Solano COVID report – possible error corrections, unlikely sudden drop in 7-day test rate

[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Tuesday, August 25: only 25 (!) new cases today, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 5,231 cases, 46 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday August 24:Summary

  • Solano County reported 25 new cases today, total of 5,231 cases since the outbreak started.  This is the lowest one-day increase since June 29.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 893 new cases, an average of 64 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 46 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 24 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 292.  Note that only 32 of these 292 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons were 4 fewer today, total of 32.  The total number hospitalized since the outbreak started remained steady, total of 278.  (Note that the County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but we can add the new hospitalization numbers in the Age Group report – see below.)  For a fifth week now, the County offers no information about availability of ICU beds and ventilators.
  • Testing – The County reports today that 866 more residents were tested today, new total of 70,851.  Solano has a long way to go: only 15.8% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate fell in a single day from 7.0% yesterday to only 5.7% todayI find this improbable.  7-day averages don’t normally jump like this – they are designed to “smooth out” the volatility of a daily data chart.  Someone at the County is likely correcting previous errors.  The County reported a 7-day test rate low of 4.1% on August 11, and the County’s rate peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Not really a smooth ride!  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The California 7-day test rate rose from 5.6% yesterday to 5.7% today(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity curve chart which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 11 new cases today, total of 569 cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group, a total of 5 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deathsIt is clear that our young people are catching the disease, with a recent increase in hospitalizations.  It seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth are 10.9% of the 5,231 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 20 new cases today, total of 3,177 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents nearly 61% of the 5,231 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 3 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 91 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths among this age group today, total of 4 deaths.  This age group is very active.  Some are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 2 fewer (!) cases today, no doubt an error correction, total of 1,004 cases.  This age group represents 20.3% of the 5,231 total cases2 fewer hospitalizations, also possibly a correction, total of 75 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  One more correction, on a day when no new deaths are reported overall, 1 new death in this age group today, a total of 7 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – More corrections: 4 fewer cases today, total of 480 cases, representing 9.2% of the 5,231 total cases. 1 fewer hospitalizations today, total of 107 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  In this older age group, just over 22% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This is a much higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  1 fewer deaths were reported in this age group today, total of 35 deaths.  This group accounts for 35 of the 46 deaths, or 76%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 2 new cases today, total of 125 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 2 new cases today, total of 361 cases.
  • Fairfield added 13 new cases today, total of 1,664.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 37 cases.
  • Suisun City added 2 new cases today, total of 372 cases.
  • Vacaville added 3 new cases today, total of 888 cases.
  • Vallejo added 5 new cases today, total of 1,767 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 17 cases.

Death rate by Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  Again today, I am featuring the tab that shows a calculated rate per 100,000 population by race/ethnicity.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that the Death Rate comparison here is imperfect, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” with a death rate higher than every other group.  Perhaps the best measure is to compare each group to the County’s overall death rate of 10.2/100K.  Even then, I am suspicious of the relatively low rate among Latinx Americans – many of them are no doubt included in the Multirace / Other grouping.  As of today:

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 11% of hospitalizations, but 17% of deaths.  The death rate for Solano Asian Americans is 11.0 per 100K.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, but 19% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.  The death rate for Black Americans is 15.8 per 100K.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 28% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 26% of deaths.  The death rate for Latinx Americans is 9.4 per 100K.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 21% of hospitalizations and 21% of deaths.  The death rate for Solano Whites is 5.1 per 100K.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at