By Roger Straw, Thursday, March 5, 2021

COVID still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – get vaccinated, stay safe! (See Free Vaccine this weekend at Solano Fairgrounds)

Friday, March 5: 43 new Solano cases overnight,
2 new deaths.  Since February 2020: 30,305 cases, over 930 hospitalized, 167 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, March 4:Summary

• • CASES – Solano County reported 43 new cases overnight, a total of 30,305 cases since the outbreak started.
  • DEATHS – the County reported 2 new deaths today, both over 65 years of age.  A total of 167 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began.  In January-February, Solano recorded 66 coronavirus deaths, fully 40% of Solano’s COVID deaths to date!  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday surge and the Super Bowl.
  • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 4 fewer active cases today, a total of 276 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185, then in February down to 481 and TODAY we are at 276.  Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, nearly 300 of them, hopefully quarantined and staying away from grandma and grandpa!
  • HOSPITALIZATIONS – Today, Solano reported 2 more currently hospitalized cases, total of 30.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among the age groups, a total of 930 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.
  • ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity.  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has continued to fall in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  Back in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE today, the County reported 28% of ICU beds available today down from 38% yesterday. California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had 16 available ICU beds yesterday, March 4.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 72% of ventilators available, up from 65% yesterday, but still substantially lower than last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate and our Purple/Red Tier rating

Solano County is reporting that our positive test rate today is 6.2%, up slightly from yesterday’s 6.1%.  Our 14-day average positive test rate is 6.6% according to my own calculation. The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was at 2.1% today, same as yesterday.
>> Tier Rating:  Reports suggest that Solano may move down into the red tier as soon as next week.  Before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to  maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% AND an ADJUSTED case rate at or below 10 new cases per day per 100,000 residents for two consecutive weeks.  Solano’s 14-day average positive test rate meets that standard, at 6.6% by my calculation (and maybe even lower by some formula used by the state), and our adjusted case rate is also within the red tier range, at 7.7 per day over the last two weeks according to COVID.CA.GOV.  News this week is that the state will lower the adjusted case rate standard to 7% soon, which would certainly clinch Solano’s movement to the red tier.

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 7 new cases overnight, total of 3,538 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,305 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this very young age group, total of 19 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 19 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 27 new cases overnight, total of 16,734 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 258 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 7 new cases overnight, total of 6,328 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 30,305 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 249 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths reported in this age group today, a total of 27 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 2 new cases overnight, total of 3,694, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,305 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 404 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  2 new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 130 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 167 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 1 new case overnight, total of 857 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon remained steady today, total of 1,768 cases.
• Fairfield added 16 new cases overnight, total of 8,245 cases.
• Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 332 cases.
• Suisun City added 1 new case overnight, total of 2,054 cases.
• Vacaville added 9 new cases overnight, total of 7,954 cases.
• Vallejo added 15 new cases overnight, total of 9,003 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 1 new case overnight, total of 92 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.
>> Note a MAJOR CHANGE in the County’s reporting on race / ethnicity this week.  Prior this week, we were sure that the County data undercounts Latinx Americans, as there was a much larger group of “Multirace / Others” which likely was composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.  On Monday, the County’s Latinx numbers were virtually reversed with those of Multirace / Other, and the re-sorting by race and ethnicity continued until today.  (The new data is most likely a revision based on a new reading of the old data.)  Note that the remaining members of the Multirace/Other group are still undoubtedly primarily Latinx.  So this week’s jump in Latinx numbers are STILL likely undercounting the harsh effects of COVID among our Latinx community.  Worst case, if you were to assume ALL of the Multirace/Others are Latinx and add the stats for the two groups, you would see that this combined 33% of Solano’s population accounts for 45% of cases, 38% of hospitalizations and only 25% of deaths.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 14% of cases, 15% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 32% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases(unchanged), 8% of hospitalizations, and 7% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 36% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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