JULY 28 UPDATE of JULY 27 REPORT – Solano County reports another COVID death, 154 new cases

[NOTE: Solano County publishes a DAILY update, and displays past weeks and months in epidemic curve charts.  However, the curve charts do not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  This methodology is accurate in a way, but it misleads the public by consistently displaying a recent downward curve which is corrected upward on a later date.  For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.]

Monday, July 27: 154 new cases today,
1 new death.  Since the outbreak started: 3,283 cases, 36 deaths.

ABOVE: Portion of today’s Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard, 7/27/20 (Intentionally omitting potentially misleading epidemic curve charts.

Compare previous report, Friday July 24:Summary

  • Solano County reported 154 new cases today, total of 3,283 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 7 days, Solano reported 524 new cases, an average of 75 per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death today, total of 36.
  • Hospitalizations – (Incomplete data as of 7:30pm on 7/27 – see below for update as of 7/28 9:30am.)
  • Active cases – Solano reported 90 fewer ACTIVE cases today, total of 199.  Last week Solano hit a record high of 440 active cases.  Note that many of these infected people are not hospitalized, but out among us, hopefully quarantined.  One wonders… is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  (See SF Chronicle report on contact tracing in Bay Area – “Solano County did not respond”.)
  • ICU beds Available and Ventilators Available(Incomplete data as of 7:30pm on 7/27 – check back later.)
  • Testing 1,871 residents were tested since Friday, total of 50,039.  But we still have a long way to go: only 11% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Hospital Impact – (State data not available)

Hospitalizations – 4 fewer currently hospitalized persons today, total of 45.  7 more in the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started, 139, suggesting that more of us were discharged than admitted.  Today for the first time, the County offers no information about ICU beds and ventilators.  Apparently, the County does not collect or receive this data from our hospitals, but relies on data collected by the State.  You would think that the gathering of data on Currently Hospitalized could also easily collect the other data.  Or… maybe the County receives Current Hospitalized info from the State as well?  (The County no longer reports Total Hospitalized, but I have added the hospitalization numbers in the Age Group chart.)

Percent Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today’s 7-day percent positive test rate at 5.9%, down 0.6% since Friday.  (This number may be misleading – see NOTE at top of this page.)  The County posted a record high of 9.3% last week – so if today’s number can be believed, and sustained, it is very good news!  CONTEXT: California’s 7-day positivity rate is reported today at 7.9%.  Increasingly, health officials and news reports are focusing on percent positive test rates.  This information is immediately important, as test positivity is one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  Positive test rates in California and other southwestern states have been on the rise.

By Age Group

(Incomplete data at 7:30pm on 7/27.  UPDATED here at 10am on 7/28.)

  • Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 332 cases, and no new hospitalizations, only 2 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  A week ago, there were 269 cases among this age group – we’ve seen 63 new cases in just 7 days!  I continue to raise an alarm for Solano’s youth.  Cases among Solano youth have increased in recent weeks to over 10% of the 3,283 total confirmed cases.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 98 new cases today, total of 1,999 cases.  This age group represents 61% of the 3,283 total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported 4 new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 37 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 3 deaths.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 26 new cases today, total of 624 cases.  This age group represents over 19% of the 3,283 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 43 hospitalized since the outbreak began, and no new deaths among this age group, total of 4 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – 20 new cases today, total of 327 cases.  This age group represents just under 10% of the 3,283 total cases. 3 new hospitalizations, total of 57 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death, total of 29.  In this older age group, over 17% of cases required hospitalization at one time, a substantially higher percentage than in the lower age groups.  This group accounts for 29 of the 36 deaths, or 80%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 6 new cases today, total of 74 cases.  Benicia was extremely stable with only 2 new cases for the entire month of June.  Now Benicia has seen 17 new cases in 7 days.
  • Dixon added 11 new cases today, total of 172 cases.
  • Fairfield added 46 new cases today, total of 1,108.  Fairfield has more positive cases than anywhere in Solano County.
  • Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 25 cases.
  • Suisun City added 6 new cases today, total of 238 cases.
  • Vacaville added 27 new cases today, total of 563 cases.
  • Vallejo added 58 new cases today, total of 1,093 cases.
  • Unincorporated areas – Unincorporated areas remained steady, total of 10 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

(Incomplete data at 7:30pm on 7/27.  UPDATED here at 10am on 7/28.)

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  There are also tabs showing a calculated rate per 100,000 by race/ethnicity for each of these boxes.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  As of today:

  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 25% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 13% of cases, but 25% of hospitalizations, and 31% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 30% of cases, 28% of hospitalizations, and 25% of deaths.
  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases and 13% of hospitalizations, but 16% of deaths.

Much more…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.