Solano residents facing an explosive Holiday Surge upon Holiday Surge

By Roger Straw, January 4, 2021  [Sources: see below.]

Monday, January 4: 1,742 new Solano cases over the 4-day holiday break, 2 new deaths.  Since last Feb: 20,953 cases, over 750 hospitalized, 100 deaths.Compare previous report, Thursday, Dec. 31:Summary

• • Solano County reported 1,742 new cases over the 4-day holiday weekend.  In just the last 14 days, Solano has seen an increase of 4,729 new cases.  We’re averaging 338 (!) new cases every day!  Total of 20,953 cases since the outbreak started.
    >>Vacaville has added 1,630 new cases in the last 2 weeks, over 115 per day! (Compare Vacaville in November: total of 761 cases over 30 days, averaging 26 per day.)  Something is going on in Vacaville!
  • Deaths – 2 new deaths reported today, both over 65 years of age, a total of 100 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 571 fewer active cases today for a total of 1,639 active cases.  But compare: Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 1,639!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – Today, Solano reported 26 more CURRENTLY hospitalized persons, total of 164.  Among the age groups, the County reported only 4 new hospitalizations, for a total of 757 persons hospitalized since the outbreak began.  But…
    >>In a December 31 Fairfield Daily Republic article, reporter Todd Hanson wrote, “Since the start of the pandemic, and as of Wednesday [Dec. 30], 9,486 residents have been hospitalized.”  This startling number is far and away above the number of residents hospitalized as indicated in the count of age group hospitalizations, and not available anywhere on the County’s COVID-19 dashboard.  Asked about his source, Hanson replied that Solano Public Health “had to do a little research on my behalf.”  It would be good if the County could add Total Hospitalized to its daily Dashboard update.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County reported fewer ICU beds available today, down from 21% to 17% available, and in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano County had only 8 available ICU beds as of yesterday, January 3.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)

Positive Test Rate – ALL TIME ALARMINGLY HIGH SOLANO TEST RATE OF 30.9% – VIRUS SPREADING LIKE WILDFIRE, STAY HOME!

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test rate today at a Solano record of 30.9%, dramatically up from the last reported rate of 18.5%, and nearly 4 times the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate was down slightly from yesterday’s 11.8% to 11.6% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – Another holiday surge on top of the Thanksgiving surge – in all age groups

• Youth 17 and under – 183 (!) new cases today, total of 2,316 cases, representing 11.1% of the 20,953 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 965 (!) new cases today, total of 11,855 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 56.6% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 238 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 7 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 373 (!) new cases today, total of 4,362 cases.  This age group represents 20.8% of the 20,953 total cases.  The County reported 2 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 208 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths were reported in this age group today, a total of 17 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 221 (!) new cases today, total of 2,411, representing 11.5% of Solano’s 20,953 total cases.  The County reported 2 new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 294 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  2 new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 76 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 100 total deaths.
• Testing – Solano reports today that a 171,224 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began, and that a total of 222,814 tests have been performed on Solano residents. Thus, just over 50,000 tests have been administered on residents who had been previously tested. 38.2% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

City Data

• Benicia added 57 (!) new cases today, total of 565 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 90 (!) new cases today, total of 1311 cases.
• Fairfield added 460 (!) new cases today, total of 5,903 cases.
• Rio Vista added 29 (!) new cases today, total of 194 cases.
• Suisun City added 115 (!) new cases today, total of 1,461 cases.
• Vacaville added 508 (!!) new cases today, total of 5,362 cases.
• Vallejo added 479 (!) new cases today, total of 6,092 cases.
• Unincorporated areas added 4 new cases today, total of 65 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 15% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations, and 18% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 34% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source

By Roger Straw, December 29, 2020  [Sources: see below.]

Tuesday, December 29: 208 new cases overnight,
3 new deaths.  Since Feb: 18,726 cases, more than 740 hospitalized, 98 deaths.Compare previous report, Monday, Dec. 28:Summary

• • Solano County reported 208 new cases overnight.  In just the last 14 days, Solano has seen an increase of 4,819 new cases.  We’re averaging 344 (!) new cases every day! (source: covid19.ca.gov)  Total of 18,726 cases since the outbreak started.
  • Deaths – 3 new deaths reported today, one individual aged 50-64 and 2 persons over 65 years of age, a total of 98 Solano deaths since the pandemic began.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 119 fewer active cases today for a total of 2,008 active cases.  Solano’s average number of Active Cases during October was 284, average in November was 650 – and TODAY we are at 2,008!  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – CAUTION ON SOLANO HEALTH DEPARTMENT REPORTING: According to Solano Health Officer Dr. Bela Matyas, the County “occasionally” updates Age Group hospitalizations retroactively, adding substantial numbers.  Thus, many hospitalizations are never reported as CURRENTLY hospitalized.  Today, Solano reported 1 fewer CURRENTLY hospitalized persons, total of 129.  Among the age groups, the County reported no change in hospitalization numbers, for a total of 744 persons hospitalized since the outbreak began.  [For the numbers used in my manual calculation of total hospitalizations, see age group stats below.  For COVID19-CA.GOV numbers, see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County.]
  • ICU Beds – Solano County reported an increase in ICU beds available today, rising from only 11% available to 20% available today, still in the YELLOW DANGER ZONE.  COVID19-CA.GOV reported today that Solano hospitals had 11 available ICU beds as of yesterday, December 28.  (For COVID19-CA.GOV info see BenIndy page, COVID-19 Hospitalizations Daily Update for Solano County, and for REGIONAL data see COVID-19 ICU Bed Availability by REGION.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that a total of 166,165 unduplicated residents have now been tested for COVID-19 since the outbreak began.  37.1% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate – NEARLY 1 IN 5 ARE TESTING POSITIVE – VIRUS SPREADING IN SOLANO LIKE WILDFIRE

Solano County reported our 7-day average positive test rate today at 18.2%, down from yesterday’s 22.9%, but still far and away over the State’s purple tier threshold of 8%.  Average percent positive test rates are among the best metrics for measuring community spread of the virus.  The much lower and more stable California 7-day average test rate has also been on an alarming rise lately, up from yesterday’s 11.6% to 12.0% today.  (Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve therefore also lags behind due to unknown recent test results.) 

By Age Group – Continuing the post-Thanksgiving surge in all age groups

• Youth 17 and under – 14 new cases today, total of 2,091 cases, representing 11.2% of the 18,726 total cases.  No new hospitalizations reported today among this age group, total of 17 since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deaths have ever been reported in Solano County in this age group.  But cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has plateaued at over 11% since September 30.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11.x% may seem low.  The significance is this: youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact at least 17 of our youth have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.
• Persons 18-49 years of age – 104 new cases today, total of 10,662 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents nearly 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 236 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  Solano recorded no new deaths in this young group today, total of 7 deaths.  Some in this group are surely at high risk, as many are providing essential services among us, and some may be ignoring public health orders.  I expect this group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
• Persons 50-64 years of age – 56 new cases today, total of 3,865 cases.  This age group represents just over 20% of the 18,726 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 204 are reported to have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  1 new death was reported in this age group today, a total of 17 deaths.
• Persons 65 years or older – 34 new cases today, total of 2,099, representing 10.9% of Solano’s 18,726 total cases.  The County reported no new hospitalizations among persons in this age group today.  A total of 287 have been hospitalized since the outbreak began.  2 new deaths were reported in this age group today.  A total of 74 of our elders have died of COVID, accounting for 76% of Solano’s 98 total deaths.

City Data

• Benicia added 5 new cases today, total of 493 cases since the outbreak began. 
• Dixon added 7 new cases today, total of 1207 cases.
• Fairfield added 37 new cases today, total of 5,322 cases.
• Rio Vista remained steady today, total of 156 cases.
• Suisun City added 9 new cases today, total of 1,304 cases.
• Vacaville added 109 (!) new cases today, total of 4,697 cases.  Something is happening in Vacaville – stay tuned!
• Vallejo added 41 new cases today, total of 5,486 cases.
• Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 61 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinx members of our communities.

• Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 10% of cases, 12% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 16% of hospitalizations, and 20% of deaths.
• Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 17% of cases, 24% of hospitalizations, and 17% of deaths.
• White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 29% of cases, 29% of hospitalizations and 33% of deaths.

More…

The County’s Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight significant portions.  For more, check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Source