Tag Archives: Coronavirus COVID 19

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

Solano COVID Report: 105 new cases overnight, major outbreak in Vallejo?

[NOTE: Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is corrected upward on a later date.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Tuesday, July 28: 105 new cases in just one day, no new deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 3,388 cases, 36 deaths.

Compare previous report, Monday July 27:Summary

  • Solano County reported 105 new cases today, total of 3,388 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 531 new cases, an average of 76 per day.
  • Deaths – no new deaths today, total of 36.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 24 more ACTIVE cases today, total of 223.  Last week Solano hit a record high of 440 active cases.  Note that only 50 of these 223 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • Hospitalizations – 5 more currently hospitalized persons today, total of 50.  23 more in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, 163.  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the hospitalization numbers in the Age Group chart.)  For the 2nd day in a row, the County offers no information about ICU beds and ventilators.  Apparently, the County does not collect or receive this data from our hospitals, but relies on data collected by the State.  You would think that when the County gathers data on Currently Hospitalized they could also easily collect the ICU bed and ventilator data.  Or… ??
  • Testing – 886 residents were tested since yesterday, total of 50,925.  But we still have a long way to go: only 11.4% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate at 5.8%, down 0.1% since yesterday.  (This number may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted
a record high of 9.3% last week – so if today’s number can be believed, and sustained, it is very good news!  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate is reported today at 7.5%.  Increasingly, health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  This information is immediately important, as test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  Positive test rates in California and other southwestern states have been on the rise.

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 13 new cases today, total of 345 cases, and no new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  A week ago, there were 282 cases among this age group – we’ve seen 63 new cases in just 7 days!  I continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to over 10% of the 3,388 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 60 new cases today, total of 2,059 cases.  This age group represents 61% of the 3,388 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 8 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 45 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 23 new cases today, total of 647 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 3,388 total cases.  The County reported 8 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 51 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 9 new cases today, total of 336 cases.  This age group represents just under 10% of the 3,388 total cases. 7 new hospitalizations, total of 64 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths, total of 29.  In this older age group, 19% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 29 of the 36 deaths, or 80%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 6 new cases yesterday and again today, total of 80 cases.  Benicia was extremely stable with only 2 new cases in the month of June.  Now Benicia has seen 18 new cases in 7 days.
  • Dixon added 7 new cases today, total of 179 cases.
  • Fairfield added 16 new cases today, total of 1,124.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 26 cases.
  • Suisun City added 10 new cases today, total of 248 cases.
  • Vacaville added 15 new cases today, total of 578 cases.
  • Vallejo added 58 new cases yesterday and 49 more today, total of 1,142 cases.  A big jump in cases in Vallejo – major outbreak?  Vallejo replaced Fairfield today with more positive cases than anywhere in Solano County.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas added 1 case today, total of 11 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 23% of hospitalizations, and 31% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 29% of cases, 32% of hospitalizations, and 25% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 12% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County CA

JULY 28 UPDATE of JULY 27 REPORT – Solano County reports another COVID death, 154 new cases

[NOTE: Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is corrected upward on a later date.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Monday, July 27: 154 new cases today,
1 new death.  Since the outbreak started: 3,283 cases, 36 deaths.

ABOVE: Portion of today’s Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard, 7/27/20 (Intentionally omitting potentially misleading epidemic curve charts.

Compare previous report, Friday July 24:Summary

  • Solano County reported 154 new cases today, total of 3,283 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 524 new cases, an average of 75 per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death today, total of 36.
  • Hospitalizations – (Incomplete data as of 7:30pm on 7/27 – see below for update as of 7/28 9:30am.)
  • Active cases – Solano reported 90 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 199.  Last week Solano hit a record high of 440 active cases.  Note that many of these infected people are not hospitalized, but out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • ICU beds Available and Ventilators Available – (Incomplete data as of 7:30pm on 7/27 – check back later.)
  • Testing – 1,871 residents were tested since Friday, total of 50,039.  But we still have a long way to go: only 11% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Hospital Impact – (State data not available)

Hospitalizations – 4 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 45.  7 more in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, 139, suggesting that more of us were discharged than admitted.  Today for the first time, the County offers no information about ICU beds and ventilators.  Apparently, the County does not collect or receive this data from our hospitals, but relies on data collected by the State.  You would think that the gathering of data on Currently Hospitalized could also easily collect the other data.  Or… maybe the County receives Current Hospitalized info from the State as well?  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the hospitalization numbers in the Age Group chart.)

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate at 5.9%, down 0.6% since Friday.  (This number may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a record high of 9.3% last week – so if today’s number can be believed, and sustained, it is very good news!  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate is reported today at 7.9%.  Increasingly, health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  This information is immediately important, as test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  Positive test rates in California and other southwestern states have been on the rise.

By Age Group

(Incomplete data at 7:30pm on 7/27.  UPDATED here at 10am on 7/28.)

  • Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 332 cases, and no new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  A week ago, there were 269 cases among this age group – we’ve seen 63 new cases in just 7 days!  I continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to over 10% of the 3,283 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 98 new cases today, total of 1,999 cases.  This age group represents 61% of the 3,283 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 4 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 37 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 26 new cases today, total of 624 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 3,283 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 43 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 20 new cases today, total of 327 cases.  This age group represents just under 10% of the 3,283 total cases. 3 new hospitalizations, total of 57 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death, total of 29.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 29 of the 36 deaths, or 80%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 6 new cases today, total of 74 cases.  Benicia was extremely stable with only 2 new cases for the entire month of June.  Now Benicia has seen 17 new cases in 7 days.
  • Dixon added 11 new cases today, total of 172 cases.
  • Fairfield added 46 new cases today, total of 1,108.  Fairfield has more positive cases than anywhere in Solano County.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 25 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 238 cases.
  • Vacaville added 27 new cases today, total of 563 cases.
  • Vallejo added 58 new cases today, total of 1,093 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady, total of 10 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

(Incomplete data at 7:30pm on 7/27.  UPDATED here at 10am on 7/28.)

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 25% of hospitalizations, and 31% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations, and 25% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 13% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

California, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Florida, New York

Coronavirus curve for California compared to New York, Florida – dramatic contrast

New York versus California: A tale of two pandemics

San Francisco Chronicle, by Erin Allday, July 27, 2020
People practice social distancing in white circles in Domino Park New York in May. Photo: Noam Galai / Getty Images

Their journeys began at about the same time, but California and New York immediately diverged down two very different paths during the coronavirus pandemic.

California started in January, with travelers from China carrying a new virus into the Bay Area. New York was probably only a few weeks behind, its virus arriving from Europe.

From there, California’s trajectory was a gentle upward bend in case counts, a long plateau, and then — the surge. New York’s was the classic curve: a sharp climb in cases followed by a long and bumpy descent.

Last week, six months into this pandemic, their paths crossed. California passed New York with the most coronavirus cases in the United States.

That grim convergence occurred as the nation reached its own dark milestone: 4 million reported cases. California, as of Sunday, has about 452,000 cases, to New York’s 412,000. Florida passed New York over the weekend and now has about 425,000 cases.

California and New York have gone through a role reversal of sorts, now that New York’s terrifying outbreak from the spring appears to be over, while California’s summer surge is still swelling. In March and April, New York consistently reported 10 times as many cases a day as California. By the end of June, California was outpacing New York by about the same rate. Last week, California reported about 65,000 new cases to New York’s 4,900.

But the numbers are more complicated than case counts. California has twice the population of New York, and its infection rate is half that of the Empire State — about 1,100 cases per 100,000 residents compared to 2,100 per 100,000. And New York has more than three times as many deaths — 32,600 to California’s 8,400, an indicator of how hard-hit the East Coast’s hospitals were early in the outbreak and how many more people died as a result.

The numbers are even more nuanced when California and New York are parsed into regions. The Bay Area, for example, has experienced a different epidemic, and is in far better shape, than Southern California. Some rural northern parts of the state have barely been touched by the virus. In New York, it has been Manhattan, along with the other four boroughs and their suburbs, that make up the vast majority of the cases statewide.

The two states ended up in roughly the same place — 400,000 known infections — at this moment in time. How they got there says as much about the nature of this new virus as it does about the culture of the East and West coast states and how they responded to the threat.

“The relationship between behavior and virus spread is mathematical, and we see it in those curves,” said Steven Goodman, a Stanford epidemiologist.

In the beginning. The initial trajectory of their curves are fairly well understood. California, the first state in the U.S. to enact widespread shelter-in-place orders in mid-March, shut down ahead of its outbreak. New York acted a little too late.

By the time New York shut down, a large portion of the population in New York City was already infected, public health experts now believe. In the two weeks after Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s statewide shelter-in-place order, confirmed cases doubled every three or four days, and the hospitals were overwhelmed. When the outbreak peaked in the second week of April, more than 10,000 cases were being reported a day and about 1,000 people were dying.

California successfully quashed its burgeoning outbreak. After a gentle uptick in March, daily cases seemed to settle at about 1,000 to 1,500 for a while. They climbed a bit more in May, hitting more like 2,000 cases a day, but still looked stable.

The hospitals were never overrun. The state generally saw fewer than 100 deaths a day. Residents celebrated their “California miracle.” Early, aggressive action had saved the state from the fate of New York and countries like Italy that experienced disastrous outbreaks.

“New York never had the chance to be data-driven and to build up their health care infrastructure and at least mitigate mortality,” said Shannon Bennett, chief of science with the California Academy of Sciences. “Even though we’ve flip-flopped in terms of the endpoint and daily new cases, it’s very different here. We were hearing in New York reports of bodies piling up, the social fabric was kind of crumbling. And I haven’t seen that here in California.

“We’re way better off than New York because we kind of saw it coming,” she added. “But wouldn’t it have been nice if seeing it coming could have prevented where we are now?”

New York: the bell curve. An advantage of having a sharp trajectory up is it’s fairly clear when the peak has arrived. In New York, it was in mid April, when the state reported 11,434 cases on what would have been Tax Day. California saw 1,197 cases that day.

From there, the cases fell far and fast in New York. The state reported a daily average of 7,600 cases in April, and 2,100 in May. The average dropped to about 750 cases a day in June and 700 this month.

New York’s curve, now six months into this pandemic, is an elegant bell with a well-defined peak and a long, steady tail.

There’s no one reason why New York’s case count fell so dramatically, but infectious disease experts point to a few most likely explanations. There were probably very few gaps in New York’s shutdown, which primarily affected New York City, the driver of infections. Residents were scared — a few weeks into the outbreak almost everyone knew someone who’d been infected — and therefore obediently quarantined.

Another possible explanation for the drop-off is immunity. By the end of May, one-fifth to one-quarter of people in New York City are believe to have been infected, according to antibody studies. That’s not enough for herd immunity, in which a large enough portion of the population is immune that a virus can no longer find traction to spread.

But if groups of people prone to infection had higher rates of immunity, that could have dampened the outbreak, infectious disease experts said.

“That may have produced some blunting,” said George Rutherford, an infectious disease expert with UCSF. “And they may have just learned their lessons better than the rest of the country.”

California: flattening the curve. California has never come close to that level of community disease. In the Bay Area, only about 1% of people were infected by the end of April, according to a recent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study. That was the result of flattening the curve.

The state averaged about 600 cases a day in March, then 1,400 in April and 2,000 in May. That’s an obvious increase with the benefit of hindsight, but at the time the numbers appeared flat, day after day. They were even steadier in the Bay Area. There is no doubt, public health experts said, that sheltering in place prevented the massive spike that New York had experienced.

But when it looked like the numbers had plateaued, and as the rest of the country began to reopen the economy, Californians grew complacent and impatient. People in many parts of the state begged for a loosening of stay-at-home restrictions. They also began to socialize again — visiting friends and family they hadn’t seen since March.

Cases began a notable uptick around Memorial Day, and then picked up speed. Californians thought they’d peaked in April, like New York — but it turned out the worst was still to come. The state reported an average of 4,000 cases a day in June — twice as many as May. And 8,500 a day so far in July.

“We never really allowed the epidemic to reach a peak,” said Lee Riley, an infectious disease expert at UC Berkeley. “When they started seeing a slight flattening of the curve and what they thought was the peak, that’s when they reopened. And then it kept going up. In New York, they waited well after the peak period of the epidemic to begin to reopen.”

But California’s curve is deceptive, infectious disease experts say, because it’s taken different shapes in different regions. Los Angeles’s trajectory, which has been driving the state curve in recent weeks, was on a slow but steady ascent before a sudden spike in June. In the Bay Area, the curve was notably flat for a long stretch in April and May before trending up.

New York’s pandemic may have been deadlier and more destructive, but it was also more easily contained because it was centralized, Rutherford said. “When you talk about New York State, what you’re really talking about is New York City and the suburbs,” he said. “That makes it simpler.”

California held down its initial outbreak with a blanket shutdown on all 58 counties, but that wasn’t going to be appropriate for the entire state in the long haul, public health experts said. The reopening was blundered, in part, because there was no one approach. “Here, it’s like herding cats,” said Riley.

Both states can learn lessons from the other, infectious disease experts said. California looked to New York’s spike in March and April and knew to bulk up its hospital capacity while its case counts stayed manageable. That knowledge is paying off now as hospitalizations climb to new records.

“Certainly we have learned from the New York situation how bad the pandemic can get and how rapidly it can get bad,” said Grant Colfax, director of San Francisco public health, in a news briefing last week.

And New York, perhaps, looked to California’s reopening and saw that a more conservative approach would be best.

“The lessons that Gov. Cuomo talks about are the lessons of Memorial Day weekend,” Rutherford said. “That’s when it got away. And you don’t want that to happen to New York.”

Forecasting this pandemic has been notoriously difficult, so no one can yet say where the New York and California trajectories will go from here. The hope, of course, is that New York stays its course, and California manages to tamp down its current surge and wrestle back some control of its outbreak.

These curves represent only the first chapter of what’s bound to be a very long story, infectious disease experts say. These months may end up being the worst of the United States’ epidemic, or simply the first rise in a dizzying roller coaster with many more swells to come.

“We happen to be crossing these milestones, but we’re still very much in the early phases of this pandemic,” said Nicholas Jewell, a biostatistician with UC Berkeley. “This is a long haul. Let’s try to be strategic, and learn what works and what doesn’t. We need to be in better shape to live with this virus while we wait for a vaccine.”

San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Mike Massa contributed to this report.  Erin Allday is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer.

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Solano County jails, Testing

First coronavirus case reported in Solano County jails – July 22, 2020

[For background, see Coronavirus: What is Going On in Solano County Jails?]

Solano County Jail Reports First COVID-19 Case – Questions Persist About Accuracy of Counts – Weekly Highlights – Breaking Down COVID-19 in CA Jails

Davis Vanguard, by Nikki Suzani, July 26, 2020

Highlights (July 20th – 25th)

  • Solano County Jail reported its first positive case of COVID-19 on Wednesday, July 22. The Solano County JDF has still not reported any positive cases.
  • 220 total tests were administered in the jail as of July 22 — an increase of about 34% from last Friday. Tests administered on Thursday and Friday have not yet been reported.
  • 143 total incarcerated persons have been booked into the jail, 53 less than last week. Of those 143 persons, 62 were booked after the first positive test was reported.

According to Solano Sheriff’s Office Public Information Officer, Le’Ron Cummings, the jail is following statewide precautions to prevent the spread and transmission of COVID-19.

“We have consulted with the County Public Health Officer, Risk Management, and are following their and any applicable CDC and CDPH guidelines for correctional facilities,” he wrote in an email to the Davis Vanguard.

Some of these actions, as listed on the CDC website, include – posting signs and communicating information verbally encouraging all persons in the facility to protect themselves against the virus, ensuring that there are sufficient medical supplies and testing on hand, providing a constant no-cost supply of soap, and limiting transfers of incarcerated/detained persons.

There are no guidelines that require incarcerated persons or staff to wear a mask, nor is it clear if the Solano County Jail has provided enough masks for all individuals in the jail.

Further, the jail is actively attempting to improve its transparency by establishing a database to help track the numbers better.

“Currently, my office is putting together a package of data specially for the Davis Vanguard’s requests”, Cummings wrote in an email to the Davis Vanguard. “What will take place is, every Monday, I will be provided [with] our most recent data on tests taken and positive cases among our inmates within all of our facilities. In turn, I will provide them to [the Vanguard] as soon as possible. This way, [the Vanguard] will have the most accurate and up-to-date numbers.”

This is a much-needed shift from the previous system where only a select few had access to the data about tests and positive cases. The database will be set up on Monday, July 27 after which the information about testing should be easily available to those interested.

The Solano County JDF has not announced any similar systems.

Source: Deputy Le’Ron Cummings, Public Information Officer – Solano County Sheriff’s Office and Shai Davis, Public Information Officer – Solano County Health Department.[/su_column][/su_row]