately important, as positive test rates in California and other southwestern states are increasing.  I wrote and asked Dr. Matyas on June 24 to supply information as to Solano County’s “percent positive test rate.”  He replied next day with thanks and wrote, “We are actively working to include these values on our County dashboard.  I hope we can begin to report on them sometime next week.”  That was nearly 2 weeks ago….

City Data

  • Vallejo added 20 new cases today, total of 640.
  • Fairfield added 33 new cases today, total of 620.  Fairfield has seen over 250 new cases over the last week, and is now approaching Vallejo’s total for positive cases.
  • Vacaville added 19 new cases today, total of 282 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 119 cases.
  • Benicia added 4 new cases today, total of 37 cases.  Benicia was extremely stable with no new cases for 14 days June 15-29, and added only 2 cases for the entire month of June.  Now… Benicia has seen 12 new cases in the past week.  The numbers are small in comparison, but something’s definitely going on in Benicia!
  • Dixon added 3 new case today, total of 104 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case, total of 17 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Although the County still still shows Unincorporated at <10 (less than 10), a little math tells the story: Solano’s unincorporated areas remained at 7 cases, unaccounted for in the other City totals.
  • A “Rate” column shows the rate of positive COVID-19 cases (per 100,000 population) for each city.  Benicia has the lowest rate, 134.2 cases per 100,000.  Compare Solano cities’ incidence rates in the chart, and note that the CDC reports today’s rate in California at 658 per 100,000 (up from 558 yesterday).

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity data includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 23% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 13% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 29% of hospitalizations, and 35% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 37% of cases.  They account for 26% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases and 14% of hospitalizations, but 19% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

For safe and healthy communities…