Solano COVID OUTBREAK: positive test rate at shocking 11.4%, 234 new cases, 48 teens infected


[Source: Solano County Coronavirus Dashboard.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE.]

Monday, November 9: 234 (!) new cases over the weekend, no new deaths, 1 new hospitalization.  Since the outbreak began: 8,366 cases, 536 hospitalized, 79 deaths.Compare previous report, Friday, Nov. 6:Summary

  • Solano County reported 234 new cases over the weekend, the third largest weekend increase ever (264 on July 6, 245 on August 10) .  Total of 8,366 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – no new deaths reported today, total of 79 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported an increase of 30 additional active cases today, total of 577The County has added 184 active cases since last Wednesday!  Note that only 31 of these 577 individuals are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – Solano County reported the number of CURRENTLY hospitalized persons increased by 7 over the weekend, total of 31.  According to a November 7 email from Dr. Bela Matyas, the County occasionally updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively.  This accounts for the sudden 106 additions on October 29, a one-day increase of 25% in total hospitalizations.  These 106 had never been recorded as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  My take on this is that daily updates on current hospitalizations are nearly meaningless.  Nonetheless, I will continue to track both CURRENT hospitalizations and TOTAL hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  TOTAL hospitalized since the outbreak began supposedly increased by 1 today, total of 536 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  For manual calculation of total, see age group stats below.
  • ICU Beds – The County reported fewer ICU beds available today, down from 52% to 41%.  (Still no information about availability of ventilators.)

Positive Test Rate – a shocking 11.4%

Solano County reported that our 7-day average positive test rate rose today to it’s HIGHEST RATE EVER!  Our rate rose from 8.1% to an alarming 11.4% today.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on the rise lately, increasing today from 3.6% to 4.1%(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 48 (!) new cases over the weekend, total of 978 cases, representing a jump from 11.4% to 11.7% of the 8,366 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age groupBut cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 14 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 125 new cases over the weekend, total of 4,892 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents just under 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  1 new hospitalization reported today, total of 179.  No new deaths in this young group today, total of 6 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 44 new cases over the weekend, total of 1,620 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 8,366 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 151.  No new deaths in this age group today, a total of 15 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 17 new cases today, total of 872, representing 10.4% of Solano’s 8,366 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today, total of 192 since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this age group today, total of 58 of our elders who died of COVID.  This group accounts for 58 of the 79 total deaths, or 73%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 5 new cases today, total of 215 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 8 new cases today, total of 547 cases.
  • Fairfield added 72 new cases today, total of 2,646 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 64 cases.
  • Suisun City added 12 new cases today, total of 598 cases.
  • Vacaville added 56 new cases today, total of 1,572 cases.
  • Vallejo added 80 new cases today, total of 2,697 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 27 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 23% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 26% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 23% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 32% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.