By Roger Straw, Monday, March 1, 2021

COVID spread has slowed some, but it’s still spreading and dangerous in Solano County – stay safe!

(Solano race/ethnicity data: see major update below.)

Monday, March 1: 91 new Solano cases over the weekend, no new deaths.  Since February 2020: 30,115 cases, over 890 hospitalized, 164 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, February 26:Summary

• • CASES – Solano County reported 91 new cases over the weekend, a total of 30,115 cases since the outbreak started.
  • DEATHS – the County reported no new deaths today .  A total of 164 Solano residents have died with COVID since the pandemic began.  42 COVID deaths were reported in Solano County during the month of February.  In January, Solano recorded a total of 24 coronavirus deaths.  40% of Solano’s 164 COVID deaths occurred in January-February!  While many other COVID stats are improving, the recent surge in deaths is no doubt the final sad result of our holiday and Super Bowl surge.
  • ACTIVE cases – Solano reported 152 fewer active cases today, a total of only 146 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases last October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658, in January 2,185 – and February’s average was down to 481, and TODAY we are at 146.  Much better – but note that’s still a bunch of contagious folks somewhere among us, hopefully quarantined and hopefully staying away from grandma and grandpa!
  • HOSPITALIZATIONS – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availability below.)  Today, Solano reported 2 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 35.  Among the age groups, the County reported no new hospitalizations today, a total of 892 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.  Accuracy of the County’s hospitalization numbers cannot be certain.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU BEDS – In late January, Solano hospitals expanded their ICU capacity [see BenIndy, Jan. 25]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has fallen in and out of the YELLOW DANGER ZONE, and came in at 29% available today down from 37% Friday. California’s COVID19-CA.GOV reports that Solano County had only 12 available ICU beds yesterday, February 28.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • VENTILATORS available – Today Solano hospitals have 64% of ventilators available, up from 54% Friday, but still down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate: 5.6% – still no clarification as to last week’s sudden drop by over half!

Solano County reported on Tuesday of last week that our 7-day average positive test rate was cut by more than half overnight, down to 5.9% from 12.4% on Monday.  Today the County remained in the same range, unchanged over the weekend, at 5.6%.  It seems totally unlikely for a 7-day average to drop so precipitously overnight.  I’ll let you know if I get an explanation.  Currently, Solano has come in under the State’s purple/red tier threshold of 8%.  Even so, DON’T EXPECT A QUICK MOVE DOWN TO THE RED TIER: before dropping to a lower tier, the State requires a county to  maintain a positive test rate at or below 8% measures AND a case rate at or below 31 new cases per day for two consecutive weeks.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was at 2.3% today, down from 2.7% Friday.

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,513 cases, representing 11.7% of the 30,115 total cases.  No new hospitalizations were reported today among this age group, total of 18 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 18 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 57 new cases over the weekend, total of 16,622 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.2% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 246 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 10 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 13 new cases over the weekend, total of 6,285 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 30,115 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 240 reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 26 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 11 new cases over the weekend, total of 3,684, representing 12.2% of Solano’s 30,115 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 388 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were  reported in this age group today.  A total of 128 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 164 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 4 new cases over the weekend, total of 855 cases since the outbreak began.
• Dixon added 3 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,758 cases.
• Fairfield added 24 new cases over the weekend, total of 8,191 cases.
• Rio Vista added 4 new cases over the weekend, total of 327 cases.
• Suisun City added 4 new cases over the weekend, total of 2,037 cases.
• Vacaville added 20 new cases over the weekend, total of 7,917 cases.
• Vallejo added 31 new cases over the weekend, total of 8,941 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 1 new case over the weekend, total of 89 cases.

Race / Ethnicity – MAJOR UPDATE TODAY

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note a MAJOR CHANGE in today’s reporting on race / ethnicity.  Prior to today, we were sure that this data undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a much larger group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.  Today’s Latinx numbers are virtually reversed with those of Multirace / Other – see below.  (Unless this is a data entry error, it is most likely a revision based on new data.  Watch to see if the numbers remain similar tomorrow.)  Note also that the remaining members of the Multirace/Other group are still undoubtedly primarily Latinx.  Today’s jump in Latinx numbers are STILL likely undercounting the harsh effects of COVID among our Latinx community.  Worst case, if you were to assume ALL of the Multirace/Others are Latinx and add the stats for the two groups, you would see that this combined 33% of Solano’s population accounts for 48% of cases, 39% of hospitalizations and 38% of deaths.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 13% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.  (No change.)
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases (previously 16%), 28% of hospitalizations (previously 21%), and 17% of deaths (previously 12%).
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 18% of cases (previously 33%), 11% of hospitalizations (previously 11%), and 11% of deaths (previously 11%).
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 28% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations (previously 31%) and 34% of deaths.

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More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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