Category Archives: Centers for Disease Control (CDC)

Benicia CA, Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Coronavirus, Covid 19, Delta variant, Hospitalizations, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Department, Vaccine

Solano County reports 4 COVID deaths, 677 new infections, soaring community transmission levels

By Roger Straw, Monday, August 30, 2021

Monday, August 30: Solano reports 677 new infections, 4 deaths, soaring community transmission levels.

Solano County COVID dashboard SUMMARY:
[Sources: see below.]

DEATHS: 4 new deaths were reported today, two of us age 50-64 and two 65+.  Today’s deaths included an Asian person, a Latinx person and two White persons.  Total Solano deaths over the course of the pandemic rose to 270.

CASES: The County reported  a whopping 677 new COVID cases over the weekend, 325 per day, our highest since January 25.

Solano has seen 1,475 new cases over the last 7 days, well over the CDC’s level for “High Community Transmission”.  Based on Solano County population of 449,432, the CDC would rate us in “Substantial” transmission with 225 cases over the last 7 days.  Double that, or 450 cases in the last 7 days would rank us in “High” transmission.  Today, Solano County’s 1,475 cases is nearly triple the CDC’s High rate of transmission!

Case numbers also show a startling increase in the percentage of new cases among young persons age 0-17, increasing another tenth of a percent to a new high of 13.5% of total cases, the third consecutive 0.1% jump.  That doesn’t sound like much until you consider that the percentage of youth cases increased very, very slowly over the course of the pandemic, starting below 6%, and only gradually reaching 12% in mid-April of 2021.  The percent of youth has jumped a full half-percent in the last 2 weeks.

Cases-Per-Day Trend (All Age Groups): We are experiencing a dramatic “summer surge” now.  Cases-per-day were trending downward in the Spring, but rose rapidly in July and are skyrocketing here in August:

ACTIVE CASES: Solano’s 1,097 ACTIVE cases is up slightly from Friday’s 1,089, alarmingly up from 212 on July 2, and in the range we experienced during the deadly surge last winter.

POSITIVE TEST RATE:  Our 7-day average percent positivity rate was 14.5% today, down from 16% Friday, but still nearly twice the purple tier margin, 4 times today’s California rate of 3.6% and nearly 1.5 times today’s U.S. rate of 10.6%. [Source: Johns Hopkins]  WARNING: The Delta Variant is here in Solano County and spreading fast.  Time to mask up again – watch out and take care!  
Hospitalizations

CURRENT hospitalizations were up slightly today from 142 to 143 persons, and still higher than any time since the winter surge.

ICU Bed Availability was still shockingly low today at only 13% of ICU beds available, in the yellow danger zone and nearing red.  This was up only slightly from Friday’s 11%.  We’ve not seen rates this low since January 2021.

Ventilator Availability was up slightly today from 57% to 60%, and also continuing in the range we saw last winter.

TOTAL Hospitalized – The County’s Monday-Friday dashboard shows an intake/discharge total of CURRENTLY hospitalized cases (above), but never reports on the TOTAL hospitalized over the course of the pandemic.  That total must be independently discovered in the County’s occasional update of the Hospitalizations by Age Group chart.  The County did not update its Hospitalizations charts today.  The Age Group chart shows a total of 2,086 persons hospitalized since the beginning of the outbreak.  The Hospitalizations by Race / Ethnicity chart was also not updated today, and shows  a total of 1,954 persons hospitalized since the beginning of the outbreak.  Interestingly, the total doesn’t square with the total by age groups.

Face Coverings… Good News in Benicia

GOOD NEWS!  Last week, Benicia City Council passed a citywide indoors mask mandate. The Council heard opposition from Dr. Bela Matyas, and support from Dr. Bonnie Hamilton.  The public spoke almost entirely in favor of a mandate and included a number of medical professionals.  Councilmembers debated on various finer points, and passed the resolution on a 5-0 vote. The mandate went into effect immediately. Everyone 4 years old and up must now wear a mask indoors in public places, even those of us who are vaccinated.  The mask resolution, press release, and a flyer now appear on the City website.  For those interested in reviewing the Benicia City Council procedings of August 24, the video is posted on the City website, at benicia.granicus.com/player/clip/3528?view_id=1…. The mask mandate discussion begins around minute 23.

Benicia is the first Solano city to take action despite the County’s lack of strong guidance on masks.  In the Bay Area, Solano County REMAINS the only holdout against even RECOMMENDING masks in public indoors spaces.  Hopefully, Dr. Matyas will learn from Benicia, and make the necessary difficult decisions, but all reports are that he intends not to do so. 

Please mask indoors in public places now, and maybe even indoors in crowded gatherings at home with vaccinated family and friends!  PLEASE talk to anyone you know who isn’t vaccinated.  This thing ain’t over yet!

Cases by City on Monday, August 30:
  • Benicia added 36 new cases today, a total of 1,276 cases since the outbreak began, 4.6% of its population of 27,570.  Benicia is far and above over the CDC’s HIGH community transmission level with 60 (!) new cases in the last 7 days.  (14 cases over the last 7 days = “Substantial” and 28 cases = “High”.)
  • Dixon added 39 new cases today, total of 2,262 cases, 11.4% of its population of 19,794.
  • Fairfield added 166 new cases today, total of 10,956 cases, 9.4% of its population of 117,149.
  • Rio Vista added 9 new cases today, total of 505 cases, 5.4% of its population of 9,416.
  • Suisun City added 55 new cases today, total of 2,870 cases, 9.7% of its population of 29,447.
  • Vacaville added 185 new cases today, a total of 10,570 cases, 10.7% its of population of 98,807.
  • Vallejo added 182 new cases today, a total of 11,910 cases, 10.0% of its population of 119,544.
  • Unincorporated added 5 new case today, a total of 128 cases (population figures not available).

Continue reading Solano County reports 4 COVID deaths, 677 new infections, soaring community transmission levels →

Benicia CA, Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Coronavirus, Covid 19, Delta variant, Hospitalizations, Solano County CA, Solano County Health Department, Vaccine

Solano County reports nearly 500 new infections, over 1,000 active cases, fewer ICU beds available

By Roger Straw, Friday, August 27, 2021

Friday, August 27: Solano reports 471 (!) new infections today, 1,089 active cases, ICU beds becoming scarce.  Benicia indoors masking ordinance is ordered.

Solano County COVID dashboard SUMMARY:
[Sources: see below.]

DEATHS: No new deaths were reported today.  Total Solano deaths over the course of the pandemic remains at 266.

CASES: The County reported  a whopping 471 new COVID over the last 2 days, 236 per day, our highest since February 1. Case numbers show a startling increase in the PERCENTAGE OF YOUNG PERSONS age 0-17, increasing another tenth of a percent to a new high of 13.4% of total cases, the second such jump this week.  The percentage of youth cases increased very slowly over the course of the pandemic, starting below 6%, and very gradually reaching 12% in mid-April of 2021.  CASES-PER DAY TREND (All Age Groups): We are experiencing a dramatic “summer surge” now.  Cases-per-day were trending downward in the Spring, but rose rapidly in July and are skyrocketing here in August:

ACTIVE CASES: Solano’s 1,089 ACTIVE cases is up from Wednesday’s 904, and alarmingly up from 212 on July 2, and in the range we experienced during the horrific surge last winter.

POSITIVE TEST RATE:  Our 7-day average percent positivity rate was 16.0% today, down a bit from 17.4% Wednesday, but twice the purple tier margin, still almost 4 times today’s California rate of 4.2% and nearly 1.5 times today’s U.S. rate of 11.1%. [Source: Johns Hopkins]  WARNING: The Delta Variant is here in Solano County and spreading fast.  Time to mask up again – watch out and take care!  
Hospitalizations

CURRENT hospitalizations were down slightly today from 147 to 142 persons, but still higher than any time since the winter surge.

ICU Bed Availability was down to a shocking low today of only 11% of ICU beds available today, in the yellow danger zone and nearing red.  We’ve not seen rates this low since January 2021.

Ventilator Availability was down slightly today from 58% to 57%, and also continuing in the range we saw last winter.

TOTAL Hospitalized – The County’s Monday-Friday dashboard shows an intake/discharge total of CURRENTLY hospitalized cases (above), but never reports on the TOTAL hospitalized over the course of the pandemic.  That total must be independently discovered in the County’s occasional update of the Hospitalizations by Age Group chart.  The County updated its Hospitalizations charts today.  The Age Group chart shows 2 new hospitalizations, 1 age 50-64, and 1 over 65 – a total of 2,086 persons hospitalized since the beginning of the outbreak.

The Hospitalizations by Race / Ethnicity chart also shows  2 new hospitalizations today, 1 Asian, and 1 White – a total of 1,954 persons hospitalized since the beginning of the outbreak.  Interestingly, the total doesn’t square with the total by age groups.

Face Coverings… Good News in Benicia

GOOD NEWS!  Last week, Benicia City Council passed a citywide indoors mask mandate. The Council heard opposition from Dr. Bela Matyas, and support from Dr. Bonnie Hamilton.  The public spoke almost entirely in favor of a mandate and included a number of medical professionals.  Councilmembers debated on various finer points, and passed the resolution on a 5-0 vote. The mandate went into effect immediately. Everyone 4 years old and up must now wear a mask indoors in public places, even those of us who are vaccinated.  The mask resolution, a press release, and a flyer now appears on the City website.  For those interested in viewing last night’s procedings, the video is posted on the City website, at benicia.granicus.com/player/clip/3528?view_id=1…. The mask mandate discussion begins around minute 23.

Benicia is the first Solano city to take action despite the County’s lack of strong guidance on masks.  In the Bay Area, Solano County REMAINS the only holdout against even RECOMMENDING masks in public indoors spaces.  Hopefully, Dr. Matyas will learn from Benicia, and make the necessary difficult decisions, but all reports are that he intends not to do so. 

Please mask indoors in public now, and maybe even indoors with vaccinated family and friends!  And PLEASE talk to anyone you know who isn’t vaccinated.  This thing ain’t over yet!

Cases by City on Friday, August 27:
  • Benicia added 16 new cases today, a total of 1,240 cases since the outbreak began, 4.5% of its population of 27,570.  Benicia remains in the CDC’s HIGH transmission level with 35 new cases in the last 7 days.
  • Dixon added 29 new cases today, total of 2,223 cases, 11.2% of its population of 19,794.
  • Fairfield added 107 new cases today, total of 10,790 cases, 9.2% of its population of 117,149.
  • Rio Vista added 8 new cases today, total of 496 cases, 5.3% of its population of 9,416.
  • Suisun City added 39 new cases today, total of 2,815 cases, 9.5% of its population of 29,447.
  • Vacaville added 136 new cases today, a total of 10,385 cases, 10.5% its of population of 98,807.
  • Vallejo added 135 new cases today, a total of 11,728 cases, 9.8% of its population of 119,544.
  • Unincorporated added 1 new case today, a total of 123 cases (population figures not available).

Continue reading Solano County reports nearly 500 new infections, over 1,000 active cases, fewer ICU beds available →

Benicia City Council, Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Coronavirus, Covid 19, Mandatory face coverings, Tom Campbell

Benicia will review mask mandate in 6 weeks – here’s how

Benicia COVID cases have risen to the CDC’s most dangerous “High Transmission level” since August 11 – well over the CDC’s “Substantial Transmission level.”

By Roger Straw, August 27, 2021  [UPDATED – note new information about the requirement of 30 days below substantial transmission level.]

Benicia’s new mask mandate refers to the CDC transmission levels as its standard for reviewing whether to continue the mask mandate.

The mandate will remain in place for 6 weeks, after which Council will review the order (on October 5).  The order will “remain in effect until the City is not in a substantial or high transmission of COVID 19 as defined by the CDC for a thirty-day period.” (From Resolution 21-88, adopted August 24)

The CDC’s formula for calculating level of transmission looks complicated, but it’s actually rather simple.  First, here is the CDC’s complicated presentation.  I’ll simplify after that….

TABLE. CDC core indicators of and thresholds for community transmission levels of SARS-CoV-2
Indicator Transmission level
Low Moderate Substantial High
New cases per 100,000 persons in the past 7 days* 0–9.99 10.00–49.99 50.00–99.99 ≥100.00
Percentage of positive nucleic acid amplification tests in the past 7 days† <5.00 5.00–7.99 8.00–9.99 ≥10.00

* Number of new cases in the county (or other administrative level) in the past 7 days divided by the population in the county (or other administrative level) multiplied by 100,000.
† Number of positive tests in the county (or other administrative level) during the past 7 days divided by the total number of tests performed in the county (or other administrative level) during the past 7 days. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/resources/calculating-percent-positivity.html

In the Benicia City Council discussions, only new cases per 100,000 was mentioned as a factor for review (unless I missed something).  Councilmember Tom Campbell did the math on the spot, and indicated that Benicia’s number would be 13 cases (later amended to 14) over the last 7 days.

Simply put, >>based on our population, when the County reports 14 or more new Benicia cases over the last 7 days, the CDC classifies us as having a level of “substantial transmission.”  If we see 28 cases over the last 7 days we are in an area of “high transmission.”  The mask mandate will continue until we have been below 14 new cases per week for at least 30 days.

The bad news… Here is a chart showing Benicia’s 7-day case levels per 100K over the past several weeks.  Clearly, we have been in Substantial or High since mid-July.

Solano County COVID-19 Dashboard – ARCHIVE
https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67 
Date Total Confirmed Cases, Solano County Δ Total Confirmed Cases, Benicia Δ Cases previous 7 days per 100K  (CDC Substantial: Benicia 14+)
Wednesday, June 16, 2021 33,651 15 1,010 3 8
Thursday, June 17, 2021 33,673 22 1,012 2 9
Friday, June 18, 2021 33,707 34 1,015 3 12
Monday, June 21, 2021 33,762 55 1,017 2 11
Wednesday, June 23, 2021 33,797 35 1,021 4 11
Friday, June 25, 2021 33,846 49 1,025 4 10
Monday, June 28, 2021 33,898 52 1,029 4 12
Wednesday, June 30, 2021 33,973 75 1,029 0 8
Friday, July 2, 2021 34,044 71 1,030 1 5
Tuesday, July 6, 2021 34,149 105 1,038 8 9
Friday, July 9, 2021 34240 91 1,040 2 11
Monday, July 12, 2021 34377 137 1,045 5 15
Wednesday, July 14, 2021 34461 84 1,048 3 10
Friday, July 16, 2021 34630 169 1,056 8 16
Monday, July 19, 2021 34761 131 1,062 6 17
Wednesday, July 21, 2021 34885 124 1,070 8 22
Friday, July 23, 2021 35193 308 1,084 14 28
Monday, July 26, 2021 35482 289 1,092 8 30
Wednesday, July 28, 2021 35703 221 1,102 10 32
Friday, July 30, 2021 36004 301 1,110 8 26
Monday, August 2, 2021 36249 245 1,115 5 23
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 36525 276 1,125 10 23
Friday, August 6, 2021 36848 323 1,132 7 22
Monday, August 9, 2021 37056 208 1,141 9 26
Wednesday, August 11, 2021 37350 294 1,153 12 28
Friday, August 13, 2021 37664 314 1,167 14 35
Monday, August 16, 2021 37914 250 1,177 10 36
Wednesday, August 18, 2021 38294 380 1,187 10 34
Friday, August 20, 2021 38764 470 1,205 18 38
Monday, August 23, 2021 39002 238 1,216 11 39
Wednesday, August 25, 2021 39329 327 1,224 8 37
More CDC Resources:
Centers for Disease Control (CDC), Coronavirus, Covid 19, Delta variant, Face coverings, Vaccine

Study: Vaccinated people can carry as much virus as others

Three quarters of those infected in Provincetown were fully vaccinated!  We can show no symptoms while passing it on to children and medically compromised individuals.

Masking again? Photo AFP
Associated Press, by Lindsey Tanner, Mike Stobbe and Philip Marcelo, July 30, 2021

In another dispiriting setback for the nation’s efforts to stamp out the coronavirus, scientists who studied a big COVID-19 outbreak in Massachusetts concluded that vaccinated people who got so-called breakthrough infections carried about the same amount of the coronavirus as those who did not get the shots.

Health officials on Friday released details of that research, which was key in this week’s decision by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend that vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in parts of the U.S. where the delta variant is fueling infection surges. The authors said the findings suggest that the CDC’s mask guidance should be expanded to include the entire country, even outside of hot spots.

The findings have the potential to upend past thinking about how the disease is spread. Previously, vaccinated people who got infected were thought to have low levels of virus and to be unlikely to pass it to others. But the new data shows that is not the case with the delta variant.

The outbreak in Provincetown — a seaside tourist spot on Cape Cod in the county with Massachusetts’ highest vaccination rate — has so far included more than 900 cases. About three-quarters of them were people who were fully vaccinated.

Travis Dagenais, who was among the many vaccinated people infected, said “throwing caution to the wind” and partying in crowds for long nights over the July Fourth holiday was a mistake in hindsight.

“The dominant public messaging has been that the vaccine means a return to normal,” the 35-year-old Boston resident said Thursday. “Unfortunately, I’ve now learned it’s a few steps toward normal, not the zero-to-sixty that we seem to have undertaken.”

Dagenais credits being vaccinated with easing the worst of the flu-like symptoms in a couple of days. He has recovered.

Like many states, Massachusetts lifted all COVID-19 restrictions in late May, ahead of the traditional Memorial Day start of the summer season. Provincetown this week reinstated an indoor mask requirement for everyone.

Leaked internal documents on breakthrough infections and the delta variant suggest the CDC may be considering other changes in advice on how the nation fights the coronavirus, such as recommending masks for everyone and requiring vaccines for doctors and other health workers.

The delta variant, first detected in India, causes infections that are more contagious than the common cold, flu, smallpox and the Ebola virus, and it is as infectious as chickenpox, according to the documents, which mentioned the Provincetown cases.

The documents were obtained by The Washington Post. As they note, COVID-19 vaccines are still highly effective against the delta variant at preventing serious illness and death.

The Provincetown outbreak and the documents highlight the enormous challenge the CDC faces in encouraging vaccination while acknowledging that breakthrough cases can occur and can be contagious but are uncommon.

The documents appear to be talking points for CDC staff to use with the public. One point advised: “Acknowledge the war has changed,” an apparent reference to deepening concern that many millions of vaccinated people could be a source of wide-ranging spread.

An agency spokeswoman declined to comment on the documents.

The White House on Friday defended its approach to rising virus cases and shifting public health guidelines, repeatedly deferred to the CDC while stressing the need for vaccinations.

“The most important takeaway is actually pretty simple. We need more people to get vaccinated,” White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said.

Pressed about the changing guidance, Jean-Pierre repeatedly said, “We don’t make those types of decisions from here.”

People with breakthrough infections make up an increasing portion of hospitalizations and in-hospital deaths among COVID-19 patients, coinciding with the spread of the delta variant, according to the leaked documents.

Although experts generally agreed with the CDC’s revised indoor masking stance, some said the report on the Provincetown outbreak does not prove that vaccinated people are a significant source of new infections.

“There’s scientific plausibility for the (CDC) recommendation. But it’s not derived from this study,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins University public health researcher.

The CDC report is based on about 470 COVID-19 cases linked to the Provincetown festivities, which included densely packed indoor and outdoor holiday events at bars, restaurants, guest houses and rental homes.

Researchers ran tests on a portion of them and found roughly the same level of virus in those who were fully vaccinated and those who were not.

Three-quarters of the infections were in fully vaccinated individuals. Among those fully vaccinated, about 80% experienced symptoms with the most common being cough, headache, sore throat, muscle aches and fever.

Dagenais said he started to feel ill the evening he returned home and initially chalked it up to long nights of partying in packed Provincetown nightclubs.

But as the days wore on and the fever, chills, muscle aches and fatigue set in, he knew it was something more.

In the report, the measure researchers used to assess how much virus an infected person is carrying does not indicate whether they are actually transmitting the virus to other people, said Dr. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan.

CDC officials say more data is coming. They are tracking breakthrough cases as part of much larger studies that involve following tens of thousands of vaccinated and unvaccinated people across the country over time.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.