Bay Area COVID-19 curve is relatively flat, while Solano County is spiking?

Solano County coronavirus cases, April 3, 2020
[Editor: So the “Bay Area” curve is remaining relatively flat, while Solano is curving dramatically upward?  Someone should do a comparison chart showing all 9 Bay Area counties.  – R.S.]

Bay Area curve stays flattened, UCSF Emergency Room stays quiet

broke-ass stuart, by Alex Mak, March 30, 2020

As confirmed cases of COVID-19 surge in other cities in the US, the Bay Area is experiencing an incredibly low rate of new cases by comparison.  For example, as of March 30th, New York City has 33,768 confirmed COVID-19 cases while San Francisco has 340 confirmed cases.

USA COVID-19 confirmed cases heat map, March 30 2020: coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

We followed up with our UCSF Emergency Room contact; Dr. Nathan Teismann, to ask about current and new COVID-19 cases in his ER, as well as the state of his fellow staff at the hospital, and his colleagues in the greater Bay Area.  Dr. Teismann assured us that his ER was still relativity quiet over the weekend, seeing approximately half of the patients it usually sees on a normal weekend.  (these figures are consistent with those BAS reported 3.25.20)

Dr Teismann: “Over the weekend, we typically see around 200 patients per day in the ER, and this weekend we saw less than half of that volume, approximately 80-90 people we’re seen on Saturday, about half of those patients came in because of symptoms suspected of being COVID-19.”

When asked about the state of other hospitals in the Bay Area the Doctor replied, “My colleagues at Stanford, as well as at other facilities in San Francisco report much of the same conditions in their hospitals.  For now, the rate of new confirmed, infections showing up in Emergency rooms is not unmanageable.”

I asked the doctor if he believed that our early ‘shelter in place policy’ was having an effect, Dr. Teismann replied, “It seems very likely, that the ‘shelter in place’ policy has had a significant, positive effect on containing the spread of COVID-19 in the Bay Area.”

He followed with, “We are obviously not capturing the true prevalence of infected people in the Bay Area, because so many who may have been infected are staying home and therefore will not ever be ‘confirmed’ cases of COVID-19.”

Most of the confirmed cases across the world are confirmed because the patients had severe symptoms, that is why they went to the the hospital in the first place.  Since roughly 80% of people with COVID-19 have very mild symptoms, they end up staying home and letting the virus run its course, without adding to the statistics.

The true rate of infections throughout the Bay Area is obviously much higher than can be tested, but severe cases are still low, and as of yet, not growing exponentially like they are in New Orleans or New York.  Sheltering in place, seems to be bending the curve of infections in a major way.  Nationally of course, we are not fairing as well.  Dr.  Teismann was quick to warn me that the ‘top of the curve’ is yet to come.  He sent me the projected peak of coronavirus patients from the IHME at the University of Washington, which projects that nationally, April 15th will be the beginning of the peak of hospital bed capacity for COVID-19 patients in the USA.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, see all of there projections by visiting: http://covid19.healthdata.org/

What does that mean for you?  It means that social distancing and staying home is the right thing to do.  By staying home, and restricting your contact with others, also known as ‘social distancing’, is having an incredibly positive effect on ‘flattening the curve’.   By preventing the spread of COVID-19 you are quite literally saving lives in your community, and although we are far from the end of this pandemic, take heart that the sacrifices you are making by staying home and not becoming infected, are helping our medical professionals deal with this outbreak immensely.

The good news for San Franciscans
Businesses in SF started limiting service in the second week of March, and the official order to shutter all non-essential businesses in 6 Bay Area counties, and for citizens to shelter in place was given on March 16th, but by then the majority of workers and businesses had already stopped operations.  As of today, March 30th, it has been over 14 days since large crowds stopped congregating and the circulation of the virus has been greatly impeded.  Since most cases of COVID-19 last around 14 days, if we were going to see a massive surge of infections, the odds are we would have seen them by now in our Emergency rooms.  For now, this is good news, we have been incredibly fortunate that our government and business owners acted quickly and decisively to help slow the spread of the virus.

A message from your local healthcare providers 
Dr Teismann wanted to add that at USCF there has seen an incredible outpouring of kindness, well wishes and donations from the local community.  Everything from free meals from local restaurants delivered to the hospital staff, to artwork made by local elementary school students and hung in the hospital break room.  There have been phone calls and well-wishes from patients and neighbors to the hospital, and that positive outpouring has had a wonderful and positive effect on healthcare workers.

Stay safe, stay home San Francisco.  And if you would like to thank our medical professionals think about joining the sunset applause tonight, and every night, at 7pm.  Cheer and applaud from your window or balcony to thank those shouldering the burden during this pandemic!

We will keep publishing updates, and remember, we still have a long way to go.

* If you think you have been exposed to COVID‑19 and develop a fever and symptoms, such as cough or difficulty breathing, call your healthcare provider for medical advice.

Solano COVID-19 numbers spike on April 3, steep upward curve, 12 new cases on Friday April 3

UPDATE: See today’s latest information

Friday, April 3 – record of 12 new cases in a day:

Solano County Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Updates and Resources, April 1, 2020.  Check out basic information in this screenshot.  IMPORTANT: Note the County’s interactive page has more.  On the County website, you can click on “Number of cases” and then hover over the charts for detailed information.

Yesterday:

Summary:

Solano County reported 12 NEW POSITIVE CASES today – total is now 73No new deaths in Solano County today.

As of today, 51 positive cases were individuals between the ages of 19 and 64 (70% of the total), and 22 were 65 were older, (30% of the total).  33 of these are active cases (10 more than yesterday), and 22 of the total cases have resulted in hospitalizations (same as yesterday). The first reported case in Solano County was in Vacaville in February, which was also the first reported case in the United States of someone contracting the virus without having traveled abroad or knowingly come into contact with someone who tested positive.

Check out basic information in the screenshots here on Benicia Independent.  IMPORTANT: Note the County’s interactive page has more.  On the County website, you can click on “Number of cases” and then hover over the charts for detailed information.

Solano’s steep upward curve

The chart at right gives a clear picture of the infection’s trajectory in Solano County.  Our coronavirus curve is on a steep upward trajectory!

Everyone stay home and be safe!

Note:

Solano staff refuses to divulge WHERE in the County the positive cases reside.

COVID-19 – Open letter from U.S. public health leaders

An open letter from public health leaders around the nation:

BCHC, April 3, 2020

Dear Fellow Residents,

As public health leaders of the largest cities and counties in this country, it is our mission and duty to assure transparency during this time of great uncertainty.

Our country has not faced a public health threat like COVID-19 in over 100 years. With worldwide daily increases in both confirmed cases and deaths, it is clear to us as public health experts that this pandemic is gaining momentum and not soon subsiding. If we do not act quickly and collaboratively, many more lives will be lost across our country.

It does no one any good to soften the reality of what we are confronting. We must all prepare ourselves for loss—of normal routines and services, of economic security, and, tragically, of many, many lives. The only question now is how great the losses will be—an outcome that depends on our shared commitment to take individual responsibility and civic accountability for adhering to preventative measures, and, above all else, to stay home.

To save lives, we urgently need to slow the spread of the virus now. Many of our cities have put measures in place to sharply limit the spread of COVID-19. But no matter the extent of these measures, and even if you feel fine, we again implore you: Just Stay Home!

We know there are certain people, essential workers, who must work, and we thank them for their dedication. Your staying home helps keep them as safe as possible.

Staying home will protect both you and everyone you would otherwise come in contact with. If everyone stays home as much as possible, we will limit the spread of the virus, we will greatly reduce the number of people getting sick, and we will save many lives.

It is also critical to follow other recommended and mandatory measures to ease the burden on our health care system. If too many people rush to our emergency rooms for non-emergency care, our system will buckle under the weight of the demand.

Stay home for yourselves. Stay home for your family and loved ones. Stay home for your friends. Stay home for your community. Stay home for the health and prosperity of your country.

We understand that what we are asking of you is not easy. We know that for many of you, sounding this alarm may cause fear and anxiety. But, we must.

While we ask you to stay apart physically, we implore you to come together emotionally and spiritually. Together we are the best defense against this pandemic.

In gratitude,

Oxiris Barbot, MD
New York City
Sara Cody, MD
County of Santa Clara
Wilma Wooten, MD, MPH
San Diego County
Mysheika Roberts, MD, MPH
Columbus
Tomas Aragon, MD, DrPH
City and County of San Francisco
Dawn Emerick EdD, MPA
San Antonio Metro Health District
Patty Hayes, RN, MN
Seattle-King County
Rita Nieves, RN, MPH, LICSW
Boston
Rex Archer, MD, MPH
Kansas City
Denise Fair, MPH, FACHE
Detroit
Stephanie Hayden, LMSW
Austin
Vinny Taneja, MBBS, MPH
Tarrant County
Allison Arwady, MD, MPH
Chicago
Tom Farley, MD, MPH
Philadelphia
Phil Huang, MD, MPH
Dallas County
Stephen Williams, MEd, MPA
Houston
Rachael Banks, MPH
Multnomah County
Barbara Ferrer, PhD, MA
Los Angeles County
Fermin Leguen, MD
Southern Nevada Health District
Kimi Watkins-Tartt
Alameda County
Virginia Caine, MD
Marion County
Marcy Flanagan, DBA, MPH, MA
Maricopa County
Bob McDonald
Denver
Kelly Colopy, MPP
Long Beach
Merle Gordon, MPA
Cleveland
Gretchen Musicant, MPH, BSN
Minneapolis
Letitia Dzirasa, MD
Baltimore City
Gibbie Harris, MSPH, BSN, RN
Mecklenburg County
LaQuandra Nesbitt, MD, MPH
Washington, D.C.

Solano County stay-at-home extension order less restrictive than multi-county Bay Area extension order

By Roger Straw, April 3, 2020

On March 30, 2020, Solano County extended it’s COVID-19 shelter-at-home order through April 30.  The next day, on March 31, six of the San Francisco Bay Area’s nine counties joined in a similar order, extending the shelter-at-home order until May 3, and adding new requirements and restrictions.

Many thanks to Benicia resident Ralph Dennis, who responded to my request for a comparison of Solano County’s extension order with the multi-county Bay Area extension order.

Here is Ralph’s analysis:

The multi-county Bay Area shelter-in-place extension includes at least 7 new directives that are not specified in Solano County’s April 30th extension order.  The Solano order does not specifically state the following closures and restrictions:

    • playgrounds
    • dog parks
    • use of shared public recreational facilities
    • sports such as soccer
    • most residential/commercial construction
    • funerals limited to 10 people
    • food take out businesses must have social distancing protocols
    • essential businesses must scale down

The multi-county Bay Area extension also lists certain businesses considered essential that do not appear in the Solano County order:

    • service providers enabling residential transactions
    • funeral homes/cemeteries
    • moving companies
    • rental car companies
    • ride share services

While none of these “essential businesses” are explicitly named in the Solano County directive, they could be implied in paragraph 1.b.i., “All services needed to ensure the…health, safety and welfare of the public.”

For safe and healthy communities…