Smoke from California fires may have killed more than 1,000 people

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA – AUGUST 19: Smoke blankets the area from local fires in San Jose, Calif., on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group)

Vallejo Times-Herald, by Paul Rogers, September 25, 2020

Heavy smoke from wildfires that choked much of California in recent weeks was more than an annoyance.

It was deadly. And it almost certainly killed more people than the flames from the massive fires themselves, health experts say.

Between Aug. 1 and Sept. 10, the historically bad concentrations of wildfire smoke were responsible for at least 1,200 and possibly up to 3,000 deaths in California that otherwise would not have occurred, according to an estimate by researchers at Stanford University. Those fatalities were among people 65 and older, most of whom were living with pre-existing medical conditions such as heart disease, diabetes and respiratory ailments.

By comparison, through Wednesday, 26 people have died directly in wildfires this year statewide.

“Clean air is much more important than we realize,” said Marshall Burke, an associate professor of earth system science at Stanford who calculated the impacts. “When you look at it on a population level, you can see very clearly that breathing clean air has huge public health benefits, and breathing dirty air has disastrous consequences.”

Decades of medical research has shown that soot is among the most dangerous types of air pollution. Known as “PM 2.5,” for particulate matter that is smaller than 2.5 microns, the microscopic soot particles are so small that it would take 30 or more to span the width of a human hair.

Generated by diesel trucks, power plants, fireplaces and other sources, the tiny particles can travel deep into the lungs, even entering the bloodstream, when people breathe them in high concentrations.

In mild levels they cause itchy eyes and sore throats, coughing and a tight feeling in the chest. In more severe instances, they can trigger asthma attacks, heart attacks, strokes or respiratory failure, particularly in the elderly, infants and people with heart and lung problems.

Smoke levels broke all-time records in California. The Bay Area Air Quality Management District called 30 “Spare the Air” days in a row from Aug. 18 to Sept. 16. Soot levels exceeded federal health standards for 19 days. Air quality was even worse in the Sierra, the Sacramento Valley and parts of Southern California, where it reached 10 to 15 times the federal health standard. On Sept. 9, smoke turned the air across Northern California an apocalyptic orange.

Burke and Sam Heft-Neal, a research scholar at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment, looked at a study published last year that used Medicare data to show that when levels of particulate pollution increased around the United States, the death rate of people 65 and older also increased, as did emergency room visits.

That study, by researchers at the University of Illinois and Georgia State University, found that for each day particulate air pollution increased by about 10% over typical levels — or 1 microgram per cubic meter — there was an increase in deaths and emergency room visits among people over 65 during the next three days.

California has roughly 6 million people older than 65. The Stanford researchers compared air pollution readings during California’s fires with increased death rates and emergency room rates from the previous study. They concluded at least 1,200 “excess deaths” occurred from Aug. 1 to Sept. 10 in California, along with about 4,800 extra emergency room visits.

“These are hidden deaths,” Burke said. “These are people who were probably already sick but for whom air pollution made them even sicker.”

Burke noted Stanford’s analysis doesn’t include young children or people under 65 with serious respiratory or heart conditions.

Other researchers say they generally support Stanford’s conclusions.

“It makes total sense,” said Dr. John Balmes, a professor of medicine at UC San Francisco and a member of the California Air Resources Board. “It should give us pause.”

In recent days, Bay Area air has cleared. But there is still at least another month of fire season.

Balmes and other experts say it’s important when people can smell smoke outdoors that they go inside and close doors and windows. On very smoky days, towels, masking tape or painter’s tape can block leaks. Air purifiers and wearing N95 or KN95 masks also can help.

“I don’t want to panic people who are healthy and without pre-existing disease, but we should reduce exposure as much as possible,” Balmes said. “You should stay indoors and not be outside any more than you have to be. Exercising outdoors when the air quality is bad is particularly problematic.”

The big unanswered question is whether exposure to thick wildfire smoke has long-term effects on healthy people. A study published this summer by the University of Montana found that of 95 people who lived in the small town of Seeley Lake near Missoula — where wildfire smoke choked the area for 49 days in 2017 — roughly one-third had compromised lung function two years later.

Other studies of wildland firefighters are ongoing. But the public and media often pay more attention to flames than smoke, because we’ve evolved that way, said Dr. Anthony Harris, medical director at WorkCare, a health care company based in Anaheim.

“Those things that are immediate we see and are alarmed by,” he said of the flames. “But studies show that fear only lasts for about two weeks in terms of behavior modification. So the notion that I might have a poor outcome in 15 years because of the smoke I am inhaling today just doesn’t cause a rise in the awareness of people.”

Solano County COVID numbers going in wrong direction

Guest dine inside at Johnny Carino’s in the Gateway shopping area in Fairfield, Thursday, Sept. 24, 2020. Restaurants in Solano County got the go-ahead for limited in-restaurant dining, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2020. (Glen Faison/Daily Republic)

Solano case numbers climb; total deaths up to 63

Fairfield Daily Republic, By Todd R. Hansen, September 25, 2020

FAIRFIELD — Solano County is going in the wrong direction – and so are the immediate hopes of moving to an even less restrictive Covid-19 tier.

The county reported Thursday that cases increased by 46, taking the total to 6,278.

Solano County’s daily case average needs to be around 18 in order to graduate from the red tier to the orange tier.

The seven-day testing positivity rate, listed Thursday at 3.9%, remains within the range to advance to the next tier, which requires the rate to be below 4.9%.

Solano County’s public health officer Dr. Bela Matyas addresses the Board of Supervisors about the novel coronavirus pandemic, 3/24/20. (Robinson Kuntz/Daily Republic)

Dr. Bela Matyas, the county public health officer, said two of the three new deaths reported Thursday were past cases, but one is new – an elderly resident who died at home, and like many other Covid-related fatalities, the person had underlying health issues.

The death total is now at 63.

The number of current hospitalizations is at 21, down one from Wednesday, while active cases climbed from 244 to 276, the county reported.

Fairfield added 16 cases to bring its count to 2,051, while Vallejo, now at 2,071, added 11 cases. Vacaville added nine, bringing its total to 1,052.

Suisun City (458) added five cases; Dixon (413) added three; Benicia (165) and Rio Vista (48) each added one. There were no new cases reported in the unincorporated area of the county, which has 22 cases.

The number of completed tests was reported by the county at 86,198, and increase of 513 over Wednesday’s update.

Solano County graduated Tuesday from the most-restrictive purple tier in the state’s color-coded Covid-19 monitoring system to the red tier, which allows limited business reopenings and opens the door for local school districts to soon begin some level of in-person classroom instruction.

A group of friends play cards in the Solano Town Center food court, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2020. Food courts like the one in the Solano Town Center could open to 25% capacity, Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2020. (Robinson Kuntz/Daily Republic)

The purple tier represents widespread transmission of the novel coronavirus that causes Covid-19. The red tier represents substantial transmission of the virus, while the orange tier represents moderate spread of the virus and the yellow tier indicates minimal transmission.  [continued]

3 more COVID deaths in Solano County, 8 reported in last 3 days


[For a complete archive of day by day data, see my Excel ARCHIVE – R.S.] [Note today that some of the numbers of new deaths and hospitalizations this week may not actually be new.  The Fairfield Daily Reporter, quoting Dr. Matyas, is reporting that some of the deaths reported yesterday are updating discrepancies in reporting from last summer.  Dr. Matyas confirmed in an email to me earlier today that some of the spike in hospitalizations are also adjustments rather than new hospitalizations.  No information as yet as to how many are new and how many are old.  Regardless, these illnesses and deaths are still serious, sad and disturbing…  – R.S.]

Thursday, September 24: 46 new cases overnight, 3 more deaths.  Since the outbreak started: 6,278 cases, 63 deaths.Compare previous report, Wednesday, Sept 23:Summary

  • Solano County reported 46 new cases today, total of 6,278 cases since the outbreak started.  Over the last 2 weeks, Solano reported 473 new cases, average of 34 per day.
  • Deaths – SPIKE: 3 new deaths reported yesterday, 2 the day before, and another 3 deaths today, total of 63 Solano deaths.
  • Active cases – Solano reported 32 additional ACTIVE cases today, total of 276.  Note that only 21 of these 276 people are hospitalized, so there are a lot of infected folks out among us, hopefully quarantined.  Is the County equipped to contact trace so many infected persons?  Who knows?  To my knowledge, Solano County has offered no reports on contact tracing.
  • Hospitalizations – the number of currently hospitalized persons fell by 2 today, total of 21.  However, the total number hospitalized since the outbreak started increased by 1 today, total of 383, an increase of 68 in just the last week. (see age group hospitalization stats below).
  • ICU BedsThe County reported 50% of ICU beds available, down 2% from yesterday and down from 56% a  week ago Monday.  (After 7 weeks, still no information about availability of ventilators.)
  • Testing – The County reports today that 513 residents were tested today, new total of 86,198.  Solano has a long way to go: only 19.3% of Solano County’s 447,643 residents (2019) have been tested.

Positive Test Rate

Solano County reported today that our 7-day average test rate rose from 3.3% yesterday to 3.9% today.  Our supposedly smooth 7-day moving average has jumped all over the place recently (see note about delayed adjustments below).  For the record, just two weeks ago we saw Solano rates above 7% for the first time since we peaked at 9.3% on July 22.  Week before last we bottomed out at 2.7%.  The County’s line graph for positive test rate looks like a flat line and tells us absolutely nothing, not worth posting here.  Health officials and news reports focus on percent positive test rates as one of the best metrics for measuring the spread of the virus.  The much more stable California’s relatively stable 7-day test rate remained at it’s lowest point, 2.8% for the 4th consecutive day today(Note that Solano County displays past weeks and months in a 7-day test positivity line graph which also shows daily results.  However, the chart does not display an accurate number of cases for the most recent days, as there is a lag time in receiving test results.  The 7-day curve also lags behind current unknown results.) 

By Age Group

  • Youth 17 and under – 10 new cases today, total of 696 cases, representing 11.1% of the 6,278 total cases.  Note that today’s 10 new youth cases are nearly a quarter of today’s overall 46 new cases.  No new hospitalizations among this age group today, a total of 6 hospitalizations since the outbreak began.  Thankfully, no deathsIn recent weeks it seems too many youth are ignoring public health orders.  Cases among Solano youth rose steadily over the summer, from 5.6% of total cases on June 8 to 11% on August 31 and has remained around 11% since then.  Youth are 22% of Solano’s general population, so this 11% may seem low.  The significance is this: 1) youth numbers have increased steadily and at a faster rate than the other age groups, and 2) youth are SERIOUSLY NOT IMMUNE (!) – in fact 6 youth have now been hospitalized.
  • Persons 18-49 years of age – 25 new cases today, total of 3,763 cases. This age group is 41% of the population in Solano, but represents 60% of the total cases, by far the highest percentage of all age groups.  The County reported no new hospitalizations in this age group today, total of 127 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  No new deaths in this young age group today, total of 5 deaths.  Some in this group are surely ignoring public health orders, and many are providing essential services among us.  I expect his group is a major factor in the spread of the virus.
  • Persons 50-64 years of age – 4 new cases today, total of 1,194 cases.  This age group represents 19% of the 6,278 total cases.
    No new hospitalizations today, total of 104 hospitalized since the outbreak began.  2 new deaths in this age group today, a total of 13 deaths.
  • Persons 65 years or older – Last week Monday, I reported Solano’s LARGEST SINGLE WEEKEND INCREASES in this age group since I began keeping records on April 20: 31 new cases, 3 new hospitalizations and 2 deaths.  Today the County reported 7 new cases, total of 624, 1 new hospitalizations, total of 147, and 1 new death, total of 45 of our elders who died of COVID.  Much of the recent spike in this age group may be related to an outbreak at the Parkrose Gardens Alzheimer’s and Dementia care facility in Fairfield, where 31 patients and 8 staff were reported on September 15 to have tested positive.  This age group’s 624 cases represent 9.9% of the 6,278 total cases.  In this older age group, 23.6% of cases required hospitalization at one time.  This group accounts for 45 of the 63 deaths, or 71%.

City Data

  • Benicia added 1 new case today, total of 165 cases since the outbreak began.
  • Dixon added 3 new cases today, total of 413 cases.
  • Fairfield added 16 new cases today, total of 2,051 cases.
  • Rio Vista added 1 new case today, total of 48 cases.
  • Suisun City added 5 new cases today, total of 458 cases.
  • Vacaville added 9 new cases today, total of 1,052 cases.
  • Vallejo added 11 new cases today, total of 2,071 cases.  (Note that the County’s chart formatted 2071 as the date 9/1/1905…)
  • Unincorporated areas remained steady today, total of 20 cases.

Race / Ethnicity

The County report on race / ethnicity includes case numbers, hospitalizations, deaths and Solano population statistics.  This information is discouragingly similar to national reports that indicate significantly worse outcomes among black and brown Americans.  Note that all of this data surely undercounts Latinx Americans, as there is a large group of “Multirace / Others” which likely is composed mostly of Latinex members of our communities.

  • Asian Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 9% of cases, 11% of hospitalizations, and 19% of deaths.
  • Black Americans are 14% of Solano’s population, and account for 11% of cases, but 18% of hospitalizations, and 24% of deaths.
  • Latinx Americans are 26% of Solano’s population, but account for 31% of cases, 30% of hospitalizations, and 21% of deaths.
  • White Americans are 39% of the population in Solano County, but only account for 21% of cases, 26% of hospitalizations and 25% of deaths.

More…

The County’s new and improved Coronavirus Dashboard is full of much more information, too extensive to cover here on a daily basis.  The Benicia Independent will continue to summarize daily and highlight a report or two.  Check out the Dashboard at https://doitgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=055f81e9fe154da5860257e3f2489d67.

Biden’s campaign assures voters the U.S. ‘is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House’

Yahoo News The Week, by Peter Weber, September 23, 2020

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden assumed reporters wanted to ask him about the lack of charges in the Breonna Taylor killing when he landed in Wilmington on Wednesday night after a trip to North Carolina. They were more curious about his reaction to President Trump’s point-blank refusal to commit to leaving office if the voters reject him in November. “What country are we in?” Biden asked, explaining that he was “being facetious” — and then explaining it again because it’s hard to communicate facetiousness with a face mask on. “Look, he says the most irrational things. I don’t know what to say about it. But it doesn’t surprise me.”

Biden’s campaign had already put out a more pointed statement: “The American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”

lot of people were very disturbed by Trump’s prediction that “there won’t be a transfer [or power], frankly,” if you “get rid of the ballots” — and “it’s a sharply atypical response for a president, certainly,” Philip Bump writes at The Washington Post, trying to parse what Trump meant to say. But “given his rhetoric in 2016, this was not an atypical response for Trump.” But even if you translate Trump in the most generous light, he said, “it’s disconcerting because it reinforces that Trump’s interest in appearing to be victorious remains a primary concern,” certainly more than the legitimacy of America’s constitutional system of government.