[Note from BenIndy: This post was first published on Stephen Golub’s blog, A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country. There, Steve blogs about domestic and international politics and policy, including lessons that the United States can learn from other nations. If interested, you may sign up for future posts by subscribing to the blog.]

Summing up how Harris can win, can lose and what she needs to do.

 

Humanity. It’s a cliche for a politician to play up their human qualities, especially in the context of a campaign ad, but this one offers an insight about Harris that’s personal, poignant and a powerfully clear contrast with her opponent:

Enthusiasm. I’d bet that many of us have never experienced a surprising, joyous, politically driven emotional leap like we did the moment we learned that Biden dropped out; I’ll never forget getting my wife’s “OhMyGosh!” text.

Change. In a year when a vast number of voters were sick of their two alternatives, which this Jon Stewart rant aptly and furiously framed as a choice between a “megalomaniac and a suffocating gerontocracy,” Harris is a breath of fresh air compared to the tired, toxic cloud that’s Trump.

She’s telegenic. This shouldn’t matter but it does in an image-focused society where, to paraphrase an old Billy Crystal Saturday Night Live bit, it’s not how you feel (or think or act) – it’s how you look.

She projects positive, cheerful energy. In contrast with dour, “American carnage” Donald.

Black women’s votes and activism. Though it would be overly ambitious to see them as democracy’s saviors, public enthusiasm for her candidacy starts (but by no means ends) with the Democratic Party’s most loyal voting bloc; it could be crucial in turning out Black and other support, even in the predominantly white swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The Indian American vote. America’s five million Indian Americans constitute the country’s second largest immigrant group, with 70 percent of their voters opting for Biden-Harris in 2020 and in a close 2024 contest a potentially larger pro-Harris margin in swing states such as Pennsylvania (61,000 voters in 2020), Georgia (57,000), Michigan (45,000) and North Carolina (36,000) possibly making a difference.

Young people’s votes and activism. Kamala is generating excitement among young voters dismayed by the former choice between Old and Older.

She’s not Biden. That’s a bit cruel but certainly true. In addition to the age difference, she can put together a speech, an argument and an appearance far better than Joe.

She’ll learn from Biden. Though her candidacy and campaign will unavoidably differ from his 2020 battle, she’ll profit by knowing what Biden did right and wrong along the way, as well as from his admirable presidency.

She’s not Clinton. She doesn’t have the baggage that burdened Hillary in 2016 by virtue of virtually ceaseless attacks on her over the course of her quarter-century on the national stage and hostility toward her even among some Democrats.

She’ll learn from Clinton. Among other things, she’s already on the attack and won’t be impeded by Hillary’s (and Michelle Obama’s) commendable but credulous “When they go low, we go high” sentiments because, in Kamala’s own words, “I know Trump’s type.”

She’ll learn from herself. Harris’s 2020 presidential candidacy did not go well, to put it mildly. She’s presumably learned from that.

Harris the prosecutor. As she puts it, she’ll “prosecute the case” against Trump in debates and otherwise, as the prosecutor takes on the felon and the cop tackles the crook.

A running start. Though I’d favored an open process for picking Biden’s replacement, Harris’s ability to quickly step into his campaign shoes and forestall opposition has been impressive – especially in contrast with that alternative process, which would have left the Democrats scrambling for a candidate who would then need to build a campaign practically from scratch after the Democratic Convention, weeks from now.

Timing. As Sarah Longwell of the conservative anti-Trump site The Bulwark points out, Harris benefits from a combination of circumstances coming together – including the contrast with Trump, the absence of a divisive primary contest and the short general election time frame – to propel  and bolster her candidacy.

Project 25. Harris can and will attack the ambitious, nefarious “Project 25” plan, put forward by the Trump-supporting Heritage Foundation, which would restrict abortion rights nationally, replace many thousands of civil servants with political appointees, enable Trump to order FBI investigations and DOJ prosecutions of political opponents and otherwise wreak havoc on the country.

Trump’s deterioration since 2016. As demonstrated by his endless Republican Convention acceptance speech, he’s rambling, stumbling and bumbling through his tired “greatest hits” that may continue to excite his MAGA base but prompt more critical press and public attention.

Trump has even more piggish baggage than 2016. Among many other things, a jury found him liable for sexual abuse that the trial judge subsequently explained constitutes rape (via digital penetration) in many people’s and authorities’ eyes, including those of the U.S. Department of Justice and the American Psychological Association.

Trump doubled down on that baggage by picking a Mini-Me in Vance.Among many other things, J.D. has accused alleged “childless cat ladies” of running and ruining the country – and then himself foolishly doubled down by only seeking to make amends with cats.

Maybe most of all, women’s rights. As demonstrated by Trump’s and Vance’s conduct and words, the threat is not just about the Supreme Court cruelly and crucially overturning Roe v. Wade; it’s about an ongoing assault on women’s rights and equality, which Harris was smart to attack in her first campaign address by emphasizing “We’re not going back!”

Bad things going against her.

Sexism.

Racism.

Nativism. It’s sad that in a nation of immigrants Trump will use her being the child of immigrants against Harris, but just watch.

Harris the prosecutor. Though (as already noted) an asset in key respects, after spending most of her professional life in various prosecutorial roles Harris has to be more than this – and sometimes not a prosecutor at all – in strategizing and making her case to the public, which is not a courtroom.

Her California background. As justifiably important as it is to stand up for women, minorities and the disenfranchised in California (and everywhere else), a focus on those progressive priorities can backfire if she doesn’t take pains to reassure men and whites, if she can’t distance herself from policy positions unpopular in swing states and if she doesn’t also prioritize bread-and-butter economic issues that surveys indicate resonate for voters.

Voter suppression. We’ve been so busy with Biden’s withdrawal, Harris’s positive possibilities and Trump’s political depravities that we might overlook the ever-expanding Republican voter suppression playbook, which features many Republican-controlled states adopting laws and other restrictions that criminalize legitimate voter outreach and registration efforts; not surprisingly, Florida leads the way with fines of up to $250,000.

The maybes that will determine whether she wins.

Quickly flesh out her public image. As with some prior vice presidents, public knowledge about Harris is quite limited; she can positively shape and reshape her image, but has to move fast since Trump is trying to do same against her.

Stay on the attack. She’s off to a great start, but has to keep making Trump the focus – not that this will sway his supporters, but because it could affect the sliver of voters that will decide the election in the key swing states.

Show that the snipes against her are unfair or outdated. Criticisms of her high staff turnover, her disastrous 2020 primary campaign and other negative factors could help drag her down unless she counteracts them – something she’s strongly started to do with the fine roll-out of her campaign.

Counteract the VP snipes. She’ll particularly need to play up her contributions to the Biden Administration, ranging from her foreign policy roles to taking the lead on women’s rights (which she’s already ably doing), and combat the unfair blasts about her supposedly being a failed “Border Czar” when in fact she had far narrower responsibilities, mainly regarding the root causes of Central American immigration.

Pick a good running mate. With no shortage of fine candidates out there, I’ll favor Arizona Senator Mark Kelly as a former combat jet pilot and astronaut who movingly supported his wife (former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords) and campaigned for gun control after a mass shooting gravely wounded her and who speaks powerfully about Harris’s potentially most vulnerable issue, immigration.

Persuade Americans to choose hope over hate. I’ll close by borrowing a page from Harris’s own playbook, and hope that the message and messenger will triumph at this turning point in America’s history. I believe that they will.

[Hat tip: RF.]