Category Archives: Keeping Watch on Earth News

Bomb Trains, Crude By Rail, Federal deregulation, Keeping Watch on Earth News, Oil train derailment and explosion, Oil trains, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), State regulation, Trump administration, Washington State

Trump admin’s stunning explanation for easing up on oil trains: Safety no excuse for “inhibiting market growth”

Safety Can’t Be a ‘Pretext’ for Regulating Unsafe Oil Trains, Says Trump Admin

Desmog, by Justin Mikulka, May 20, 2020
Lac-Megantic oil train explosion
Train burning in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec. Credit: Transportation Safety Board of Canada, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

The federal agency overseeing the safe transport of hazardous materials released a stunning explanation of its May 11 decision striking down a Washington state effort to regulate trains carrying volatile oil within its borders. A state cannot use “safety as a pretext for inhibiting market growth,” wrote Paul J. Roberti, the chief counsel for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA).

The statement appeared in the Trump administration’s justification for overruling Washington’s oil train regulation, which was challenged by crude-producing North Dakota and oil industry lobbying groups. The Washington rule seeks to limit oil vapor pressure unloaded from trains to less than 9 pounds per square inch (psi) in an attempt to reduce the likelihood that train derailments lead to the now-familiar fireballs and explosions accompanying trains transporting volatile oil.

Roberti wrote: “Proponents of the law insist Washington State has a legitimate public interest to protect its citizens from oil train fires and explosions, but in the context of the transportation of crude oil by rail, a State cannot use safety as a pretext for inhibiting market growth or instituting a de facto ban on crude oil by rail within its borders.”

With this statement, PHMSA is codifying what has been clear for some time at the regulatory agencies responsible for overseeing the transportation of hazardous materials by rail: that is, profits take priority over safety.

Rail Industry ‘Pre-emption’ and Safety Under Trump

A year ago, the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), PHMSA‘s parent agency, invoked the same legal argument, known as “pre-emption,” to overrule state efforts to require at minimum two-person crews for operating freight trains. As part of the explanation for that decision, the DOT‘s Federal Railroad Administration announced that it was adopting a policy of deregulation.

“DOT’s approach to achieving safety improvements begins with a focus on removing unnecessary barriers and issuing voluntary guidance, rather than regulations that could stifle innovation,” wrote the agency.

A regulatory agency announcing a broad deregulatory agenda was shocking. However, this latest move openly declares that, while Washington state may have an interest in protecting its citizens from “oil train fires and explosions,” that concern should not get in the way of the oil industry’s ability to ship more of its product by rail through the state, apparently even if that increases the risk of oil train fires and explosions to Washington residents. This logic reaches a new level of prioritizing profits over people as regulatory practice.


Historically, or at least, theoretically, government has based regulations on cost-benefit analyses, weighing the costs of complying for the regulated entities against the benefits, such as lives saved or accidents prevented, as a result of the new rules. Here, the DOT‘s new regulatory approach appears to weigh primarily the benefits for the rail and oil industries while downplaying the potential cost in human lives.

However, these industries did argue about costs to get to this point. As DeSmog has repeatedly documented, lowering the vapor pressure of oil below 9 psi is possible through a process called stabilization, which makes oil less volatile and less likely to ignite. Conditioning the oil in this way before loading on trains would require the oil industry to invest in stabilization equipment, which the industry has argued is not economically feasible.

In 2014, Myron Goforth, the president of Dew Point Control LLC, a manufacturer of stabilization equipment, put the situation in simple terms. “It’s very easy to stabilize the crude — it just takes money,” Goforth told Reuters. “The producer doesn’t want to pay for it if he can ship it without doing it.”

DOT‘s May 11 decision notes that “compliance with the [Washington] law can only be accomplished by (1) pretreating the crude oil prior to loading the tank car.” Exactly: Making the oil safe to ship on long, heavy trains through small towns and large cities requires stabilizing, or conditioning, before loading it into tank cars (just as the industry does before loading oil in pipelines or on ocean-going tankers, at least in Texas). DOT makes no argument about how companies could comply with the Washington law, outside of trying to avoid passing through the state entirely or using a different transportation mode other than trains.

A particularly telling clue behind the DOT‘s conclusion that the Washington law should be pre-empted is found in the commenters whose opinions the agency is highlighting: “In light of the infrastructure, equipment, and other logistical issues, the commenters have concluded that pretreating is economically infeasible or unrealistic.”

In this case, the “commenters” the DOT is referencing are members of the oil industry and its lobbyists, including the refinery company Hess Corporation, Marathon Petroleum, the American Petroleum Institute (API), American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, and the North Dakota Petroleum Council.

At an oil-by-rail conference in 2016, an API official described the industry’s attitude about the prospect of requiring oil stabilization for rail transport: “We in the oil and gas industry see this as a very dangerous conversation.”


In December 2017, Trump’s Federal Railroad Administration repealed an Obama-era rule requiring modern braking systems on oil trains despite overwhelming evidence that these systems improve rail safety. Sarah Feinberg, former head of the Federal Railroad Administration, offered important context about rail industry opposition to that rule.

“The science is there, the data is there,” Feinberg said of the efforts to require updated rail braking systems on oil trains. “Their argument is, despite that data, [they] don’t want to spend the money on it.”

That seems to be the rule for overseeing rail safety under the Trump administration. If a rule costs industry money to improve safety and protect the public from oil train fires and explosions, the industry will push back against its regulators, who appear to be pushovers, especially but not exclusively under Trump.

The alternative of prohibiting oil transportation by rail, because it is apparently too dangerous and too costly to do safely, is never even considered.

Ignoring the Science

The latest decision on the Washington state case continues a trend under Trump to overlook robust science when regulating oil by rail. However, you might not know it from the comments of this decision’s supporters.

PHMSA used a single, flawed study from Sandia National Laboratories to support its conclusion that limiting the vapor pressure of oil moved by rail is unnecessary — while the agency ignored all the other established research on vapor pressure, volatility, and ignitability of crude oil.

The North Dakota Congressional delegation opened its statement praising the May 11 decision with lip service to science: “We thank the administration for doing the right thing by putting sound, scientific evidence above partisan politics.”

In the same vein, Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, told the Associated Press, “There is nothing unusual about the volatility of Bakken crude oil,” a claim the North Dakota attorney general has also made to argue against the Washington vapor pressure law.

And yet these statements don’t stand up to scrutiny. In my book Bomb Trains: How Industry Greed and Regulatory Failure Put the Public at Risk, I present the evidence that Bakken crude oil’s volatility is higher than other regions and that this factor makes a difference. This crude oil is much more volatile than traditional crude oil from Louisiana or Texas, and that volatility, along with other factors, makes it more likely to ignite in oil train derailments.

WATCH: Justin Mikulka, Sept 2015: The Science of Bomb Trains

As I noted at the time of its publishing, the Sandia Labs study is deeply flawed and does not study the actual issue of oil igniting during train derailments.

As for whether Bakken oil’s volatility is “unusual,” a Wall Street Journal analysis found in 2014 that “Crude oil from North Dakota’s Bakken Shale formation contains several times the combustible gases as oil from elsewhere.” These combustible gases are what give the Bakken oil much higher vapor pressure levels than most other crude oils from the U.S.

The combustible gases in the oil are natural gas liquids like butane and propane, which is why the oil is so volatile.

At the same time that the oil industry tries to say Bakken oil isn’t more volatile than other oils, it argues that Bakken oil’s value lies in these extra natural gas liquids. Stabilizing the oil by removing these gases from the oil not only would cost the industry money but the resulting oil would be worth less to the industry.

The DOT notes as much in its recent decision: “These higher vapor pressure hazardous materials, such as butane, ethane, and other natural gases, are deemed essential and valuable components of Bakken crude.”

The oil industry has no argument to make on a scientific basis here, only an economic one. Reducing the vapor pressure of oil by removing gases like butane and ethane makes it less volatile and less likely to ignite. That is established by research. But the industry has repeatedly argued that removing these flammable gases from the oil would make it less valuable, which is one of its justifications for not stabilizing the oil.

A Second Bakken Bomb Train Boom Could Be on the Way

The only things that have kept the estimated 25 million North Americans living along railroad blast zones safer from dangerous oil trains is the success of activists who have blocked new oil-by-rail projects and oil industry economics. Because transporting oil by rail is more expensive than by pipeline or ocean-going tankers, the industry moves much less oil on trains when oil prices are low.


Oil train protesters in Albany, New York, in May 2016. Credit: Justin Mikulka

With current oil prices at record lows in the U.S. and Canada, it doesn’t make economic sense to move oil by rail, which is good news for the millions of people living along the rails.

However, a current legal battle over the Dakota Access pipeline could make moving Bakken oil by rail a major mode of transportation, perhaps regardless of oil price.

A judge recently set a hearing to review the permitting process for the controversial pipeline, currently moving 500,000 barrels of crude per day. Depending on the outcome, that hearing could result in the judge vacating the pipeline’s permits, shutting it down and diverting all of that Bakken oil back onto the rails in a big way, at levels that would surpass the records of 2014. The Obama administration passed oil train safety regulations in 2015 in response to the fiery accidents and oil spills that coincided with the boom in oil train traffic.

The Trump administration has steadily worked to roll back the modest progress of those safety rules, with the last one, on vapor pressure for oil by rail, withdrawn from the rulemaking process the very same day the DOT pre-empted Washington’s vapor pressure rule.

Now, an essentially unregulated oil-by-rail industry poses a real risk to public safety and the environment. With the Trump administration shooting down Washinton’s rule and repealing previous safety regulations, the risks of moving volatile oil by rail are essentially the same as in 2013. That was the same year a train hauling Bakken oil exploded in downtown Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, and killed 47 people.

Today, Bakken oil is just as volatile — and dangerous. The trains pulling upwards of a hundred cars of oil have the same outdated braking systems. Regulators have no requirements overseeing train track integrity or wear (the two latest oil train derailments and fires in Canada were likely because of track failures). There are no regulations on train length. And while rail companies have phased in a newer class of tank cars, those cars have ruptured in every major derailment involving oil and ethanol trains.

The accident in Lac-Mégantic happened almost seven years ago. An early Wall Street Journal article after the accident quoted an oil industry executive who said, “Crude oil doesn’t explode like that.”

Which is true in most cases. But Bakken crude does explode like that because it is full of gases like butane, is highly volatile, and has much higher vapor pressure than most other crude oils.

While that doesn’t have to be true, the Trump administration is taking steps to make sure it is.

Main image: Train burning in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec. Credit: Transportation Safety Board of Canada, CC BY–NC–ND 2.0

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Keeping Watch on Earth News, World Health Organization (WHO), Worldwide pandemic

COVID-19 more deadly than previously reported, far more deadly than flu

Is COVID-19 deadlier than we thought?

Case fatality rate now twice what WHO reported in March
Graves of people who died in the past 30 days fill a new section of the Nossa Senhora Aparecida cemetery, amid the new coronavirus pandemic in Manaus, Brazil, Monday, 5/11/20. The new section was opened last month to cope with a sudden surge in deaths. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana)
Vallejo Times-Herald, By John Woolfolk, May 14, 2020
Among the key questions shaping debate around restrictive health measures to combat COVID-19 is how dangerous is the new coronavirus. Is it more like a bad strain of influenza, or is it deadlier?

Health experts say it’s too early in the pandemic for a definitive answer because the basic information to make that calculation — how many people contracted COVID-19 and how many died of it — isn’t fully known due to testing limitations.

But on March 3, before the rapid spread of cases prompted lockdowns around the U.S., the World Health Organization’s director- general reported that “globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” and “by comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.”

Today, by the WHO’s global case and fatality tally, the world’s COVID-19 death rate is twice what it reported in March — 7%. Other organizations tracking figures, such as Johns Hopkins University, show a similarly high global case fatality rate. Regionally, the figures vary more. WHO and Johns Hopkins figures for the U.S. show a rate around 6%, while the WHO’s figures for Europe indicate a rate of 9%.

“COVID19 is a pretty severe disease,” said Santa Clara Valley Medical Center Dr. Heng Duong, who rattled off similar case fatality rates to the Santa Clara County board of supervisors this week. “It is true most people do OK. But when folks get sick, they get really sick.”

By comparison, SARS — Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome — caused by a cousin of the new coronavirus killed 774 — 10% — of the 8,098 people it infected in a 2003 outbreak, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But that virus proved not nearly as infectious, so it didn’t spread far.

The 1918-19 influenza pandemic, one of the most severe in history, which killed an estimated 50 million globally and 675,000 in the U.S., is generally estimated to have had a case fatality rate of more than 2.5%.

Duong and other experts said the true case fatality rate for COVID-19 may be much lower because there likely are a large number of people who have been infected with mild symptoms and were not confirmed through testing, which has largely been focused on those seeking hospital treatment or in highrisk settings.

But Duong added that “even if the case fatality rate is closer to 1%, that’s actually very high,” noting that seasonal influenza’s fatality rate is about a tenth of that.

In the U.S., 80% of COVID- 19 deaths have been among those age 65 and older, according to the CDC.

What does all this mean for us? Dr. Robert Siegel, a Stanford University professor of microbiology and immunology, said the relative danger of the disease has been part of a tug-ofwar between advocates and critics of public health lockdowns aimed at checking the virus’ spread. But the specific case rate ultimately doesn’t matter much — the public health response will be the same.

“There is a political component in how these things are being estimated,” Siegel said. “The fact is, we know this is a serious disease. We already know this is more serious than the flu. If you get the disease and the case fatality rate is 1% or the case fatality rate is 5%, I think you’d treat those the same. That would be an alarmingly high rate — you wouldn’t play Russian Roulette with those odds. If it’s 1 in a million that’s something else.”

The debate comes amid recent reports acknowledging a wider array of symptoms and complications in many COVID-19 cases — from “COVID-toe” skin lesions and loss of smell to kidney, heart and neurological damage, blood clots and strokes. Duong noted that influenza can cause some of those symptoms in some cases too, though the frequency has been higher with COVID-19. Still, he said about eight in 10 infected with the disease are able to ride it out at home.

Dr. Stephen Luby, an epidemiologist and professor of medicine at Stanford University, believes broader testing will eventually increase the number of people who have been infected and pull down the case fatality rate. “Some people do become very ill from this virus, but I do not see any evidence that this is substantially worse than the cases reported out of China early in the epidemic,” Luby said. “I still expect the infection fatality ratio to remain less than 1%. I expect that it will be worse than a typical influenza year, but not as bad as the influenza pandemic in 1919.”

Coronavirus, Covid 19, Economy, Keeping Watch on Earth News, Re-opening, World, Worldwide pandemic

Reopenings risk more virus outbreaks in the U.S. and around the world

Reopenings bring new cases in S. Korea, virus fears in Italy

A street that is normally swarming with vacationers as the tourism season kicks off stands empty in Cyprus’ popular seaside resort village of Ayia Napa, Saturday, May 9, 2020. With coronavirus restrictions gradually lifting, Cyprus authorities are mulling ways to get holidaymakers back to the tourism-reliant island nation that officials say is conservatively estimated to lose at least 60% of its annual tourist arrivals. (AP Photo/Petros Karadjias)
Associated Press, by Nicole Winfield, Vanessa Gera, Amy Forliti, 5/1020

ROME (AP) — South Korea’s capital closed down more than 2,100 bars and other nightspots Saturday because of a new cluster of coronavirus infections, Germany scrambled to contain fresh outbreaks at slaughterhouses, and Italian authorities worried that people were getting too friendly at cocktail hour during the country’s first weekend of eased restrictions.

The new flareups — and fears of a second wave of contagion — underscored the dilemma authorities face as they try to reopen their economies.

Around the world, the U.S. and other hard-hit countries are wrestling with how to ease curbs on business and public activity without causing the virus to come surging back.

In New York, the deadliest hot spot in the U.S., Gov. Andrew Cuomo said three children died from a possible complication of the coronavirus involving swollen blood vessels and heart problems. At least 73 children statewide have been diagnosed with symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease — a rare inflammatory condition — and toxic shock syndrome. But there is no proof the mysterious syndrome is caused by the virus.

Two members of the White House coronavirus task force — the heads of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Food and Drug Administration — placed themselves in quarantine after contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19, a stark reminder that not even one of the nation’s most secure buildings is immune from the virus.

Elsewhere, Belarus, which has not locked down despite sharply rising infections, saw tens of thousands turn out to mark Victory Day, the anniversary of Nazi Germany’s defeat in 1945. Authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed concerns about the virus as a “psychosis.”

That was in contrast to Russia, which skipped the usual grand military parade in Moscow’s Red Square. This year’s observance had been expected to be especially large because it is the 75th anniversary, but instead, President Vladimir Putin laid flowers at the tomb of the unknown soldier and a show of military might was limited to a flyover of 75 warplanes and helicopters.

Worldwide, 4 million people have been confirmed infected by the virus, and more than 279,000 have died, including over 78,000 in the U.S., according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. Spain, France, Italy and Britain have reported around 26,000 to 32,000 deaths each.

Germany and South Korea have both carried out extensive testing and contact tracing and have been hailed for avoiding the mass deaths that overwhelmed other countries. But even there, authorities have struggled to find the balance between saving lives and salvaging jobs.

Seoul shut down nightclubs, hostess bars and discos after dozens of infections were linked to people who went out last weekend as the country relaxed social distancing. Many of the infections were connected to a 29-year-old man who visited three nightclubs before testing positive.

Mayor Park Won-soon said health workers were trying to contact some 1,940 people who had been at the three clubs and other places nearby. The mayor said gains made against the virus are now threatened “because of a few careless people.”

Germany faced outbreaks at three slaughterhouses in what was seen as a test of its strategy for dealing with any resurgence as restrictions ease. At one slaughterhouse, in Coesfeld, 180 workers tested positive.

Businesses in the U.S. continue to struggle as more employers reluctantly conclude that their laid-off employees might not return to work anytime soon. Health officials are watching for a second wave of infections, roughly two weeks after states began gradually reopening with Georgia largely leading the way.

Some malls have opened up in Georgia and Texas, while Nevada restaurants, hair salons and other businesses were able to have limited reopenings Saturday or once again allow customers inside after nearly two months of restrictions.

The reopening of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park along the Tennessee-North Carolina border was a bit too tempting a draw as scores of nature lovers crowded parking lots and trails and even trekked into closed areas, park spokeswoman Dana Soehn said. Many did not wear masks.

In Los Angeles, hikes to the iconic hillside Hollywood sign and hitting the golf links were allowed as the California county hit hardest reopened some sites to recreation-starved stay-at-homers.

Mayor Eric Garcetti urged “good judgment” and said the city would rely on education and encouragement rather than heavy-handed enforcement: “Not our vision to make this like a junior high school dance with people standing too close to each other,” he said.

In New York, a Cuomo spokesman said the governor was extending stay-at-home restrictions to June 7, but another top aide later clarified that that was not so; the May 15 expiration date for the restrictions remains in place “until further notice,” Melissa DeRosa said in an evening statement.

The federal government said it was delivering supplies of remdesivir, the first drug shown to speed recovery for COVID-19 patients, to six more states, after seven others were sent cases of the medicine earlier this week.

Italy saw people return to the streets and revel in fine weather.

Milan Mayor Giuseppe Sala warned that “a handful of crazy people” were putting his city’s recovery at risk and threatened to shut down the trendy Navigli district after crowds of young people were seen out at the traditional aperitivo hour ignoring social-distancing rules.

The Campo dei Fiori flower and vegetable market was also bustling in Rome. But confusion created frustrations for the city’s shopkeepers.

Carlo Alberto, owner of TabaCafe, an Argentine empanada bar that was selling cocktails to a few customers, said that since reopening this week, police had threatened to fine him over crowds outside.

“Am I supposed to send them home? They need a guard here to do that,” he said. “The laws aren’t clear, the decree isn’t clear. You don’t know what you can do.”

Elsewhere, Pakistan allowed shops, factories, construction sites and other businesses to reopen, even as more than 1,600 new cases and 24 deaths were reported. Prime Minister Imran Khan said the government was rolling back curbs because it can’t support millions who depend on daily wages. But controls could be reimposed if people fail to practice social distancing.

In Spain certain regions can scale back lockdowns starting Monday, with limited seating at bars, restaurants and other public places. But Madrid and Barcelona, the country’s largest cities, will remain shut down.

“The pandemic is evolving favorably, but there is a risk of another outbreak that could generate a serious catastrophe,” Spanish health official Fernando Simón said. “Personal responsibility is vital.”

Gera reported from Warsaw, Poland, and Forliti reported from Minneapolis. Associated Press journalists around the world contributed to this report.
American Samoa, Coronavirus, Covid 19, Keeping Watch on Earth News

A Place in the U.S. With No Covid-19? Look to American Samoa

The territory, which has sealed itself off from the outside world, has no confirmed cases.

Some credit American Samoa’s good fortune to its enduring memories of the 1918 influenza epidemic, which wiped out much of neighboring Samoa’s population.
Some credit American Samoa’s good fortune to its enduring memories of the 1918 influenza epidemic, which wiped out much of neighboring Samoa’s population. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times
The New York Times, by Simon Romero, May 6, 2020 (Updated 5/820)

The coronavirus death toll in the United States is climbing past 70,000, with thousands of new cases every day. But there is still one part of the country without a single confirmed case, much less a fatality: American Samoa, a palm-fringed Polynesian archipelago that has sealed itself off for nearly two months from the outside world.

Other U.S. islands lost their early battles to keep the infection out. But American Samoa’s success so far has been no accident, public health officials say. The territory moved swiftly to halt nearly all incoming flights, rapidly boosted testing ability and took advantage of social distancing strategies that had already been adopted in response to a measles outbreak at the end of last year.

The enduring trauma of the 1918 influenza pandemic, which left American Samoa relatively unscathed but wiped out a fifth of the population of neighboring independent Samoa, has also influenced aggressive anti-contagion moves at each stage of the crisis.

“Life in our bubble is somewhat unique compared to the rest of the world,” said Bishop Peter Brown, leader of the Roman Catholic church in American Samoa. Church services were quickly shut down when the coronavirus began its spread across the United States, he said.

Schools had been preparing to emerge from a measles closure in effect from December through early March when a “continuing” public health emergency was declared, effective on March 23.

“Apart from that, life is pretty normal, but supplies are somewhat sparse with shipping restricted,” Bishop Brown said. He added that many American Samoans were anxiously following the surging death toll on the mainland. “They need the help more than us,” he said.

The 55,000 people in the territory have been allowed to go to bars, nightclubs and restaurants, albeit in smaller numbers over the past month, with a limit of 10 customers at a time. Civil servants are working part time but have not stopped going into offices. The largest private employer, a tuna cannery with more than 2,000 workers, has continued to hum along.

A village road in Nu’uuli. Without plane traffic, the skies over the island have become eerily quiet. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times
Riders on a bus in Fagatogo. Capacity on buses was limited to promote social distancing.
Riders on a bus in Fagatogo. Capacity on buses was limited to promote social distancing. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times
Children sell their produce at the Fagatogo Market.
Children sell their produce at the Fagatogo Market. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times

In telephone interviews, text messages and social media postings, people in American Samoa described experiencing a surreal mixture of relief, isolation and apprehension over what the future holds for the territory, which lies about 1,600 miles from New Zealand and 2,200 miles from Hawaii.

“Since flights were suspended in March, the silence of the skies is eerie,” said Monica Miller, the news director at an operator of radio stations in the territory.

Eying the spread of the virus in parts of Asia, Gov. Lolo M. Moliga moved assertively weeks before some of his counterparts elsewhere in the United States to shield his constituents.

In early March, Mr. Moliga halted the territory’s two weekly flights to and from Hawaii, then did the same with flights to Apia, the capital of neighboring Samoa. Since then, one of the territory’s only lifelines is a cargo flight arriving with medical supplies and food once a week from Hawaii.

“We’ve been preparing for the big one for some time,” said Iulogologo Joseph Pereira, the head of American Samoa’s coronavirus task force.
“We’ve been preparing for the big one for some time,” said Iulogologo Joseph Pereira, the head of American Samoa’s coronavirus task force. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times

The territorial government also quickly formed a coronavirus task force in March, introducing a variety of moderate social distancing measures in addition to the church and school closures. For instance, public gatherings in bingo halls and theaters were suspended, and the territorial correctional facility was closed for visitation.

At the time, anxiety was running high over the potential for the virus to devastate American Samoa. Large parts of the population have conditions that could heighten the risk of dying from Covid-19, such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity.

Moreover, the territory has a shortage of medical workers and only one hospital, the Lyndon B. Johnson Tropical Medical Center, with the capacity to treat about 10 coronavirus patients at a time.

When suspected cases began emerging in March, officials worried about having no way to analyze coronavirus tests except by submitting them to the nearest American public health laboratory, thousands of miles away in Hawaii, and waiting for the results.

“It was a really frightening and scary time, like flying blind in a storm,” said Larry Sanitoa, a member of the Fono, American Samoa’s bicameral legislature, and chairman of a nursing home called Hope House.

None of the tests came back positive. But tension over a sense of helplessness was building in the territory, which the United States annexed in 1900 while assembling an empire in the Pacific; Germany, then New Zealand, took possession of neighboring Samoa, part of the same archipelago.

Church services in American Samoa were quickly shut down when the coronavirus began its spread across the United States.
Church services in American Samoa were quickly shut down when the coronavirus began its spread across the United States. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times
Fliers urge residents to combat Covid-19 at the A.P. Lutali Executive Office Building in Utulei.
Fliers urge residents to combat Covid-19 at the A.P. Lutali Executive Office Building in Utulei. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times
A Manu’a store employee wears multiple layers of masks in Tafuna.
A Manu’a store employee wears multiple layers of masks in Tafuna. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times
Utueli Beach is closed.
Utueli Beach is closed. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times

The people of the territory are U.S. nationals, not citizens, meaning they can fight in the armed forces and live in the rest of the United States. But they are ineligible to hold many public jobs and cannot vote for president or run for office outside of American Samoa.

In a letter to President Trump in March, Mr. Moliga, the Democratic governor, said the territory needed assistance and was doing its part to help other Americans, including the hundreds who were aboard the Norwegian Jewel cruise ship when it was allowed to refuel in American Samoa after being turned away at ports in Fiji and French Polynesia.

Since then, the territory has obtained at least $35 million of federal aid to deal with the pandemic, along with more than 1,000 test kits and a machine to analyze them.

Iulogologo Joseph Pereira, the head of American Samoa’s coronavirus task force, said the dozens of tests performed since the machine arrived in mid-April were all negative.

With those results and no signs of local transmission of the virus, the territory remains the only part of the United States that is not under a major disaster declaration. Mr. Pereira said the territory’s response to recent disease outbreaks — Zika in 2016, dengue in 2017 and 2018, and measles in 2019 — influenced decisions early in the crisis.

“We’ve been preparing for the big one for some time,” he said.

Health officials were already on high alert after the measles outbreak in December, and watched with some horror as 83 people, the vast majority children younger than 5, were killed by the disease in neighboring Samoa.

A tent outside Lyndon B. Johnson Tropical Medical Center’s emergency room in Faga’alu sits empty. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times

Swift action during that outbreak prevented deaths from measles, evoking for many in American Samoa the response to the influenza pandemic a century ago. At that time, New Zealand, which ruled what is now independent Samoa, allowed the virus to spread. The flu killed about 8,500 in the colony in just two months.

In contrast, the naval governor of American Samoa isolated the territory, much as leaders are doing now. American Samoa was one of the few places in the world to emerge from the 1918 pandemic without any flu deaths.

“Stringent measures kept American Samoa free of deaths then, and we cannot afford to deviate from the same today,” said Tamari Mulitalo-Cheung, a writer who teaches at American Samoa Community College.

Being a far-flung archipelago in the Pacific may help. Other places in Oceania that have taken measures similar to American Samoa, including the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and independent Samoa, also remain among the world’s few places without confirmed coronavirus cases.

The virus has reached other parts of the United States in the Pacific, though with less devastating effects than parts of the mainland. Guam has had five deaths, while the virus has killed 17 people in Hawaii and two in the Northern Mariana Islands.

In Puerto Rico, the most populous United States territory, the virus has killed 99 people. Early action by Puerto Rican authorities, including imposing curfews and shutting businesses, is thought to have staved off a much higher death toll.

At this point, some in American Samoa are urging the authorities to relax some measures.

Cargo ships are still allowed to dock and unload at the port in American Samoa. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times

In a session of the legislature last week, Vice Speaker Fetu Fetui noted that he had already seen crowds at banks, restaurants and government offices. He questioned whether distancing measures were being broadly enforced, and called for an easing of restrictions.

There are also a few exceptions to American Samoa’s self-isolation. In addition to the cargo ships that are still allowed to dock and unload at the port, a private jet carrying three engineers for StarKist was permitted in April to land at the airport in Pago Pago, the capital, for repairs at the tuna cannery. The engineers had previously tested negative for the virus, said Mr. Pereira of the task force.

He insisted that the authorities were “erring on the side of caution.” Last week, the governor said that current restrictions would be maintained at least until June.

More American Samoans live outside the territory, in places like New Zealand, Hawaii and the mainland United States, than in the territory, making the travel restrictions especially challenging for families that find themselves separated.

“It’s extremely difficult,” said Eddie Vaouli, 42, an American Samoan who has been stranded in Hawaii since March 20. “It’s expensive in Honolulu.”

Some in the territory are also dealing with financial fallout. Donna Gurr, the owner of the largest flower shop in American Samoa, said her business volume had declined by about 50 percent since the distancing measures were introduced. Her store relies heavily on sales of leis for church services every Sunday.

“If this lasts for a year, I could feel different. But right now I feel safe and secure,” said Donna Gurr of Island Flowers.
“If this lasts for a year, I could feel different. But right now I feel safe and secure,” said Donna Gurr of Island Flowers. Credit…Gabby Fa’ai’uaso for The New York Times

Still, Ms. Gurr said she approved of the government’s pandemic response. “When and if this virus arrives, it will be devastating on us,” she said.

Going further, Ms. Gurr said she did not feel too isolated at the moment. “Maybe it hasn’t been long enough,” she said. “If this lasts for a year, I could feel different. But right now, I feel safe and secure.”

Simon Romero is a national correspondent based in Albuquerque, covering immigration and other issues. He was previously the bureau chief in Brazil and in Caracas, Venezuela, and reported on the global energy industry from Houston. @viaSimonRomero
A version of this article appears in print on , Section A, Page 8 of the New York edition with the headline: For American Samoa, Opting to Slam Shut Its Doors Has Worked.