By Roger Straw, January 28, 2021

Special today: January case numbers and daily averages BY CITY (below).  Stay home whenever possible – this is not over!

Thursday, January 28: 169 new Solano cases overnight, and again, 1 new death.  Since Feb: 27,486 cases, over 820 hospitalized, 122 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Jan. 27:Summary

• • Solano County reported 169 new cases overnight, total of 27,486 cases since the outbreak started.  In the first 28 days of January, Solano has added 8,275 new cases, for an AVERAGE of 296 new cases per day.
  • Deaths – 1 new death reported today, someone over 65 years of age, a total of 122 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.  There have been 17 COVID-related deaths in Solano County over the last 9 days, 2 aged 18-49 years, 15 others over 65 years of age.  While many other COVID stats are improving, these deaths are the final sad result of our holiday surge.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 33 more active cases today, a total of 1,505 active cases.  Compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650, in December 1,658 – and TODAY we are at 1,505.  Better, but still a LOT!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Or do we just sit back and wait for a voluntary 10 day quarantine to expire.  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – (See expanding ICU capacity and ventilator availablity below.)  Today, Solano reported 1 fewer currently hospitalized cases, total of 137.  No change today in the number of hospitalizations among age groups.  (The County posted its “occasional” large group of updated numbers on hospitalizations among the age groups yesterday, adding 5 in the 50-64 year age group and 12 more in the 65+ age group, for a total of 820 hospitalized in all age groups since the pandemic began.) Even then, accuracy cannot be certain – note…  >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday, 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano hospitals recently expanded their ICU capacity [see Benicia Independent, “Why the sudden improvement in our ICU bed numbers?“]  Even with the expanded ICU capacity, Solano County has dropped into the YELLOW DANGER ZONE in ICU beds available today, but up from 10% yesterday, to 17% today.  The State’s COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had ONLY 6 AVAILABLE ICU BEDS as of yesterday, January 27.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • Ventilators available – This week, for the first time since July 24 of last year, Solano County is reporting the percentage of ventilators available.  Today Solano hospitals have 41% of ventilators available, up from 26% yesterday but down substantially from last summer’s reports of 82-94% available.

Positive Test Rate – SOLANO TEST RATE REMAINS ALARMINGLY HIGH, 16.9% – VIRUS STILL SPREADING, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test at an alarming rate of 16.9%, down a bit from yesterday’s 17.3%, but still more than 2 times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  COMPARE: The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down slightly from yesterday’s 7.7% to 7.5% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group

• Youth 17 and under – 18 new cases overnight, total of 3,192 cases, representing 11.6% of the 27,486 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 97 new cases overnight, total of 15,183 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 55.3% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 241 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 9 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 38 new cases overnight, total of 5,732 cases.  This age group represents 20.9% of the 27,486 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 222 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 18 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 16 new cases overnight, total of 3,368, representing a high of 12.3% of Solano’s 27,486 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today, a total of 340 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death was reported in this age group today.  A total of 95 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 78% of Solano’s 122 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 5 new cases overnight, total of 774 cases since the outbreak began.  266 new cases in January, avg. of 9.5 per day.
• Dixon added 5 new cases overnight, total of 1,638 cases.  417 new cases in January, avg. of 15 per day.
• Fairfield added 38 new cases overnight, total of 7,590 cases.  2,147 new cases in January, avg. of 77 per day.
• Rio Vista added 1 new cases today, total of 262 cases.  97 new cases in January, avg. of 3 per day.
• Suisun City added 14 new cases overnight, total of 1,879 cases.  533 new cases in January, avg. of 19 per day.
• Vacaville added 33 new cases overnight, total of 7,223 cases.  2,369 new cases in January, avg. of 85 per day.
• Vallejo added 73 new cases overnight, total of 8034 cases.  2,421 new cases in January, avg. of 86 per day.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 86 cases.  25 new cases in January, avg. of nearly 1 per day.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 12% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 17% of hospitalizations, and 22% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 13% of cases, 22% of hospitalizations, and 15% of deaths.
• Multi-race / Others are 7% of Solano’s population, but account for 35% of cases, 18% of hospitalizations, and 12% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations and 34% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

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